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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

FuckmouthedRube said:
Don't think it was blind luck that Obama swept all the swing states except for NC & IN in 2012. While clearly not as strong as Obama's team, Mitt's team was much more quantitatively oriented than Trump's team will be. HRC's campaign won't be as aggressive as Obama's, so doubt they make big reaches for states like GA or UT unless they see high probability of success.
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What I was saying is Obama was a quality candidate running against two other quality candidates. This is as opposed to a candidate like Trump or Cruz who are on the fringes of politics.

I think we agree that in a close election with people like Obama, McCain, Mitt or HRC data mining may provide the difference. However, it likely won't matter in November when you have one competent candidate and one wacko.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary's first major ad buys are in NV, CO, IA, OH, NH, VA, NC, and FL. All swing states that Obama won twice (except for NC). Lock those down early and then chose among AZ, MO, IN, GA, and UT. Interesting that Dems aren't spending yet in PA, MI, and WI. Hillary and Feingold both up 9 points in WI now.

Not popular, but MI GOP Governor Rick Snyder already publicly announced he won't vote for Trump. Same for GOP Governors in MA and MD. Kasich's a purple state Governor who's still refusing to endorse Trump.

Trump's scheduling his rallies around fundraisers, but silly to hold rallies in TX and GA. Needs much more help elsewhere. Trump's campaign may have learned a lesson in Richmond. Held their ATL rally at the Fox rather than Philips Arena.
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Although Trump badly needs PA, I can't see it happening. MI & WI will never go red again but HRC does need to tighten up support in those places and not take them for granted. Like Rube and RJ have said, HRC ground operation isn't fantastic but far superior to Trumps. I am sure Trump thinks he can win this thing just by tweeting and throwing out red meat for the masses at rallies, but there are more folks that are against him (many still on the red team) than for him.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Although Trump badly needs PA, I can't see it happening. MI & WI will never go red again but HRC does need to tighten up support in those places and not take them for granted. Like Rube and RJ have said, HRC ground operation isn't fantastic but far superior to Trumps. I am sure Trump thinks he can win this thing just by tweeting and throwing out red meat for the masses at rallies, but there are more folks that are against him (many still on the red team) than for him.
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Was kinda surprised that PA, MI, and WI weren't part of the initial ads but there's definitely some method to their madness. All but VA have Senators who will be on the ballot. Dems definitely want the Senate back, but they also want to make Garland obstruction an issue too.

Can't trust Trump and can't trust 'Pubs to govern either. HRC would probably prefer to appoint someone younger and more liberal than Garland, but Obama doesn't want to hang him out to dry.

Would not be surprised if the IL Governor is the next 'Pub Governor to diss Trump. Dems will spend what they need to in PA, MI, and WI. Was surprised that Hillary's first appearance was supposed to be in Green Bay. Postponed for now.

RNC is pissed that Trump hasn't done as much fundraising as planned. Will be interesting to see how much time he spends in CA. Can definitely rake in $s, but rioting outside of his rallies may no longer be entirely beneficial to him. Certainly isn't to cops and his own supporters.
 
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FuckmouthedRube said:
Was kinda surprised that PA, MI, and WI weren't part of the initial ads but there's definitely some method to their madness. All but VA have Senators who will be on the ballot. Dems definitely want the Senate back, but they also want to make Garland obstruction an issue too.

Can't trust Trump and can't trust 'Pubs to govern either. HRC would probably prefer to appoint someone younger and more liberal than Garland, but Obama doesn't want to hang him out to dry.

Would not be surprised if the IL Governor is the next 'Pub Governor to diss Trump. Dems will spend what they need to in PA, MI, and WI. Was surprised that Hillary's first appearance was supposed to be in Green Bay. Postponed for now.

RNC is pissed that Trump hasn't done as much fundraising as planned. Will be interesting to see how much time he spends in CA. Can definitely rake in $s, but rioting outside of his rallies may no longer be entirely beneficial to him. Certainly isn't to cops and his own supporters.
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The reason HRC was going to be in Green Bay is because this is how the Obama machine targeted voters who were independent and totally undecided using data mining. They figured in the whole state of WI, the most undecided were in the Green Bay area. They totally covered that town door to door and got almost every undecided vote. They did this in all the swing states using data mining. This was the same strategy Cruz used in his ground game and it would have worked were Trump not on the ballot and him such a cock.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/richard-armitage-endorses-clinton-224431
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It's 1 thing for Bush the Elder folks (like a Baker or Scowcroft) to support Clinton. There has been a fair amount of continuity in foreign policy between the Bush the Elder, Clinton and Obama administrations. But it's something else to start getting endorsements from the Bush Lite folks. That said, Drumpf is really scaring a lot of Pubs with his ban the Muslims type comments and his post-Orlando comments. Drumpf comes across as more of an isolationist or mostly non-interventionist (though he'll magically take care of ISIS somehow), but his penchant for saying whatever offensive thing is on his mind at any given time rightly scares most anyone who has been involved in foreign policy positions.
 
Azdeac said:
A competent candidate? Inserting my best John McEnroe impersonation "You cannot be serious."
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She may not be the best choice, but Hillary has a competent team around her. She doesn't make a lot of friends or a lot of mistakes.
 
JManslow said:
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That quote has to be from the '90s (i.e. after Trump had owned a USFL team and Marge Schott had exploded). Hard to believe there may be some upside to Trump's 94% disapproval rating among the Blacks.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
That quote has to be from the '90s (i.e. after Trump had owned a USFL team and Marge Schott had exploded). Hard to believe there may be some upside to Trump's 94% disapproval rating among the Blacks.
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It's from 91, I believe. From a disgruntled ex-employee, but it reads JUST like something Trump would say.


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He's a fucking racist! Sorry a little drunk watching American soccer, but Don is a douche.
 
JManslow said:
It's from 91, I believe. From a disgruntled ex-employee, but it reads JUST like something Trump would say.


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Get that some people are pissed off about political correctness, but for decades people have been getting fired from high profile jobs and become social pariahs for blatently racist comments. The battle flag's not going back up in SC, Paula Deen won't become a commercial superstar, John Rocker won't become Commissioner of baseball, and Donald Sterling won't be welcomed back into the NBA during a Trump presidency. Ship sailed a long time ago.

Ali died a national hero and Cosby and OJ are shunned. Country's changed a lot in the last 50 years and Trump's waging a campaign that didn't work for George Wallace in 1968. OWGs can be hyper pissed about it, but that anger alone's not going to win the presidency now or in the future.
 
Deacon923 said:
The coming wave of anti-Trump negative ads. Trump needs to raise money but apparently has little interest in doing so.
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Trump's negatives among women and Latinos are so high now that most of the national swing states and the populated West have all but disappeared for Trump. Nothing gained by HRC's campaign and SuperPACs from additional ad spending to drive Trump from 89% to 98% disapproval ratings.

Dems need to shift spending from ads to GOTV activities and select senate races. Trump's erratic behavior and lackluster fundraising have hosed the GOP big time.
 
Deacon923 said:
This may have been posted before, by me or someone else, but I think it's a really interesting read and belongs on this thread. https://medium.com/@michaelarnovitz/thinking-about-hillary-a-plea-for-reason-308fce6d187c#.cgjt6a125 It's a data-driven discussion of the yuge double standards that are applied to Clinton and that seem to drive much of the Hilary Hate.
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The article is bad and Hillary is also bad. The swings in approval rating when in/seeking office versus being out of office aren't in any way unique to her or even a sex thing. George Bush (reminder: the worst POTUS since Nixon and arguably bottom 5 overall) went from a 33% approval in February 2009 to 52% in May 2015. A person who is removed from partisan politics is more popular than that same person when engaged in partisan politics.
 
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