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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

Honestly, I think either the ACC convinces Notre Dame to join and we stay at 15 and go no division or maybe do Notre Dame + WV with a 16 North / South split. But without Notre Dame, the ACC really doesn't have long term viability in my opinion. The difference in money is going to be too much compared to the SEC and BIG for the top programs to compete year end, year out. You're basically talking almost a billion dollars in revenue difference over a decade after the SEC's new deal with Texas and Oklahoma.
 
ND has no need to join a conference unless it’s the Super League.
 
ND has no need to join a conference unless it’s the Super League.

I mostly agree, but at some point their pride is going to catch up to them. Even ND can't compete when the major competitors are making $50MM+ more a year. The biggest fear for the ACC is ND joins the BIG a some point. I know they are supposedly locked with the ACC if the join a conference, but all of these deals are fluid and due to lawyer negotiations and buyouts.
 
If ND wanted to join the Big Ten, they would have a long time ago. I think they’ll stay independent unless the ACC can make a deal that’s competitive with the SEC. A deal with the PAC-12 could be attractive to ND.
 
The one big card I think the ACC has left is if they can form a mega conference with the PAC-12 and get out of the current ESPN deal. Then they could try to work a deal with NBC to bring ND into the conference which could help preserve their rivalries with USC and Stanford. NBC, USA, and NBCSN could air three or four games a week each. Peacock could air even more.

The backup plan would be to cut a deal with CBS to replace their SEC deal but expand it to include games on the CW, one or two of their other networks, and Paramount+.

The ACC needs to do something big and do it now. Staying with ESPN as the SEC’s little brother is not going to do it.

I like your willingness to think outside of the box, but the ACC leaving ESPN would be a very high risk move... I can't imagine they'd even consider it.
 
What’s the risk? The majority of ACC games are on ACC Network which only serves the purpose of barebones ESPN broadcasting or regional Bally Sports networks that streaming services don’t even carry. Once the SEC ESPN deal kicks in, the ACC will barely have a foothold on the network. The ACC has to do something to make up the gap.
 
The risk is breaking that tv contract likely breaks the grant of rights or at least give grounds for challenging it which would allow open season for any ACC school thinking about leaving the conference.
 
The purpose of doing it would be to keep schools from leaving. If Clemson wants to go, they’ll find a way out.
 
Leaving ESPN makes it easier for ACC schools to justify leaving the conference.

The biggest issue w/ the ACC Network is that it isn't carried by Comcast/Xfinity... Make a deal there and it's not such a shitty foothold at ESPN.

Jumping to something like CBS/NBC and their 2nd (3rd?) tier streaming platforms and mediocre (at best) cable channels is a risky move. There is so much going on with these content providers / streaming platforms right now that moving away from a Tier 1 player like Disney (ESPN) would be nuts.

I don't know the ultimate solution for the ACC. Agree that something probably needs to be done and the status quo is a losing strategy, but that doesn't mean tearing up a contract w/ ESPN is the move.
 
In today's money hungry college athletics landscape I cannot imagine a scenario where conference membership isn't evaluated on both ends. Big time schools will chase bigger payouts in various conferences. Existing conference members will weigh in on who can be a member of their conference. Right now we're seeing votes to ADMIT members happening, but I don't see what is preventing a conference from holding a vote on who REMAINS in the conference. Someone probably has the total revenue figures for each school in the ACC but we're obviously at the bottom in terms of alumni base. Plus we're one of 4 ACC schools in our TV market so dumping wake wouldn't cost many viewers. I don't think we can rely on other schools to bail us out on future membership votes on the basis of tradition. I just wonder how big the numbers would have to get before it really makes a difference to teams and the idea gains traction. ACC revenue is around $500m. Split 14 ways that's about $35M each (assuming ND gets a cut as well). Let's say they boot Wake and someone else and revenue drops to just under $500M split amount 12. That's still about $6M more per school. Certainly enough where an AD could say with a straight face they couldn't ignore that level of additional revenue. But nowhere close to the current revenue disparity between the Big 12 (about $350M total for members) to the SEC (closer to $650M) which is causing Texas and OU to be sleazy. I don't see a scenario where we get booted / ACC drops to 12 anytime soon but I don't think we're ever truly safe based on our size. I FEAR THE UNKNOWN
 
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Wake isn't Vandy, the lone private school in a sea of huge public schools. Wake has a lot of company as a private school in the ACC. Duke, Miami, BC, Syracuse, Pitt (sorta). Notre Dame. UVA, the way they want to think of themselves. It is good for each of them to keep the others around.
 
The one big card I think the ACC has left is if they can form a mega conference with the PAC-12 and get out of the current ESPN deal. Then they could try to work a deal with NBC to bring ND into the conference which could help preserve their rivalries with USC and Stanford. NBC, USA, and NBCSN could air three or four games a week each. Peacock could air even more.

The backup plan would be to cut a deal with CBS to replace their SEC deal but expand it to include games on the CW, one or two of their other networks, and Paramount+.

The ACC needs to do something big and do it now. Staying with ESPN as the SEC’s little brother is not going to do it.

I've seen the bi-coastal superleague theorized about by people, but honestly don't understand the practicality of that. Jesus, travel expenses would go through the roof, starting times would skewed, etc. If the point is to basically have an agreement to play a CCG but still have de facto separate leagues apart from that, then I don't see much advantage to that.

ND is going to either sink or swim. The writing is on the wall. They need to hop on board. Have seen it rumored that PSU is unhappy with the Big 10 (maybe too much competition for top pedo school) and might be amenable to an ACC invitation. That would certainly be interesting.
 
I've seen the bi-coastal superleague theorized about by people, but honestly don't understand the practicality of that. Jesus, travel expenses would go through the roof, starting times would skewed, etc. If the point is to basically have an agreement to play a CCG but still have de facto separate leagues apart from that, then I don't see much advantage to that.

ND is going to either sink or swim. The writing is on the wall. They need to hop on board. Have seen it rumored that PSU is unhappy with the Big 10 (maybe too much competition for top pedo school) and might be amenable to an ACC invitation. That would certainly be interesting.

I'd be good with WVa and Penn St. Kick ND out of everything at that point. The ACC just needs to be proactive in this next phase of expansion.
 
Thirty years ago, in 1991, (in many ways, not that long ago), the following schools were independents:

- FSU
- Penn State
- South Carolina
- L'ville
- ECU

While this is hard to believe, during that season, FSU, ND, Penn State and ECU were all ranked in the top 10 at some point. Also, there were a ton of independent programs in those days (18). Now, there are 5

In 1991, there were essentially 7 "Power Conferences" (# of teams in parens): Southwest Conference (9), Big 10 (10), Big 8 (8), Pac 10 (10), ACC (8), SEC (10) and Big East (8). Over the following 30 years, the only teams to lose their "Power Conference" status were the Southwest Conference teams that weren't invited to join other conferences when that conference disbanded (Houston, Rice and SMU). FWIW, SMU wasn't invited because the dissolution of the SWC happened at the worst possible time as SMU football was shutdown from 1986 to 1989, and the program was still in disarray when the SWC cratered. Also, Temple was booted from the Big East for essentially not funding their football program on a sufficient or even marginal level. After the SWC disappeared, the Big East football conference then dissolved with teams going to the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12.

Also, over the next decade, all of the football power independents joined conferences except for ND. Additionally, the number of FBS teams grew from 107 in 1991 to 130 today. College football stabilized for the last decade until now with Texas and OU apparently joining the SEC no later than 2025. If the Big 12 falls apart, there would be 4 BCS conferences remaining, and a super-lucrative 12 team college football playoff on the horizon.

Given the history, as WF is not going to be "expelled" from the ACC (WF is not anything like Temple football was in the 1990s), WF's vulnerability as a "power conference" school would be if the ACC similarly falls apart with schools leaving the ACC for the SEC or Big 10. With all 14 full-time ACC members granting its primary and secondary media rights to the ACC until 2036, the ACC is in an entirely different position than either Big 12 today, or the Big East or the SWC decades ago. While 15 years is a long time, as each year passes, 2036 gets closer. Also, the ACC schools that other conferences would look to poach (Clemson, UNC, UVA) have been rock solid in their support of the conference (also, the ACC has always looked after Clemson football's and UNC and Duke basketball's interests, which would not happen in the SEC or Big 10). With that said, each school will put its own interests first in the end. So as 2036 approaches the circumstances and loyalties could change.

The ACC has time. No school is going to look to leave in the next few years, but perspectives could evolve depending on what college football revenues, including playoff opportunities look like in 5 years when the 12 team tourney is in full steam. If Biff's wet dream comes true with the SEC landing 6 bids with the ACC getting one, maybe conference loyalty wanes, maybe schools won't agree to extend their grant of rights beyond 2036. The future is going to rest upon the decision-making and foresight of the new ACC commissioner, Jim Phillips, conference athletic directors and university presidents. Will be interesting to see what college football looks like over the next few decades, but it will look even more different than it did 30 years ago when Miami and Washington were co-national champions, and no SEC team finished in the top 4 in the country.
 
NIL opportunities are going to skew things in ways that are hard to predict right now. Teams that are currently so-so may become stronger and more desirable because of the NIL opportunities they create for their players. Other teams may go the other way.. It will be a few years before this is sorted out.

ACC should stay together for at least the next decade plus.

Anybody know if the triple income payment established when Maryland left also applies to the media rights?
 
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