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SayHeyDeac's Thread For Serious Political Discourse Only--Trolls Need Not Apply

birdman said:
So far, I'd say Cruz. It kind of depends on the outcome of the election though. Assuming reason prevails and Trump loses, Cruz effectively distanced himself from the Trump Train, but in the end he gets to claim that he is a team player and endorsed the guy. I think Cruz emerges from all of this as the leader of the religious right. Pence is, I guess, in second place in this race to nowhere. With the VP nod he'll get a lot more name recognition 4 years from now, but tying himself so closely to Trump can't be a good move in the long term. Who is Kasich again?
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Pretty much agree. Bless me birdie for shooting bluejays with my BB gun as a child even though my dad raised parakettes and canaries as a hobby. Being non crazy, a bird genius, and understanding quantitative models goes a long way...

Pence knew he was DOA in Indiana and eagerly jumped aboard the Trump train. Christie is simarly dead in politics, but sent Mr Ivanka's dad to the big house. Not Trump U, but the pesky Bridgegate trial would have been a pesky distraction. Losing as VP is better than losing as Gov, but his time has passed.

Kasich is done if Trump wins. Already lost twice and too old to run in 2024. 2020 is iffy...

Cruz is a weasel and he's done if he loses in 2018 (primary or general election). His social positions are dead, but he won't have Trump stench if he's still viable in 2020.
 
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RE: Cruz - the country is moving more to the middle. His brand of conservatism will be archaic by the time he has any chance to run again. Unless he changes his personality, he won't have a whole lot more friends in 4-8 years either. The only thing I can see for him 2020 is to set him up as a sacrificial lamb to lose and not bruise any new face.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Pretty much agree. Bless me birdie for shooting bluejays with my BB gun as a child even though my dad raised parakettes and canaries as a hobby. Being non crazy, a bird genius, and understanding quantitative models goes a long way...

Pence knew he was DOA in Indiana and eagerly jumped aboard the Trump train. Christie is simarly dead in politics, but sent Mr Ivanka's dad to the big house. Not Trump U, but the pesky Bridgegate trial would have been a pesky distraction. Losing as VP is better than losing as Gov, but his time has passed.

Kasich is done if Trump wins. Already lost twice and too old to run in 2024. 2020 is iffy...

Cruz is a weasel and he's done if he loses in 2018 (primary or general election). His social positions are dead, but he won't have Trump stench if he's still viable in 2020.
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Haha, I never thought all my training in modeling migratory bird populations would be so valued on a Wake Forest politics board.

Also, sucks for those Blue Jays, but if it makes you feel better, it's doubtful that you had a population level effect.
 
RJKarl said:
RE: Cruz - the country is moving more to the middle. His brand of conservatism will be archaic by the time he has any chance to run again. Unless he changes his personality, he won't have a whole lot more friends in 4-8 years either. The only thing I can see for him 2020 is to set him up as a sacrificial lamb to lose and not bruise any new face.
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You are correct about his like ability, I'd forgotten about that. I think you're incorrect about his brand of conservatism being archaic by 2020. His bible inspired insanity is alive and well and not going anywhere in places like Alabama, Mississippi, etc. He may not win elections but his people are all over the place down here, and he has a high potential to be the voice of that crowd.
 
Plouffe weighs in again. Gamed out various Trump end game scenarios. Thinks Trump can win IA & OH, but expects HRC to win those two plus FL, PA, NC, VA, CO, NV, and NH. Would put her floor @ 322 and her ceiling @ 346. Said Obama was trailing by larger margins than HRC in FL at this point both times.
 
birdman said:
You are correct about his like ability, I'd forgotten about that. I think you're incorrect about his brand of conservatism being archaic by 2020. His bible inspired insanity is alive and well and not going anywhere in places like Alabama, Mississippi, etc. He may not win elections but his people are all over the place down here, and he has a high potential to be the voice of that crowd.
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He can't win in 2020 with his current stances on religion, gays or immigration. The combination of the aging of millennials, expansion or non-whites and women make his platform out of date today and will be worse in 2020.

Watch Texas. In 2018, I would not be surprised if one of the Castro brothers becomes governor. As this shows, Hispanics could outnumber whites in TX in 2020 ( http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/lo...number-whites-in-Texas-by-the-end-6375597.php ).
 
RJKarl said:
He can't win in 2020 with his current stances on religion, gays or immigration. The combination of the aging of millennials, expansion or non-whites and women make his platform out of date today and will be worse in 2020.

Watch Texas. In 2018, I would not be surprised if one of the Castro brothers becomes governor. As this shows, Hispanics could outnumber whites in TX in 2020 ( http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/lo...number-whites-in-Texas-by-the-end-6375597.php ).
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He won't win elections, but he might win primaries. Cruz sees him self as the rightful and righteous leader of the religious conservatives. That group is his only political constituency and his only future. He played this election right to be the leader of that group, so he is the winner amongst Himself, Pence and Kasich. None of those three have any future nationally outside of the tea party/religious conservatives. That's why I called it a race to nowhere.
 
You know the road to nowhere exists. It's on I-15 between LA and Vegas. It's the Zzyzx Exit.
 
Trump donors kicked in $16M today. Still well short of the needed $140M for a promised ad campaign. Trump's going to have to kick in big time to make it happen.
 
WFFaithful said:
He just bragged at the debate about not needing advertisements.
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Advertising doesn't make much sense for Trump at this point. He's done if he loses any of FL, PA, OH, or NC. Pretty low probability he sweeps all four or gets swept, but doesn't matter if he loses even one of them. They need to pour all their remaining resources into GOTV in those four states, not into advertising.

Trump had minimal problems trashing all of his primary opponents except for Kasich, Carson, Christie, and Carly in person, but couldn't hammer Nieto or Hillary in person. Was definitely rude to Hillary, but still didn't totally trash her. Really trashes people on Twitter or in interviews, but hesitates on some folks in person. May use advertising to go after Bubba or Hillary on a personal level.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Who made the best decision for their own political future: Pence, Kasich, or Cruz?
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Great question. Given all the weight that former VP candidates get, I'd have to say Pence. He'll have time to wash the Trump stink off him and he certainly can rally the base with his ultra-conservative policies. Kasich's window was this year - I don't think he runs again in 2020. Cruz is simply poison. He may have gained some credibility by dissing Trump at the convention, but he blew it by endorsing him.
 
birdman said:
Also, sucks for those Blue Jays, but if it makes you feel better, it's doubtful that you had a population level effect.
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Thanks for the reassurance. Like Hopkins, but Toronto is one of only two MLB teams (Rays are the other) I've never seen play. Asking for a friend, but what are ballpark population level effects for a potential Charlie Manson of jays and hummingbirds? Thanks.
 
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