Thirty years ago, in 1991, (in many ways, not that long ago), the following schools were independents:
- FSU
- Penn State
- South Carolina
- L'ville
- ECU
While this is hard to believe, during that season, FSU, ND, Penn State and ECU were all ranked in the top 10 at some point. Also, there were a ton of independent programs in those days (18). Now, there are 5
In 1991, there were essentially 7 "Power Conferences" (# of teams in parens): Southwest Conference (9), Big 10 (10), Big 8 (8), Pac 10 (10), ACC (8), SEC (10) and Big East (8). Over the following 30 years, the only teams to lose their "Power Conference" status were the Southwest Conference teams that weren't invited to join other conferences when that conference disbanded (Houston, Rice and SMU). FWIW, SMU wasn't invited because the dissolution of the SWC happened at the worst possible time as SMU football was shutdown from 1986 to 1989, and the program was still in disarray when the SWC cratered. Also, Temple was booted from the Big East for essentially not funding their football program on a sufficient or even marginal level. After the SWC disappeared, the Big East football conference then dissolved with teams going to the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12.
Also, over the next decade, all of the football power independents joined conferences except for ND. Additionally, the number of FBS teams grew from 107 in 1991 to 130 today. College football stabilized for the last decade until now with Texas and OU apparently joining the SEC no later than 2025. If the Big 12 falls apart, there would be 4 BCS conferences remaining, and a super-lucrative 12 team college football playoff on the horizon.
Given the history, as WF is not going to be "expelled" from the ACC (WF is not anything like Temple football was in the 1990s), WF's vulnerability as a "power conference" school would be if the ACC similarly falls apart with schools leaving the ACC for the SEC or Big 10. With all 14 full-time ACC members granting its primary and secondary media rights to the ACC until 2036, the ACC is in an entirely different position than either Big 12 today, or the Big East or the SWC decades ago. While 15 years is a long time, as each year passes, 2036 gets closer. Also, the ACC schools that other conferences would look to poach (Clemson, UNC, UVA) have been rock solid in their support of the conference (also, the ACC has always looked after Clemson football's and UNC and Duke basketball's interests, which would not happen in the SEC or Big 10). With that said, each school will put its own interests first in the end. So as 2036 approaches the circumstances and loyalties could change.
The ACC has time. No school is going to look to leave in the next few years, but perspectives could evolve depending on what college football revenues, including playoff opportunities look like in 5 years when the 12 team tourney is in full steam. If Biff's wet dream comes true with the SEC landing 6 bids with the ACC getting one, maybe conference loyalty wanes, maybe schools won't agree to extend their grant of rights beyond 2036. The future is going to rest upon the decision-making and foresight of the new ACC commissioner, Jim Phillips, conference athletic directors and university presidents. Will be interesting to see what college football looks like over the next few decades, but it will look even more different than it did 30 years ago when Miami and Washington were co-national champions, and no SEC team finished in the top 4 in the country.