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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

This may have been posted before, by me or someone else, but I think it's a really interesting read and belongs on this thread. https://medium.com/@michaelarnovitz/thinking-about-hillary-a-plea-for-reason-308fce6d187c#.cgjt6a125 It's a data-driven discussion of the yuge double standards that are applied to Clinton and that seem to drive much of the Hilary Hate.

And this claim of unabated mendacity is particularly interesting, because while it is not the oldest defamation aimed at Hillary, it is the one that most effortlessly glides across partisan lines. Indeed, for a surprisingly large percentage of the electorate, the claim that Hillary is innately dishonest is simply accepted as a given. It is an accusation and conviction so ingrained in the conversation about her that any attempt to even question it is often met with shock. And yet here’s the thing: it’s not actually true. Politifact, the Pulitzer prize-winning fact-checking project, determined for example that Hillary was actually the most truthful candidate (of either Party) in the 2016 election season. And in general Politifact has determined that Hillary is more honest than most (but not all) politicians they have tracked over the years.
Also instructive is Jill Abramson’s recent piece in the Guardian. Abramson, a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal as well as former Executive Editor of the New York Times, had this to say about Hillary’s honesty: “As an editor I’ve launched investigations into her business dealings, her fundraising, her foundation and her marriage. As a reporter my stories stretch back to Whitewater. I’m not a favorite in Hillaryland. That makes what I want to say next surprising. Hillary Clinton is fundamentally honest and trustworthy.”

I've seen this before -- good piece. The Wrangors of the world have effectively been brainwashed over the last 20 years by the constant, misogyny-laden drumbeat of "Hillary is a liar". If she says what they deem a lie, she is a congenital liar. If a male politician does the same, he is just being a politician.
 
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And this claim of unabated mendacity is particularly interesting, because while it is not the oldest defamation aimed at Hillary, it is the one that most effortlessly glides across partisan lines. Indeed, for a surprisingly large percentage of the electorate, the claim that Hillary is innately dishonest is simply accepted as a given. It is an accusation and conviction so ingrained in the conversation about her that any attempt to even question it is often met with shock. And yet here’s the thing: it’s not actually true. Politifact, the Pulitzer prize-winning fact-checking project, determined for example that Hillary was actually the most truthful candidate (of either Party) in the 2016 election season. And in general Politifact has determined that Hillary is more honest than most (but not all) politicians they have tracked over the years.
Also instructive is Jill Abramson’s recent piece in the Guardian. Abramson, a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal as well as former Executive Editor of the New York Times, had this to say about Hillary’s honesty: “As an editor I’ve launched investigations into her business dealings, her fundraising, her foundation and her marriage. As a reporter my stories stretch back to Whitewater. I’m not a favorite in Hillaryland. That makes what I want to say next surprising. Hillary Clinton is fundamentally honest and trustworthy.”

I've seen this before -- good piece. The Wrangors of the world have effectively been brainwashed over the last 20 years by the constant, misogyny-laden drumbeat of "Hillary is a liar". If she says what they deem a lie, she is a congenital liar. If a male politician does the same, he is just being a politician.

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I have no idea why people would think Hillary dishonest. I mean really! It is so crazy. Those brainwashed idiots.

 
The issue is not whether every word ever spoken by her is true. Clearly, she lies and panders like any other politician. The issue is the clear double standard. The field she ran against are all objectively bigger liars than she is - especially Trump - but only she is"lyin' Hillary" in the popular imagination.

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Motorola, UPS, JP Morgan and others are not going to be sponsors at the RNC Convention like they were in 2012. Hmmmmm....
 
Trump is just as big of a liar. You won't hear me say anything different, and I don't think the media gives him any benefit of the doubt on honesty. She doesn't lie 'like every other politican'. There are plenty of candidates who ran this year who have a very honest political career. Everyone lies at some point, but she has a pattern of dishonesty. You take a guy like Bernie Sanders and compare his career. Or take John Kasich. Even take a guy like Ted Cruz. I hate Cruz as a politican, but for the most part he has run a pretty honest career. He takes a stand and stays by it even when the waters get a little rough.

So it is not a double standard to call Hillary an exceptionally prolific liar. She has very much earned that moniker. Trump is NO better (might be even worse, but his dishonesty isn't even the top of the list for me why I would never vote for him) so I guess Hillary has that going for her. Its been said before about Hillary, but it is sad to watch Wake Forest graduates use the UNC Cheat defense of 'I will now admit that she cheats, but everyone does it so if you hold her to some standard of honesty you are just holding her to a double standard'. It is an embarrassing partisan attempt to deflect a major concern for a presidential candidate. Just because Trump sucks even worse doesn't mean Hillary's clear and evident flaws can't be discussed.
 
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You take a guy like Bernie Sanders and compare his career. Or take John Kasich. Even take a guy like Ted Cruz. I hate Cruz as a politican, but for the most part he has run a pretty honest career. He takes a stand and stays by it even when the waters get a little rough.

you have no idea if any of this is actually true.
 
Trump's negatives among women and Latinos are so high now that most of the national swing states and the populated West have all but disappeared for Trump. Nothing gained by HRC's campaign and SuperPACs from additional ad spending to drive Trump from 89% to 98% disapproval ratings.

Dems need to shift spending from ads to GOTV activities and select senate races. Trump's erratic behavior and lackluster fundraising have hosed the GOP big time.

I think you'll see HRC's campaign mostly stick with the latter: positive messages and GOTV efforts in swing states. The SuperPACs, however, are going to have a field day attacking Trump for the next 4.5 months.
 
Trump is just as big of a liar. You won't hear me say anything different, and I don't think the media gives him any benefit of the doubt on honesty. She doesn't lie 'like every other politican'. There are plenty of candidates who ran this year who have a very honest political career. Everyone lies at some point, but she has a pattern of dishonesty. You take a guy like Bernie Sanders and compare his career. Or take John Kasich. Even take a guy like Ted Cruz. I hate Cruz as a politican, but for the most part he has run a pretty honest career. He takes a stand and stays by it even when the waters get a little rough.

So it is not a double standard to call Hillary an exceptionally prolific liar. She has very much earned that moniker. Trump is NO better (might be even worse, but his dishonesty isn't even the top of the list for me why I would never vote for him) so I guess Hillary has that going for her. Its been said before about Hillary, but it is sad to watch Wake Forest graduates use the UNC Cheat defense of 'I will now admit that she cheats, but everyone does it so if you hold her to some standard of honesty you are just holding her to a double standard'. It is an embarrassing partisan attempt to deflect a major concern for a presidential candidate. Just because Trump sucks even worse doesn't mean Hillary's clear and evident flaws can't be discussed.

Did you even read the article? The things you are saying are objectively not true. I know you are anti-Trump so I'm not painting you with that brush, but otherwise you have swallowed the "Hillary is a dirty liar" bait hook, line, and sinker. I'm not really a big Hilary fan either, mainly because I found the move to NY to get the Senate seat to be opportunist and because I don't think her performance as SOS was very impressive. I just think the "Hillary is a prolific liar" canard needs to be called out for what it is, the result of 2 decades of anti-Clinton messaging with a big dose of sexism.
 
The SuperPACs, however, are going to have a field day attacking Trump for the next 4.5 months.

No doubt there's still a lot of personal dirt (affairs, abortion(s)?, love children?) out there on Trump, so curious if the SuperPACs ever release any of that kind of stuff. Trump's already telegraphed he's going to go after Bubba for the '90s so there may be some form of retaliation. Surprised Trump didn't have Kathleen Willey appear with him in Richmond.

Mitt's campaign didn't treat Newt gently, but they didn't totally nuke him either. Don't think 270 is the issue anymore. Trump won't quit, but he's gotta know there's still nasty dirt out there that would hurt and embarrass his kids about how poorly he treated their moms.
 
Did you even read the article? The things you are saying are objectively not true. I know you are anti-Trump so I'm not painting you with that brush, but otherwise you have swallowed the "Hillary is a dirty liar" bait hook, line, and sinker. I'm not really a big Hilary fan either, mainly because I found the move to NY to get the Senate seat to be opportunist and because I don't think her performance as SOS was very impressive. I just think the "Hillary is a prolific liar" canard needs to be called out for what it is, the result of 2 decades of anti-Clinton messaging with a big dose of sexism.

Sorry if I don't find the article convincing. There is an article for everything that you want to prove. Crying sexism is the cherry on top of the cake. When in doubt, label those who disagree with you. Sorry 923, but you are on the wrong side of history with this one.

Here is a perfect example from a Politico article that judged Hillary as the most honest:

http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/article/2016/mar/27/final-five-truth-o-meter/

Clinton

2. "Americans haven’t had a raise in 15 years."

Rating: Mostly True.

PolitiFact National found that inflation-adjusted median household income had dropped 7 percent over that period, while earnings for wage and salary workers increased a modest 2 percent.

So the statement was empirically false as over the time period wages HAD RISEN 2%. Modest or not, wages had increased. Yet that statement is graded 'Mostly True'

Kasich

2. "As governor, Kasich delivered the largest tax cut in the nation."

Rating: Mostly False.

This claim in a Kasich ad was an exaggeration, PolitiFact Ohio found. Ohio’s cuts were significant, but when you factor in state population and economic size, Kansas’ reduction may be larger over time. Plus, the size of the tax cut wasn’t entirely Kasich’s idea, since the Legislature made it bigger than he first proposed.

'Kansas reduction MAY be larger over time. No empirical proof, instead simply speculation. In addition they interpret the event to be what they want 'the tax cut wasn't entirely Kasich's idea since the legislature made it bigger' Even if Kansas tax cuts in the end turned out to be a little bit large based on a more complicated mathematical model is it really a proper evaluation to look at a statement whose root purpose is to say we delivered huge tax cuts and rate it MOSTLY FALSE simply because another evaluator placed it a close #2 out of 50 states instead of #1? That statement should have been either mostly true or true.

In addition when you look at the statements that the article is evaluating they are evaluating stump speeches or debates. They aren't looking at records. It is one thing to tell a stump speech white lie (OBAMA IS TAKING JOBS AWAY!) and it is another thing to tell a blatant lie about where you stand politically or about something you have done (I HAVE TURNED OVER ALL THE EMAILS!). So when I look at the politico grades, or any other article from traditional left leaning sources I realize that media is malleable. That article had an agenda, and it fulfilled it. You must only look at the two examples above for proof. In the first there is empirical evidence that Clinton's statement is false, but the article judges it as mostly true because some of other form of financial well being chart was stagnant (but wages had indeed increased). Kasich makes a statement against no empirical evidence is submitted and instead speculation and opinion degrade the statement to a mostly false.

Those articles are political theatre for the biased masses. They are written for people like you to read and say 'SEE! I told you Clinton was honest. This article proves it because it uses numbers!' Those numbers still come down to a judgement call by a human, and after reading the judgement calls of that article I think they have a clear agenda.

If you are truly of the opinion that Hillary Clinton is a politician that can be trusted to keep her word then I am not sure what I can say to persuade you otherwise. You have taken a position that even 40% of democrats don't take. Across the board in pretty much every state's exit polling when people responded Yes to the following question:

'Honesty is important to me in a political candidate (yes or no).

They overwhelmingly voted for someone other than Hillary. She usually garnered around 5-10% of that vote. So if the media is in on a hatchet job against Hillary's honesty then they have succeeded in a manner that has never been seen before because they have convinced both sides of the aisle of a 'Falsehood'
 
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The issue is not whether every word ever spoken by her is true. Clearly, she lies and panders like any other politician. The issue is the clear double standard. The field she ran against are all objectively bigger liars than she is - especially Trump - but only she is"lyin' Hillary" in the popular imagination.

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I get the double standard thing to an extent. And she does lie less than Drumpf - most everyone else on Earth does. But I still think she's 1 of the worst panderers and shows more flexibility in her positions of all the pols in Washington. Bubba was the same way, but he was just a whole lot better at getting away with it because he was probably the best politician of our generation with great instincts. Whereas she has a bad personality and bad political instincts.
 
I get the double standard thing to an extent. And she does lie less than Drumpf - most everyone else on Earth does. But I still think she's 1 of the worst panderers and shows more flexibility in her positions of all the pols in Washington. Bubba was the same way, but he was just a whole lot better at getting away with it because he was probably the best politician of our generation with great instincts. Whereas she has a bad personality and bad political instincts.

+1
 
Sweet, Shoo still isn't using his brain.

If your cherry-picked and still incorrect analysis of those two examples from politifact to conclude, like bsf, that politifact is the #librulmedia, constitutes the use of your brain, then I'm surprised you're not voting for Trump - you're right in his wheelhouse.

This analysis is almost shockingly stupid:

'Kansas reduction MAY be larger over time. No empirical proof, instead simply speculation. In addition they interpret the event to be what they want 'the tax cut wasn't entirely Kasich's idea since the legislature made it bigger' Even if Kansas tax cuts in the end turned out to be a little bit large based on a more complicated mathematical model is it really a proper evaluation to look at a statement whose root purpose is to say we delivered huge tax cuts and rate it MOSTLY FALSE simply because another evaluator placed it a close #2 out of 50 states instead of #1? That statement should have been either mostly true or true.

In addition when you look at the statements that the article is evaluating they are evaluating stump speeches or debates. They aren't looking at records. It is one thing to tell a stump speech white lie (OBAMA IS TAKING JOBS AWAY!) and it is another thing to tell a blatant lie about where you stand politically or about something you have done (I HAVE TURNED OVER ALL THE EMAILS!). So when I look at the politico grades, or any other article from traditional left leaning sources I realize that media is malleable. That article had an agenda, and it fulfilled it. You must only look at the two examples above for proof. In the first there is empirical evidence that Clinton's statement is false, but the article judges it as mostly true because some of other form of financial well being chart was stagnant (but wages had indeed increased). Kasich makes a statement against no empirical evidence is submitted and instead speculation and opinion degrade the statement to a mostly false."

I take it you didn't read this:

http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2016/mar/09/john-kasich/john-kasichs-tax-cut-largest-nation/

or this:

http://www.politifact.com/iowa/statements/2016/mar/11/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-ad-points-out-its-been-15-years-am/

Do better.
 
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I get the double standard thing to an extent. And she does lie less than Drumpf - most everyone else on Earth does. But I still think she's 1 of the worst panderers and shows more flexibility in her positions of all the pols in Washington. Bubba was the same way, but he was just a whole lot better at getting away with it because he was probably the best politician of our generation with great instincts. Whereas she has a bad personality and bad political instincts.

Is there a reason you won't just spell it Trump?
 
Maybe it's along the lines why the GOP calls it the "democrat party" or refused to chastise the birthers or demand Obama, Hilary and others use a specific term for our enemies.
 
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3e0b...attleground-plan-relies-skeptical-gop-leaders

Allegedly the Trump campaign has 30 full time staffers nationally!?! Trump claims they'll compete in 15 states (all blue or purple except for GA) with an average of 2 full time staffers per targeted state. Now understand why Dems aren't advertising in PA, MI, and WI yet.

Trump doesn't believe in data mining/micro targeting and Reince had to convince him that the RNC and Trump need to invest $140M into analytics from joint fundraising. Dems are able to piggyback off 2008/2012 investments to go after tiny markets like Green Bay.

Relying on the RNC, but don't see how 'Pubs can hold the Senate and win the presidency if they have to run Trump's campaign. Trump's also lukewarm on party fundraising. Dems will be stoked to see DWS go, but can't understand how Reince still has a job.
 
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