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Official MLB SPRING TRAINING THREAD (Cobb signs with O's)

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Cobb to the Os on a four year deal. They loved that he pitched with success in the AL East. Present value of deal is $47MM. Not bad. Will start the season in the minors to get stretched out. Os now have some pitching depth to make a run in 2018.

Kind of hard to believe baseball is so close when there is 8 inches of snow on the ground.
 
If you're Lance Lynn, you have to be pissed that Cobb got that deal, no?
 
The Yankees are going to bat Judge first and Stanton second thinking more plate appearances will equal more runs. This doesn't make real sense. According to this, http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/02/average-mlb-plate-appearances-by.html , it's only 19 more PA for batting 1st vs. 2nd.

Even if a different leadoff hitter only gets on base 33% of the time and you adjust that number versus the same OBP of the 9th hitter, the person was leading off would have about 70 more runners on base in front of him than if he batted first.

For a run producer, this means a lot more runs. Additionally, if starting pitchers were as effective or more effective out of a stretch versus a windup, they would pitch out of a stretch 100% of the time. Batting second, he would see many more pitches from the less effective stretch than batting first.
 
The Yankees are going to bat Judge first and Stanton second thinking more plate appearances will equal more runs. This doesn't make real sense. According to this, http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/02/average-mlb-plate-appearances-by.html , it's only 19 more PA for batting 1st vs. 2nd.

Even if a different leadoff hitter only gets on base 33% of the time and you adjust that number versus the same OBP of the 9th hitter, the person was leading off would have about 70 more runners on base in front of him than if he batted first.

For a run producer, this means a lot more runs. Additionally, if starting pitchers were as effective or more effective out of a stretch versus a windup, they would pitch out of a stretch 100% of the time. Batting second, he would see many more pitches from the less effective stretch than batting first.

From “The Book” by Tom Tango:
Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.
 
Batting a 45+ HR hitter first is a waste.

That is why the player battimg in the fourth spot in the batting order is known as the cleanup hitter. He is usually the best power hitter in the lineup.
 
It really hurt the Rockies and the Astros last year to have their leadoff hitter lead the team in HRs.
 
That is why the player battimg in the fourth spot in the batting order is known as the cleanup hitter. He is usually the best power hitter in the lineup.

That's not what the Yankees are doing.
 
It really hurt the Rockies and the Astros last year to have their leadoff hitter lead the team in HRs.

There's a huge difference between a guy hitting 30 HRs and 52 HRs. I realize stat geeks hate RBI, but there's also a difference between knocking in 79 and 112,

Having far fewer opportunities to drive in runs does hurt teams.
 
What's funny about that? You win by scoring the most runs. You score by having the most opportunities for the best players to create them.
 
What's funny about that? You win by scoring the most runs. You score by having the most opportunities for the best players to create them.

You clearly missed the point, cause this response is hilarious.
 
There's a huge difference between a guy hitting 30 HRs and 52 HRs. I realize stat geeks hate RBI, but there's also a difference between knocking in 79 and 112,

Having far fewer opportunities to drive in runs does hurt teams.

Per Tom Tango's research, a HR, depending on batting order, is worth in runs:

1st - 1.421
2nd - 1.450
3rd - 1.453
4th - 1.472
5th - 1.438

So at the most extreme, between 1st and 4th, and if we are talking about the difference between 52 HRs vs. 30 HRs, it is a difference in 1.122 runs over a season. "Huge difference" indeed.
 
It's not just HRs. As I stated earlier it's total runs.

Also, a leadoff hitter ahead of two 50+ HR hitters will get better pitches to hit. My bad, there's no such thing as being protected in a line-up.
 
I don’t even really care to argue the point further. Your arguments always devolve into ad hominem attacks on stat geeks, appeal to authority fallacies for your own position, and goal post moving.

Whatever run value you think the Yankees lose by moving Judge up, it is offset by more PAs, and a higher OBP at the leadoff spot.
 
If you assume another leadoff hit will have an OBP of only .333, they are letting their leadoff hitter miss the possibility of driving in 54 runs that he won't get a chance to do. Judge will still bat so those behind him will still have him on base all those times. I showed the average difference in PAs for #1 vs. #2 is 19 per season. Which means he and those immediately behind him will lose at 35 opportunities.

Please explain how that it disputable.

An honest question here, do you really think starting pitchers are as effective out of a stretch as they are from a windup?

Another honest question, do you really think that hitters don't get better pitches to hit with a man on base versus leading off an inning with no one on?
 
I honestly can’t make sense of your math. Can you please rephrase and make a hypothetical scenario A and hypothetical scenario B with a more clear distinction?

It’s less important what I think than what i can quantify. If I can’t quantify it, why should it impact my decision making? The stats do suggest that pitchers pitch slightly worse from the stretch, but there are many variables that impact it.

With your last question, i don’t know.
 
Assuming for both 9th hitter (it's in the AL) is decent hitter

A- Leading off - 150+ PA with ZERO people on base and hundreds of PAs following the weakest hitter hundreds of times

B- Batting second -starting 50+ games with a runner on base- all PAs happen following two good hitters versus one.

Here's an interesting but small sample:

https://www.ocregister.com/2010/04/27/team-that-scores-first-usually-wins/

"So I looked at all the games of the past week (96) to see what the average win expectancy was at the moment of the first run scoring.

Here are the totals:

In the 96 games, the team that scored first had an average win expectancy of 65.6 percent. Not quite what the nameless announcer claimed, but still a pretty good edge."

And another:

"These are ranges because the results differ slightly depending on the sample used. As always I stress that these may not be perfectly accurate because they are based on stats from only the 2006 season and the sample size is only a few hundred games. But we'll assume they are pretty close.



So overall, baseball is not a "game of coming back." Comeback wins only happen about 30% of the time. The team that scores the first run of the game ends up winning the game close to 70% - actually 68.9% - of the time. This is a common cliché that actually is often true. The team that scores first is most likely to win."

Some more:

"These stats hold up over a great period of time. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the team that scored first in 2009 won 66.4 percent of the games played. Since 2000, it falls into a 64-67 percent win ratio."

Getting runners on in front of your best hitters is more likely to create runs than wasting at least 50 1st inning PAs.
 
RJ, if scoring first will lead to a victory 67% of the time, why not lead off with players that can score with one swing of the bat?
 
Some interesting extensions this spring. Obviously, Altuve gets the mega deal for being elite but DeJong, Suarez, and now Kingery provide new watermarks. My Braves would be smart to ink Albies to the DeJong deal before he puts up a 4+ WAR season. DeJong and the Reds intent to play Senzel at 2B/SS show that teams are valuing infield defense less due to shifts, strikeouts, and players hitting the ball in the air more.
 
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