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Trump will be removed before he can finish his term

Conservatives may try to get Trump out of office in order to get Pence before the shit hits the fan.

http://www.honestgraft.com/2017/05/trump-will-go-when-conservative-media.html#pq=b6JmB2

"What would it take for Republican support for Trump in Congress to crumble as Nixon's did in August 1974, forcing his premature departure from office? Republican politicians would not turn against Trump en masse without the support of a significant share of Republican voters, and Republican voters would only do so if persuaded by key members of the conservative media. This is not a wholly unthinkable scenario; conservative media figures have ultimately soured on every major national Republican politician in the post-Reagan era, and their enthusiasm for Trump will at least diminish substantially over his tenure in office if the mistakes and failures continue to pile up. But it's hard to imagine influential conservatives abandoning Trump for Pence unless the Republican legislative agenda runs completely aground and Trump proves fatal to the Republican Party's electoral standing in 2018. Even then, Republicans may well still resist actually joining together with Democratic opponents to support Trump's impeachment or removal from office."
 
to me it's simple. in politics u must have allies if ur gonna last and retain the real power. this rule of thumb holds pretty well across time and place. if trump's only allies are rust belt average joes with no political connections or clout, i do not think that'll be enough to sustain him. also, this is a marathon not a 100 meter dash, so i mean there is plenty of time for trump to accumulate enemies and pile up failures.

i could most defs be wrong. the conservative approval ratings posted a bit ago are troubling.
 
Remember when the white house used to wait until Friday to tell people the really shitty news, so that they'd hopefully forget it all by Monday? Now it's just every...single...day.
 
Barring a smoking gun finding from Mueller or Flynn turning on Trump (both of which still seem unlikely, but there is another surprise everyday), Trump will not get impeached before the 2018 mid-terms. Between 2018 and 2020, Trump will keep the Presidency unless the Republican lose big in 2018.

Given the way the congressional districts are drawn and the number of Dems up for reelection in the Senate, it remains unlikely that the Dems can gain control of either the House and Senate in 2018 (I know some pundits predict otherwise, but the deck is stacked against the Democrats because of gerrymandering). As a result, Trump will serve out his 4 year term. Will be curious to see how the 2020 run for President develops on the Republican side if Trump survives, but his Presidency continues to wobble from one catastrophe to another.
 
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Barring a smoking gun finding from Mueller or Flynn turning on Trump (both of which still seem unlikely, but there is another surprise everyday), Trump will not get impeached before the 2018 mid-terms. Between 2018 and 2020, Trump will keep the Presidency unless the Republican lose big in 2018.

Given the way the congressional districts are drawn and the number of Dems up for reelection in the Senate, it remains unlikely that the Dems can gain control of either the House and Senate in 2018 (I know some pundits predict otherwise, but the deck is stacked against the Democrats because of gerrymandering). As a result, Trump will serve out his 4 year term. Will be curious to see how the 2020 run for President develops on the Republican side if Trump survives, but his Presidency continues to wobble from one catastrophe to another.

Dems don't want him impeached, at least not right away. If either Jeb! or Kasich were the veep, we might feel differently. But Pence is basically Ted Cruz with a smile and would be more competent than Trump at getting his agenda through a Pub congress. As long as Trump doesn't start a nuclear war, Dems would rather he stay where he is and use him as a rallying cry for the midterms and 2020.

As for congress, I think taking the senate is well nigh impossible. Netting a gain of 3 seats ain't happening when only 1 seat is unsafe - NV. I agree taking the house isn't likely, but if Trump is way unpopular and the economy heads south, it could happen.
 
Dems don't want him impeached, at least not right away. If either Jeb! or Kasich were the veep, we might feel differently. But Pence is basically Ted Cruz with a smile and would be more competent than Trump at getting his agenda through a Pub congress. As long as Trump doesn't start a nuclear war, Dems would rather he stay where he is and use him as a rallying cry for the midterms and 2020.

As for congress, I think taking the senate is well nigh impossible. Netting a gain of 3 seats ain't happening when only 1 seat is unsafe - NV. I agree taking the house isn't likely, but if Trump is way unpopular and the economy heads south, it could happen.

are you fucking serious? no Dem wants Trump in office right now.
 
Dems don't want him impeached, at least not right away. If either Jeb! or Kasich were the veep, we might feel differently. But Pence is basically Ted Cruz with a smile and would be more competent than Trump at getting his agenda through a Pub congress. As long as Trump doesn't start a nuclear war, Dems would rather he stay where he is and use him as a rallying cry for the midterms and 2020.

As for congress, I think taking the senate is well nigh impossible. Netting a gain of 3 seats ain't happening when only 1 seat is unsafe - NV. I agree taking the house isn't likely, but if Trump is way unpopular and the economy heads south, it could happen.

Can't Dems just win because we have a good candidate with good ideas instead of hoping the Republicans implode? That strategy didn't work last time, and I'm not confident it will work in 2018 or 2020.
 
why would we want a destructive doofus in the WH longer than he has to be for a future election that can be bungled again?
 
are you fucking serious? no Dem wants Trump in office right now.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/20141/the-trump-pence-impeachment-trap-be-careful-what-you-wish-for

Found this on e-v.com this a.m. Makes a certain amount of sense. I don't want Trump, but the more I think about it, I really don't want Pence either. What scares me most about Pence is he'd likely be much more effective at getting everything on his agenda passed. While we're screwed either way, at least not much is getting passed at the moment.
 
Can't Dems just win because we have a good candidate with good ideas instead of hoping the Republicans implode? That strategy didn't work last time, and I'm not confident it will work in 2018 or 2020.

Oh yeah, we'll see a much better primary in 2020. You can't get any worse than Clinton and Sanders. And if Trump makes it to 2020, I'm thinking Sasse might primary him.
 
People keep saying that Pence would be more effective. I guess he could whip votes better, but the Republican dysfunction right now is in Congress.

The idea situation for Dems is that Republicans continue to be ineffective and more and more information from the investigations are damning to Trump and the party but Republicans refuse to make a move on Trump. Democrats can make two central arguments:

1. You think Washington is dysfunctional? It's clear that Republicans are the problem.
2. Republicans refuse to hold Trump accountable. Elect us and we will hold Trump accountable.

I would have thought this was possible a month ago. Now I think things are moving too fast. Something is going to have to give for Republicans within the next 10-12 months.
 
Agree Ph. I think most Pub pols hate Trump. But because he won the primary so easily, and he expanded the party a bit with his base, they're stomaching him for now. But once his approval gets down in the 20s, they'll be ready to toss him by the curb. But they have to wait till much more of the Pub base turns on him.
 
and why would we have Pence if Trump is removed? he has to be complicit in all of this. if he isn't, he's as big a rube as those who voted for him are.
 
I keep seeing overall/Pub approval at around 40/85. Even if overall approval drops below 30%, that's still around 2/3 of Republicans.
 
I believe that Pence is dangerous in the domestic policy realm of things but he is a huge upgrade in the foreign policy department in the sense that I don't think he'll start any wars (Which is setting the bar incredibly low). However, I don't think Pence will survive the fallout of all this Trump/Russia mess.
 
and why would we have Pence if Trump is removed? he has to be complicit in all of this. if he isn't, he's as big a rube as those who voted for him are.

He's at least helped out by Trump asking him to leave the room before asking Comey to drop the investigation. I'm guessing he's experienced and smart enough not to be complicit in any criminal activity. And if he's not indicted for any criminal activity, why would house Pubs impeach him as well?
 
and why would we have Pence if Trump is removed? he has to be complicit in all of this. if he isn't, he's as big a rube as those who voted for him are.

I think the Dems would call off the dogs if they got Trump, then deal with Pence on an actual political/legislative level.
 
How about a palace coup by Pence? The VP can say Trump is unfit for office.
 
Best case scenario is impeachment drags on for a year/year and a half, Trump and Pubs are hamstrung, dems have gains in '18, Pence (or Ryan, or whoever is left that is not implicated) becomes President in '19, Trump goes to jail, and bkf's granddaughter dates a black guy.
 
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