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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

thatguy2016 said:
stay strong
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It doesn't matter to ME anymore. And that's why I put "conference" in quotation marks - because these won't be conferences anymore at that point. But App fans will consider it a conference and they will see themselves as at least our equal if they are grouped in any way with us . That's all I'm saying. Yuck
 
Kent said:
In every negotiation, there is the desired outcome and then the fallback.

The desired outcome is to be on par with the SEC and Big 10. That goal seems out of reach for, among other reasons, the one Pilch mentions above.

The fallback is to survive, and to avoid yearly games with Elon and Memphis. That might be the best use of the ACC's efforts. In that case, adding WV probably helps. Though if the Big 12 scoops up a few Pac 12 teams, why would WV leave? Additionally, any school who whose desired outcome is to leave the ACC isn't going to be very amenable to anything that further binds them to a surviving ACC (this is how we'll know who actually wants out).

I'm not generally an alarmist, but the medium and longterm prospects for the ACC don't look great. In that case, it's time to focus on the fallback.
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Good post.
 
Kent said:
In every negotiation, there is the desired outcome and then the fallback.

The desired outcome is to be on par with the SEC and Big 10. That goal seems out of reach for, among other reasons, the one Pilch mentions above.

The fallback is to survive, and to avoid yearly games with Elon and Memphis. That might be the best use of the ACC's efforts. In that case, adding WV probably helps. Though if the Big 12 scoops up a few Pac 12 teams, why would WV leave? Additionally, any school who whose desired outcome is to leave the ACC isn't going to be very amenable to anything that further binds them to a surviving ACC (this is how we'll know who actually wants out).

I'm not generally an alarmist, but the medium and longterm prospects for the ACC don't look great. In that case, it's time to focus on the fallback.
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Right, The ACC is no longer competing with the BIG and SEC. That ship has sailed. The goal now is to survive. The power 5 is probably going to be the Power 4 real fast.
 
Exactly. Why would WVU want to leave the Big XII, when they're in the process of righting the ship, to join a floundering ACC with an uncertain future, that doesn't really want them, potentially for less money ? Geography is the only answer, but that's not good enough.
 
Pilchard said:
The standard is not whether the football program can attract more eyeballs than Duke football. If that was the ACC would invite App State. The standard is whether by adding that school will that allow the ACC to negotiate a media rights deal that increases the payout for EVERY ACC school. Right now, the ACC media rights payout per school is about $35 million per year; its expected to grow to about $55 million over the next 6 to 8 years.

WV doesn't move the needle when negotiating media rights to to make the economics work so that the per school payout would increase, and the ACC is not adding WV to kick out Duke (or WF). They aren't that many options for the ACC to add to its membership, the ACC has vetted each one, if there was a home run school out there that the ACC could add, it would do so. WV has been begging to get in the ACC for more than 20 years, but simply stated, WV does not help in the grand scheme of things. WV might be the option if/when the ACC started losing members, but not until then if ever.
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What exactly do you think is moving this "needle"? Advertising sales and subscriptions are what make the "economics work. "Brand" don't mean a flying fuck if nobody is watching. Nobody said anything about kicking out Duke. They were just used as a comparison for the value that they add to the leagues negotiating ability in comparison to WVU. ESPN and FOX don't care how many basketball jerseys you sell at walmart. They care how many people watch your football games.
 
BiffTannen said:
Exactly. Why would WVU want to leave the Big XII, when they're in the process of righting the ship, to join a floundering ACC with an uncertain future, that doesn't really want them, potentially for less money ? Geography is the only answer, but that's not good enough.
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The ACC is the only one of the 3 that has yet to lose a member in this round. How are they floundering more than the other 2?
 
skinnydeac said:
The ACC is the only one of the 3 that has yet to lose a member in this round. How are they floundering more than the other 2?
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Yeah, WVU would jump at the opportunity to join the ACC and leave the Big 12 sinking ship. Get serious here.
 
skinnydeac said:
The ACC is the only one of the 3 that has yet to lose a member in this round. How are they floundering more than the other 2?
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They're falling financially behind with no obvious way to make more money and have assets desirable to both the ACC and B1G while the Big XII and PAC 12 are in the process of getting married ?
 
BiffTannen said:
They're falling financially behind with no obvious way to make more money and have assets desirable to both the ACC and B1G while the Big XII and PAC 12 are in the process of getting married ?
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There are articles everywhere that say this conference is making an alliance with that conference, but at the end of the day, each of the Big 12 and Pac 12 just lost 2 of their biggest bargaining chips. Their valuable assets walked out the door.
 
No pressure here but I would say staying in a Big Boy Conference is critical for survival of WF as a national top 30 (need to be top 20 IMO) university just as much as the athletics program. What differentiates WF from SMU, Furman, Emory, Richmond, Elon, Davidson, W&L, Wash U in St Louis- the ACC. Yes- having the Big 3 professional schools is #1 but this is #2.
 
JKW385 said:
No pressure here but I would say staying in a Big Boy Conference is critical for survival of WF as a national top 30 (need to be top 20 IMO) university just as much as the athletics program. What differentiates WF from SMU, Furman, Emory, Richmond, Elon, Davidson, W&L, Wash U in St Louis- the ACC. Yes- having the Big 3 professional schools is #1 but this is #2.
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Meh. Wash U and Emory are rated way higher than Wake already.

D1 sports undoubtedly factors into Wake's reputation with the general public, but people in academia know that Wake's a good school regardless, so I don't see things like our USN&WR ranking being affected very much. Some, maybe. But you're right that the average person won't know a thing about Wake if we drop down from the BCS level (or whatever the future equivalent is).
 
JKW385 said:
No pressure here but I would say staying in a Big Boy Conference is critical for survival of WF as a national top 30 (need to be top 20 IMO) university just as much as the athletics program. What differentiates WF from SMU, Furman, Emory, Richmond, Elon, Davidson, W&L, Wash U in St Louis- the ACC. Yes- having the Big 3 professional schools is #1 but this is #2.
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100%. No way I would've gone to Wake but for the Timmy D years (which occurred while I was in high school). I was a freshman RA and also once recall one of "my" guys telling me he was accepted to Princeton among other super-selective Northeast schools and chose Wake in part because of the major-conference athletics, which I don't believe is uncommon whatsoever.
 
"If ESPN can rearrange conferences via reworking the ACC TV deal in a world forever changed by USC’s move to the Big Ten, Vanderbilt might move to the ACC as another academic powerhouse with North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia. That kind of membership would mesh well with Stanford and Berkeley (Cal). The cultural and institutional fits of ACC and Pac-12 schools are far better than those between Pac-12 and Big 12 schools."

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/li...es-complete-sense-though-it-might-not-happen/

I like it
 
guitardeac said:
yea but all the App guys I know will consider that as a huge win for them. they have been saying for years Wake does not belong in a better/bigger conference than them. Major chip on their shoulders and this would be massive vindication.
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If somebody has access to Steve Wiseman's column in the Charlotte Observer that was put up in the last hour or so, according to that, we should feel honored if App would honor us with the favor of a tilt or two upon the gridiron in future years as the leaves begin to turn.
 
BiffTannen said:
Exactly. Why would WVU want to leave the Big XII, when they're in the process of righting the ship, to join a floundering ACC with an uncertain future, that doesn't really want them, potentially for less money ? Geography is the only answer, but that's not good enough.
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Big 12 isn't in a place of strength and it's been well noted that their TV deal without UT/OU that number goes down drastically, hence why they're trying to grab people from the Pac-12.

West Virginia made about 22 million in FY 21 off their media rights, and on average the Big 12 schools make about 26 million a year solely off their media rights. The schools they added last cycle aren't going to get them back even close to what they were making with UT and OU. Adding the four corners, while they have some value... the likely outcome is that they probably stay around that 26 million per year if that goes through. They'd essentially make around the same money the ACC got the first year of the ACC network.

They'd get more money in the ACC who has the GOR and the Big 12 isn't exactly a beacon of certainty, they still don't have a media deal locked in and it's not like a bunch of networks are chomping at the bit for what's left of the Big 12. VT was dogshit in 2020 and made more money media rights wise than WVU
 
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inspectah said:
"If ESPN can rearrange conferences via reworking the ACC TV deal in a world forever changed by USC’s move to the Big Ten, Vanderbilt might move to the ACC as another academic powerhouse with North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia. That kind of membership would mesh well with Stanford and Berkeley (Cal). The cultural and institutional fits of ACC and Pac-12 schools are far better than those between Pac-12 and Big 12 schools."

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/li...es-complete-sense-though-it-might-not-happen/

I like it
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I was thinking along the same lines. Don’t assume the driving entities are the SEC and the Big10. The entities behind these two fronts are ESPN and Fox respectively. ESPN controls the ACC media rights and the Big 12 is split between ESPN and Fox. That creates and interesting dynamic where ESPN may have to cannibalize it ACC property, which is currently a favorable deal for ESPN. There could be an incentive for ESPN to keep the ACC viable, so there may not be as much movement from the SEC to poach from the ACC. Then again, if Fox throws enough money via the Big10 to attract some of the ACC schools… Thinking down the road, what could ESPN do, for example, the create another valuable conference property? They will want to keep the new second tier conferences/teams interesting. There was an article a year ago hypothesizing that an expanded Ivy could be an attractive media property. Ivy League expansion would awaken sleeping media colossus. - Page 2 - ESPN Not mentioned, but the arguments apply would be to go with something like the Magnolia conference someone on these boards was pushing a decade ago.
 
KidA23 said:
100%. No way I would've gone to Wake but for the Timmy D years (which occurred while I was in high school). I was a freshman RA and also once recall one of "my" guys telling me he was accepted to Princeton among other super-selective Northeast schools and chose Wake in part because of the major-conference athletics, which I don't believe is uncommon whatsoever.
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Wake currently offers the best of both worlds for many - offering elite academics and elite athletics within a smaller, community driven campus environment. While that is certainly threatened by the conference changes, the good news is that our current leaders (Wente, Currie, BoT, major donors, etc) get that and believe it is worth preserving. I think we should have confidence that we can make moves ... we are smaller, but more nimble -- not tied to the red tape of state houses and budgets.
 
inspectah said:
"If ESPN can rearrange conferences via reworking the ACC TV deal in a world forever changed by USC’s move to the Big Ten, Vanderbilt might move to the ACC as another academic powerhouse with North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia. That kind of membership would mesh well with Stanford and Berkeley (Cal). The cultural and institutional fits of ACC and Pac-12 schools are far better than those between Pac-12 and Big 12 schools."

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/li...es-complete-sense-though-it-might-not-happen/

Once again we get the LOWF treatment
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