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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

Wakeforest22890 said:
Politifact won a Pulitzer Prize for reporting and has been the subject of criticism from both the left and the right since its inception.
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They're also undefeated as an offensive coordinator in the ACC. It doesn't mean that they are beyond bias, especially into the rendering of "fact-checking" of a statement of opinion as to causation.

Do you believe that a political website, even an award winning one, can be free of bias?
 
There's a strawman waiting in the sky
He'd like to come and meet us
But he thinks he'd blow our minds
There's a strawman waiting in the sky
He's told us not to blow it
'Cause he knows it's all worthwhile
He told me
Let JHMD lose it
Let JHMD use it
Let all the children boogie
 
Wrangor said:
Moving left will simply give more and more power to the Democrats who will make decisions that will only enrage the crazies even more. So your solution is a good one, for Democrats.
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That's an interesting position. The Tea Party and Trump waves have caused the GOP to lurch hard to the right. Are you suggesting they don't need to course-correct back to a more center-right disposition because it would equate to "moving left"?

Wrangor said:
Middle of the road conservatives to stay right where they are, persevere, and look for opportunities to unite the party. Best way to do this might be for a crazy (Trump) to suffer an an embarrassing defeat on the national stage, thus opening the opportunity for sane republicans to make the case to the tea party, etc... that only by joining together will a conservative agenda be advanced.
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Rather than uniting the party, shouldn't the goal be for the party to evolve the way the national electorate has evolved (i.e. the post-2012 stated objective)? Or do you suppose that a united GOP focused on their traditional platform positions will still appeal to the 2018/2020 American populace?

Wrangor said:
Paul Ryan is that kind of politician, but it remains to be seen what kind of opportunity he will get, and whether his voice will be heard. Right now you have to give Trump his wings, and hope he flies to close to the sun.
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If Paul Ryan (and thus, Mitt Romney) is that kind of politician, why did they lose so handily in 2012?
 
Wrangor said:
No it isn't. In 2012 the sane people one and the crazies didn't get on board. In 2016 the crazies won, and the sane people aren't on board. There is a civil war right now in the Republican party, but the answer isn't for the sane conservatives to move even farther left, it is to reach the crazies and bring them to us. That is the better path for American in general. Moving left will simply give more and more power to the Democrats who will make decisions that will only enrage the crazies even more. So your solution is a good one, for Democrats. Middle of the road conservatives to stay right where they are, persevere, and look for opportunities to unite the party. Best way to do this might be for a crazy (Trump) to suffer an an embarrassing defeat on the national stage, thus opening the opportunity for sane republicans to make the case to the tea party, etc... that only by joining together will a conservative agenda be advanced. Paul Ryan is that kind of politician, but it remains to be seen what kind of opportunity he will get, and whether his voice will be heard. Right now you have to give Trump his wings, and hope he flies to close to the sun.
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imrs.php
 
If someone puts it on a graph, it must be true and conclusive, right? #advancedstats #kenpomforprez #hinkewashosed
 
Trump doesn't believe in data mining and Reince had to convince him that $140M of joint fundraising would go to quant analytics. Hillary's and Obama's first joint appearance will be in Green Bay next week. Not Milwaukee or Madison. From 2008 & 2012, Obama's campaign vets know exactly where the persuadable voters in swing states are. They'll use Biden in Bucks County and Scranton, PA. Know where to campaign and where to spend on GOTV in large metro areas.

Trump can get huge friendly crowds in red states or hostile protestors in areas he won't win and hope for riots, but doesn't have a deep enough surrogate bench to get traction in swing districts in swing states.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Trump doesn't believe in data mining and Reince had to convince him that $140M of joint fundraising would go to quant analytics. Hillary's and Obama's first joint appearance will be in Green Bay next week. Not Milwaukee or Madison. From 2008 & 2012, Obama's campaign vets know exactly where the persuadable voters in swing states are. They'll use Biden in Bucks County and Scranton, PA. Know where to campaign and where to spend on GOTV in large metro areas.

Trump can get huge friendly crowds in red states or hostile protestors in areas he won't win and hope for riots, but doesn't have a deep enough surrogate bench to get traction in swing districts in swing states.
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Exactly. Send Obama to metropolitan areas in swing states, Biden to the Rust Belt, Warren/Sanders to college campuses. Trump doesn't have anyone remotely in any of those surrogates' leagues.


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JManslow said:
Exactly. Send Obama to metropolitan areas in swing states, Biden to the Rust Belt, Warren/Sanders to college campuses. Trump doesn't have anyone remotely in any of those surrogates' leagues.


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They could ping pong Trump's psyche from all directions.

I hope they only jab between now and the end of August. If they go after too strongly and too soon, he'll melt down and there will be time to replace him. If he melts down, right before or right after Labor Day, they are stuck with him.

The other thing is if they don't him that hard for 6-8 weeks, he'll get cocky and open himself up even more. Then, they hit from all sides and on different issues.

It will be fun to see him explode like a water balloon or even better a pinata. :)
 
RJKarl said:
Other than Joe Isuzu, no person in American public life has been less fact checked than Donald Trump. In a profession filled with liars, Donald Trump is the Usain Bolt, Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Jerry Rice combined of liars.

Hell, if Trump was in Hershey the night Wilt scored 100, Trump would have said he actually got 300.
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wtf?
 
Put the word "fact" in your name, hire some kid fresh out of college to write articles, and some people will foolishly take what you say as gospel.
 
JManslow said:
Exactly. Send Obama to metropolitan areas in swing states, Biden to the Rust Belt, Warren/Sanders to college campuses. Trump doesn't have anyone remotely in any of those surrogates' leagues.
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Michele Bachmann briefly left the witness protection program to appear on TV for Trump last night. She'll help be a yuge help in MN & IA. Brewer & Arapaio will blanket AZ and additionally gift wrap CO, NV, and NM. Brown and Biden will tag team PA, OH, and MI while Kasich, Portman, Ryan, Walker, and Johnson won't be seen with Trump in their states. Trump's hoping for a mass shitstorm of riots in Cleveland. Will have to spend way more time and resources than McCain or Mitt in IN, NC, MO, AZ, GA, and UT. Also will have less money and weaker national and swing state organizations than they had. Trump's not just hurting for surrogates, he also doesn't have anyone remotely close to Obama or Bubba as fundraisers.

Bill & Hillary split up CA with Bubba in SoCal and HRC in NorCal (mostly fundraising). Trump's terrified of Bubba mocking him on the stump, so he wants to bring up all the Clinton baggage. Best case scenario for Trump is that Bubba predominantly fundraises, although they'll also selectively use him in FL, VA, NC, and NH in the Fall.

Obama will also primarily fundraise, but he'll be a Fall closer to rev up voters in Philly, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, and Las Vegas. Relishes giving Trump shit and wants to take a final victory lap, but also has to keep donor relationships warm for his library. Will fundraise a lot in CA, NYC, and Chicago.

Warren & Sanders will blanket college campuses, but also be used in WA, OR, IA, MN, WI, NH, MA, RI, VT, and ME. The Clintons can use BFF Howard Dean in those states too just for yucks.

With two minority females and no 'Pubs on the Senate ballot in CA, Dems only need to fundraise in CA, but could use Obama and Bubba for GOTV events in LA and SF. Also could use Biden in SD and Orange County, Bernie and Warren in Oakland and Sac, and Castro or Perez in San Jose, Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. Depends if they want to use CA to pad national popular vote totals or allocate those resources elsewhere.

Dems aren't worried about getting to 270 EVs. Bigger questions are do they want to run up the popular vote margin by padding the score in CA, NY, or IL, spend more resources than necessary in states with vulnerable GOP Senators, or give 'Pubs a chilling look at coming attractions by taking serious runs at AZ and GA or selectively going after significant popular vote pockets in TX. Anything above 52 Dems in the Senate would be gravy. Not Dems' fault that GOP base didn't care/want to change after 2012. Only cost them three more SC Justices and the Latino vote for the foreseeable future, but maybe true believers will finally win the definitive final battles on immigration reform, abortion, gun control, and LGBT rights in 2020 or 2024 at the very latest.

Kaine would be a safe, boring governing pick, but Castro would be a much stronger electoral and bid for the future pick. Franken or Perez would split the difference.
 
Vox did a good article on the short VP bench. They made a great case against Castro. When he was mayor of SA, it was a part time position paying $3000 a year. The city is primarily run by city council. He's done nothing of note in Washington. If he really wants to make a national splash, he needs to go back home and take down Cruz.

I'm all for Franken. I'll accept Warren but I'd rather have her in the Senate. I also fear a two woman ticket may be too much for a lot of Bros out there.
 
PhDeac said:
Vox did a good article on the short VP bench. They made a great case against Castro. When he was mayor of SA, it was a part time position paying $3000 a year. The city is primarily run by city council. He's done nothing of note in Washington. If he really wants to make a national splash, he needs to go back home and take down Cruz.

I'm all for Franken. I'll accept Warren but I'd rather have her in the Senate. I also fear a two woman ticket may be too much for a lot of Bros out there.
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Ph,

Phone call for you. It's somebody named "2008". Not sure what it's about.
 
Asked this on another thread: why should I be terrified of Hillary Clinton as president? What is she going to do that will make us worse off four years from now? Serious question.

Second question. Why shouldn't I be terrified of Donald Trump?
 
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