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SayHeyDeac's Thread For Serious Political Discourse Only--Trolls Need Not Apply

CantStandYa said:
I've been surprised the Clinton campaign hasn't leveraged Kaine as much to go after religious voters who are horrified at Trump's behavior. The so-called "Bush Democrats".
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I'm not sure religious voters have a problem with Trump.
 
Pence was a compromise panic pick. Campaign was terrified there would be a Cruz-lead social conservative challenge at the convention so they settled on Pence to calm them down. IN was never in doubt, but he's become a golly gee professional apologist for Trump. Christie would have been an aggressive attack dog, but they dodged a bullet on Bridgegate. Newt was a non-starter: another OWG with two ex wives.

Machado helps HRC with swing state college educated suburbanites and the Latino vote in FL, CO, and NV. Still need help with millenial turnout and Pence's earlier nutty idea to move funding from "pro-AIDS groups" (?!?) to gay conversion therapy won't play well with young voters.
 
Newsweek cover story tomorrow is about Trump's company secretly doing business in Castro-led Cuba despite the embargo. This could impact Florida.
 
Nah. They'll spin it that Obama and Hillary are doing business with the Castros by normalizing relations with Cuba.
 
Rachel Maddow just reported that Newsweek is publishing a story tomorrow that Trump and his company did business in Cuba. This could be huge.
 
RJKarl said:
Rachel Maddow just reported that Newsweek is publishing a story tomorrow that Trump and his company did business in Cuba. This could be huge.
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Nah. They'll spin it that Obama and Hillary are doing business with the Castros by normalizing relations with Cuba.
 
Newsweek cover story tomorrow is about Trump's company secretly doing business in Castro-led Cuba despite the embargo. This could impact Florida
 
Word on the street is that Newsweek is putting out a story about how Trump was doing business in Cuba in direct conflict with the imposed embargo. Could be big. thought you make like to know.
 
Trump possibly violated the Cuba embargo by doing business with the Castro government. Newsweek is teasing the story. It'll be out tomorrow.
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Anyone heard something about a Newsweek story tomorrow?
 
538's simulation output has the EC vote count probability distributions tightening a little bit today. The distributions are starting to look less uniform and a little more "normally" shaped (normal as in a normal or Gaussian distribution). They will never have a real smooth bell curve appearance because of the nature of the winner take all state by state outcomes, i.e., we'd expect it to have peaks disrupting the smoothness of the curve because the smallest increment of EC votes is 3 units, and several states (PA, FL, OH) give you batches of 20 or so. The Clinton EC vote count peaks at 348 or 355 reflect her winning one or more of those big swing states.
 
birdman said:
538's simulation output has the EC vote count probability distributions tightening a little bit today. The distributions are starting to look less uniform and a little more "normally" shaped (normal as in a normal or Gaussian distribution). They will never have a real smooth bell curve appearance because of the nature of the winner take all state by state outcomes, i.e., we'd expect it to have peaks disrupting the smoothness of the curve because the smallest increment of EC votes is 3 units, and several states (PA, FL, OH) give you batches of 20 or so. The Clinton EC vote count peaks at 348 or 355 reflect her winning one or more of those big swing states.
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The Princeton model is tighter and its highest peak is around 320. Silver's model has always had at least one of its top three peaks between 340 and 360, even when her swing state and national poll numbers were falling. Both models currently predict a close EV (between 290 and 310), but 340 to 360 is hardky impossible.

Plouffe's working for Uber now, but he's still privy to HRC's internal polling. Acknowledges they still need to turnout millenials, skim enough Johnson voters to cap Johnson/Stein combined @ 8%, and have issues in IA & OH. Despite all that, still believes it will end up a 4-6 point race with Hillary sweeping PA, VA, NH, CO, NV, FL, NC, OH, and IA. IA, OH, and NC seem overly ambitious to me, but Hillary's in IA today for an early voting event. Plouffe did say Obama's internal polling on NV was low on both turnout and results both times.

Haven't heard anyone from the Clinton campaign say it publicly, but they have to be pleasantly surprised by the White educated support nationally and especially in swing states and are quietly capitalizing on that. Certainly aren't going to concede Blacks and Latinos, but they have enough data and are nimble enough to adjust on the fly.

Conway's a good pollster, but she willingly went to work for a deeply flawed asshole who refuses to take advice and execute reasonable electoral strategies. KAC definitely knows the Trump base alone isn't deep enough to win in swing states, so they have to add signifcant amounts of suburbanites and skim urban Blacks and Latinos. No way KAC advised Trump to trash Nieto and the Black Pastor after highly stage managed photo ops. Same with taking the bait on Cuban and inviting Gennifer Flowers or trashing Machado after a night's sleep. KAC's not a campaign manager, but a spokesperson who has no control over Trump. Doesn't matter if Trump refuses to listen, doesn't understand the strategy, or refuses to prepare, it all ends up in a clusterfuck.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
The Princeton model is tighter and its highest peak is around 320. Silver's model has always had at least one of its top three peaks between 340 and 360, even when her swing state and national poll numbers were falling. Both models currently predict a close EV (between 290 and 310), but 340 to 360 is hardky impossible.

Plouffe's working for Uber now, but he's still privy to HRC's internal polling. Acknowledges they still need to turnout millenials, skim enough Johnson voters to cap Johnson/Stein combined @ 8%, and have issues in IA & OH. Despite all that, still believes it will end up a 4-6 point race with Hillary sweeping PA, VA, NH, CO, NV, FL, NC, OH, and IA. IA, OH, and NC seem overly ambitious to me, but Hillary's in IA today for an early voting event. Plouffe did say Obama's internal polling on NV was low on both turnout and results both times.

Haven't heard anyone from the Clinton campaign say it publicly, but they have to be pleasantly surprised by the White educated support nationally and especially in swing states and are quietly capitalizing on that. Certainly aren't going to concede Blacks and Latinos, but they have enough data and are nimble enough to adjust on the fly.

Conway's a good pollster, but she willingly went to work for a deeply flawed asshole who refuses to take advice and execute reasonable electoral strategies. KAC definitely knows the Trump base alone isn't deep enough to win in swing states, so they have to add signifcant amounts of suburbanites and skim urban Blacks and Latinos. No way KAC advised Trump to trash Nieto and the Black Pastor after highly stage managed photo ops. Same with taking the bait on Cuban and inviting Gennifer Flowers or trashing Machado after a night's sleep. KAC's not a campaign manager, but a spokesperson who has no control over Trump. Doesn't matter if Trump refuses to listen, doesn't understand the strategy, or refuses to prepare, it all ends up in a clusterfuck.
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I worry about Plouffe's confidence here. I hope they are not getting cocky; Just get CO, NH, PA and VA, the rest are icing.
 
I think they have those as well as FL. As rube says IA, OH, & NC seem like a reach. Trump sentiment is strong down here in the south and I can't see their being enough liberals, minorities, and college educated whites to turn that tide.
 
He has access information that we don't.

I also think the Ms. Universe nonsense will reverberate. Here are a couple of article/polls:

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/poli...ink-Less-Trump-Better-Clinton--395179321.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/us/politics/women-voters-reaction.html?_r=0

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...women-think-less-trump-better-clinton-n656321

If this had happened six weeks ago, the impact could have dissipated. This closes the circle. He called Rosie a pig and Alicia Machado "Ms. Piggy".

Trump's business in Cuba could also hurt him in FL. He has very little margin of error there.

RE: NV, if the unions get people out to vote, it would outperform projections.

I'd like to see how these polls are done - landline vs. cell vs. combo.
 
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