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Who Will Win the Senate ?

Who will win the US Senate and by how much ?

  • Total voters
    38
Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen

Franchise Quarterback on a Rookie Contract
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So much at stake in the Senate doing Senate things like judges and laws. But WHO WINS ON TUESDAY ?
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-a-toss-up-a-race-by-race-look/

The fight for control of the United States Senate is really close. It’s basically a coin-flip. Democrats have a 53 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, or a 52 percent chance according to our polls-only forecast. There is about a 16 percent chance, in fact, that we’ll end up with a 50-50 Senate and the presidential race will decide control. (The vice-president breaks ties in the Senate.)

There are structural factors working in both parties’ favor. Republicans hold 24 of the 34 seats that are up for reelection in 2016. Democrats, therefore, have more opportunities to pick up seats than Republicans. The political geography also favors Democrats. Of the 10 seats Democrats are defending, none are in states that were won by either John McCain or Mitt Romney in 2008 or 2012. Republicans, by contrast, are defending a lot of turf that’s either blue or purple. That’s because the last time these seats were up for reelection was in 2010,1 a GOP-wave year when Republicans won a lot of seats in Democratic-leaning territory. In total, nine of the GOP-held seats up for grabs on Tuesday are in states that President Obama won in either 2008 or 2012.
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Saw that one person predicted that the Democrats would gain 6 seats. Not surprised that when I checked, it was the same person who said that Hillary would win the popular vote by 20%.
 
Before Comey and the FBI shewed the election that's what it looked like. A bunch of heads need to roll at the FBI. They aren't supposed to be the police force of a banana republic. They aren't supposed to be leaking lies to the press.
 
It's hard to say except momentum that the Comey letter had any real effect. Hillary's polls were inflated before it, were too low after it and have rebounded to about what she should and has always been, 4-5pt lead. Probably shouldn't of done it but like people were saying, most likely was already baked into the real numbers.
 
It looks like it had much more impact in the Senate races. Before he did it and then the BS lies to Brett Baier, the Senate 70+% on 538. It's now under 50%.
 
I picked 51-49 Dems, but read a bit more over the past hour. Think 50-50 may be how it breaks down.
 
Really need a Hassan win. Bayh really screwed this up. He should have been a lock.
 
RJKarl said:
Before Comey and the FBI shewed the election that's what it looked like. A bunch of heads need to roll at the FBI. They aren't supposed to be the police force of a banana republic. They aren't supposed to be leaking lies to the press.
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As usual, you're full of shit. The Democrats were never going to end up with 52 seats.
 
As much as bkf hates on current Wake Forest and its students, he would not do well in a logic or rhetoric class. He almost exclusively makes unfalsifiable claims.
 
TownieDeac said:
As much as bkf hates on current Wake Forest and its students, he would not do well in a logic or rhetoric class. He almost exclusively makes unfalsifiable claims.
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So avoid logic and rhetoric classes. Look how far it's taken Trump.
 
bobknightfan said:
As usual, you're full of shit. The Democrats were never going to end up with 52 seats.
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As of late September, Bayh was in the lead as was Hassan. Add them to the locks in WI, IL and McGinty's lead as was NV leading. That's +5. MO and NC had Dems with 1-2 point leads.

What is usual, is that you are totally incapable of having a civil discussion. You simply can't disagree with someone without losing your mind. It's really sad.
 
Jamison2Carter said:
Why exactly was he a "lock"? He has name recognition and had money to run, but Indiana is conservative.
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He had never lost an election. Most of his elections weren't even close. The guy who is in there isn't that well known. Bayh is very conservative for a Dem. It shouldn't have been close. He got very lazy.
 
RJKarl said:
He had never lost an election. Most of his elections weren't even close. The guy who is in there isn't that well known. Bayh is very conservative for a Dem. It shouldn't have been close. He got very lazy.
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Less laziness than it was what he has been doing the last 6 years and where he has been doing it. That's really put him on the defensive and eaten into the lead he had in the polls. He's still close, though.

Reason I said 51 is Duckworth is a lock, and I think Cortez-Mesto, McGinty and Feingold are more likely than not. That adds up to 49. Then you have 4 toss-ups in NH, NC, IN and MO. I figured those split 2-2, with Bayh probably being the least likely winner in that group.
 
cville deac said:
Less laziness than it was what he has been doing the last 6 years and where he has been doing it. That's really put him on the defensive and eaten into the lead he had in the polls. He's still close, though.

Reason I said 51 is Duckworth is a lock, and I think Cortez-Mesto, McGinty and Feingold are more likely than not. That adds up to 49. Then you have 4 toss-ups in NH, NC, IN and MO. I figured those split 2-2, with Bayh probably being the least likely winner in that group.
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We need Bernie and Warren to be knocking on doors in NH to get Hassan over the top.
 
The worst burn of all.

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