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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

Wrangor said:
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Haha, great movie.

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Deacon923 said:
no. too gerrymandered.
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Yeah, that's crazy talk. Too many seats to take and too gerrymandered. But I've begun to think the senate is more likely than not. I think I'd set the O/U at 51 Dems, maybe even 51.5.
 
Deacon923 said:
no. too gerrymandered.
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Darrell Issa's district in North San Diego County/Southern Orange County is conservative, but less so than his prior district. Dem was within 5 points of him last night. Not inconceivable that Issa loses in November since Trump is so toxic in CA. GOP isn't losing the House nationally, but will take some high profile unexpected hits.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Darrell Issa's district in North San Diego County/Southern Orange County is conservative, but less so than his prior district. Dem was within 5 points of him last night. Not inconceivable that Issa loses in November since Trump is so toxic in CA. GOP isn't losing the House nationally, but will take some high profile unexpected hits.
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Yeah, I also think the Senate could see a huge swing. I just think Trump is the most toxic candidate since Wallace and is going to implode the Republican Party.


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JManslow said:
Yeah, I also think the Senate could see a huge swing. I just think Trump is the most toxic candidate since Wallace and is going to implode the Republican Party.


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In some ways I am hoping it does. Just don't want it to swing the House. The Republican Party needs a good look in the mirror. Hillary is going to suck as president so all the republicans need to do is get their act together and follow the lead of guys like Paul Ryan. ,I'd get, election would be a republican windfall and the party could move forward without all the crazy baggage of the past ten years.

In Donald trump the republicans are giving crazy a chance. When it inevitably fails, the party can begin the heal. The question is how deep will the wounds be?


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PhDeac said:
I saw she got effectively primaried, but catch me up on the guy and what this means.
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Uh, dude?

"the guy" is a sitting Congressman whose district got redrawn by the evil, children-kickin' North Carolina Republicans who will stop at nothing to stop....uh,....Renee Elmers.

Maybe you guys need a second opinion around the office. Just sayin'.
 
If Obama's Justice Department succeeds in keeping her out of jail, I think Hillary will probably win this election. What happens after that? What are the Democrats going to do to continue funding all the giveaway programs they are using to buy votes when they run out of OPM? Just start printing more money? The German Weimar Republic tried that in 1921. It didn't end well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

" The alternative was some combination of running a budget deficit and simply creating more money, each of which increased the supply of German currency on the market and reduced that currency's price. When the German people realized that their money was rapidly losing value, they tried to spend it quickly. This increase in monetary velocity caused still more rapid increase in prices, creating a vicious cycle.[34] This placed the government and banks between two unacceptable alternatives: if they stopped the inflation this would cause immediate bankruptcies, unemployment, strikes, hunger, violence, collapse of civil order, insurrection, and revolution.[35] If they continued the inflation they would default on their foreign debt. The attempts to avoid both unemployment and insolvency ultimately failed when Germany had both."
 
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They will probably install your "no one can make more than a million dollars a year" plan to help provide for the less fortunate.
 
bobknightfan said:
If Obama's Justice Department succeeds in keeping her out of jail, I think Hillary will probably win this election. What happens after that? What are the Democrats going to do to continue funding all the giveaway programs they are using to buy votes when they run out of OPM? Just start printing more money? The German Weimar Republic tried that in 1921. It didn't end well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

" The alternative was some combination of running a budget deficit and simply creating more money, each of which increased the supply of German currency on the market and reduced that currency's price. When the German people realized that their money was rapidly losing value, they tried to spend it quickly. This increase in monetary velocity caused still more rapid increase in prices, creating a vicious cycle.[34] This placed the government and banks between two unacceptable alternatives: if they stopped the inflation this would cause immediate bankruptcies, unemployment, strikes, hunger, violence, collapse of civil order, insurrection, and revolution.[35] If they continued the inflation they would default on their foreign debt. The attempts to avoid both unemployment and insolvency ultimately failed when Germany had both."
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Great. He found the thread. Time to start a new one.
 
Trump's allegedly going to New Hampshire on Monday to trash the Clintons for their past misdeeds. Get that he can't and doesn't want to discuss issues and just trash his opponents (worked in the primaries), but why give that speech in NH? At least it's a swing state, but it's too tiny to be the tipping point. Why not give his worst of the '90s kill shot speech in PA, FL, or OH?
 
Trump doesn't care about location. He wants an audience, protestors, and media coverage.
 
Maybe he sees it as the only slightly Pub state in the Northeast or maybe he wants to kill Ayotte's reelection chances.
 
Hassan has to love that he's coming. Ayotte probably just wants Trump to stay as far away from NH as possible.
 
Latest poll from Pennsylvania (June 8):

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton has 41% to 40% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 3%. In a head to head match up, Clinton and Trump tie at 44%. Similarly to what we found on the Florida poll we released yesterday, Republicans are more unified around Trump (79/8) than Democrats are around Clinton (75/15). That dynamic is what's making the state competitive.
Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41, which is pretty similar to Barack Obama's margin of victory in the state in 2012. Bernie Sanders has a substantial advantage over Trump, 45/36, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 1%. In a head to head contest Sanders leads Trump 51/39.
Pennsylvania is a great microcosm of the issue Clinton faces in winning over Sanders fans. Among people who support Sanders in a head to head match up with Trump, only 72% support Clinton in the general. 10% would go to Trump, 6% to Stein, 4% to Johnson, and 9% are undecided. If Clinton could win over even just half of those Sanders supporting hold outs her lead over Trump would go from a tenuous 41-40 to a comfortable 47-40. Whether it's possible for her to do that time will tell.
“The biggest question in the Presidential race at this point is whether hesitant Bernie Sanders fans are going to get behind Hillary Clinton or not,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “In Pennsylvania if the answer to that
question is yes, Clinton will be a strong favorite in the state. If the answer to that question is no, the state will be a toss up.”
 
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