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Tunnels Pulse Check: Who Wins?

Who Wins?

  • Total voters
    58
CantStandYa

CantStandYa

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On the eve of the first debate, and with the recent tightening of the race, who ultimately wins?

Mind you, this is not who you're voting for, but who you actually think will win.
 
It makes no sense, but it seems to me that Hillary might actually lose this thing. Still don't know how that would occur due to demographics and the reality of Trump's ineptitude to do the job, but right now that is the momentum. This election is difficult to project anything past 24 hours though because you simply don't know what is going to come out of Trump's mouth, and you don't know what calamity (physical or scandal) is going to befall Hillary.
 
Typical conservative response:

"I know math and science don't back my opinion up (and I don't trust math and science anyway), but here's what I think. Okay back to work, those radishes aren't going to pick themselves!" *shrug*
 
The lead that Clinton had before was the ridiculous and unprecedented. That was more of a headline than the race tightening to a more normal contest.

Even if Trump wins FL, he would still need to flip PA and VA, which isn't going to happen.
 
Even with the Republican governor getting clobbered:
 
Wrangor said:
It makes no sense, but it seems to me that Hillary might actually lose this thing. Still don't know how that would occur due to demographics and the reality of Trump's ineptitude to do the job, but right now that is the momentum. This election is difficult to project anything past 24 hours though because you simply don't know what is going to come out of Trump's mouth, and you don't know what calamity (physical or scandal) is going to befall Hillary.
Click to expand...

It seems like the most likely circumstances that would lead to a Trump win would involve a sizable chunk of the Obama coalition simply abstaining from voting.

The other likelihood that leads to a Trump victory is a repeat of 2000 Florida: Clinton wins the popular vote by running up her totals in NY, CA, VA, NJ, etc, but the EC is close enough that a disputed single state (likely OH, PA, or FL again) would be the difference. The lower courts rule in favor of Trump, the USSC is unable to render a decision because there are an even number of justices, and the lower court decision stands. Result: President Trump. Turns out the GOP was playing the long-game in blocking Garland.
 
Looking at the EC map again - it's also possible, though not probable, that we get an EC tie, which throws the election to the House.

Trump swing states: NV, AZ, IA, OH, NC, GA, FL, NH
Clinton swing states: PA, MI, WI, VA, CO

Boom. Tie. Makes those special districts in NE and ME pretty damn important.
 
It's amazing that AZ or GA would be considered swing states.
 
I can make up a magical scenario that ignores math and history too, but what is the point?

PA has voted democratic in the last SIX (6) presidential elections. Why would they flip now, for the worst GOP candidate in a century? The polling suggests it's not close in PA, history says it's not going to be close in PA, but keep playing make believe with your imaginary friends.

Trump would have to be 1984 Reagan to pull off a multiple blue state flip the likes of which he needs to win. And, he's uhh..not.
 
If the morons running Hillary's campaign can't win FL, they should never get a job with another campaign. Hell, they probably couldn't sell ice in the desert if they can win FL.
 
CantStandYa said:
Looking at the EC map again - it's also possible, though not probable, that we get an EC tie, which throws the election to the House.

Trump swing states: NV, AZ, IA, OH, NC, GA, FL, NH
Clinton swing states: PA, MI, WI, VA, CO

Boom. Tie. Makes those special districts in NE and ME pretty damn important.
Click to expand...

Can see Trump winning GA, AZ, IA, NC, and OH, but gets tougher after that. Done without both FL and PA. Trump led the GOP primaries after August and he hasn't had a concensus lead on HRC yet. Do think if he ever does get a lead, he won't relinquish it, but also conceivable he never leads.

Lots riding on the first debate, GOTV, and early voting. Trump should shut debates down if he does well on Monday. Still doesn't have a turnout machine and there's no path without all of FL, PA, OH, and NC. Hillary has multiple paths and flexibility (data, resources, and $s). Sincerely hope the outcome either way is conclusive (at least a couple of points in 4 or 5 states). A contested outcome would be a nightmare.
 
CantStandYa said:
Looking at the EC map again - it's also possible, though not probable, that we get an EC tie, which throws the election to the House.

Trump swing states: NV, AZ, IA, OH, NC, GA, FL, NH
Clinton swing states: PA, MI, WI, VA, CO

Boom. Tie. Makes those special districts in NE and ME pretty damn important.
Click to expand...

This is why Gary Johnson needs to win one state.

Eta: I'm actually questioning this now. Any constitution students want to weigh in? I see a lot of different interpretations of the 12th amendment.

How I read the actual text, the house could choose whoever the hell they want... where does the 'top 3 in electoral votes' factor in?
 
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TheTwinAndreBen said:
I can make up a magical scenario that ignores math and history too, but what is the point?

PA has voted democratic in the last SIX (6) presidential elections. Why would they flip now, for the worst GOP candidate in a century? The polling suggests it's not close in PA, history says it's not going to be close in PA, but keep playing make believe with your imaginary friends.

Trump would have to be 1984 Reagan to pull off a multiple blue state flip the likes of which he needs to win. And, he's uhh..not.
Click to expand...

Settle down. I'm the last person who wants the scenario I described to happen. It's called wild speculation for a reason.
 
Knight said:
Hillary will win.

I will vote for Trump.

Allegations will surface that Hillary's camp rigged the election. They will deny it. Shortly after that doesn't matter, evidence will be uncovered that proves the election was rigged.

If you don't think that's how it's going down, then you haven't been watching the last year.
Click to expand...

This makes a lot of sense, guys. Prescient.
 
Knight said:
Hillary will win.

I will vote for Trump.

Allegations will surface that Hillary's camp rigged the election. They will deny it. Shortly after that doesn't matter, evidence will be uncovered that proves the election was rigged.

If you don't think that's how it's going down, then you haven't been watching the last year.
Click to expand...

Does anyone get their mouth shit in?
 
TheTwinAndreBen said:
Typical conservative response:

"I know math and science don't back my opinion up (and I don't trust math and science anyway), but here's what I think. Okay back to work, those radishes aren't going to pick themselves!" *shrug*
Click to expand...

I prefer Hillary to Trump. Math and Science have been trending one direction for about 2-3 weeks now. I don't think the debates will be kind to Hillary. I think there is considerable more juice out there to tank her numbers. I think it is a coin toss at this point and am worried that Trump is taking the momentum. If the OP wanted a link to the polls he could have just looked that up. He asked for personal opinions not a quotation of the polling numbers.
 
I predict the first debate will be seen as Hilary struggling, but with her soundly "winning" numbers 2 and 3.
 
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