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Trump will be removed before he can finish his term

AsesinoDeTortugas said:
In my understanding, a pardon removes any possibility of self-incrimination and therefore asserting 5th Am rights becomes unnecessary. However, I don't know for certain whether that means Cohen (or any other person that might be pardoned in the future) would then be compelled to answer questions. I would think it would become a matter that is hugely contested, but a judge could compel Cohen to answer or they could subpoena his testimony under threat of criminal contempt.
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Trump can pardon only for federal offenses. Therefore if there are possible violations of state law, a pardon from Trump would not affect that situation in any way. Therefore, use of the Fifth Amendment to avoid self incrimination could still be possible.
 
palmab03 said:
It's almost as if you find them deplorable
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Nah, they are just the snowflakeyest of snowflakes. Someone being honest with them about the future of the American labor force and not blowing smoke up their asses about coal and immigrants made them angry and spiteful. That ain’t deplorable, Sally, that’s just pathetic and shows how far the GOP has misled and conned them over the past 35 years.
 
Right. But can you be pardoned of criminal contempt related to refusing to testify after being pardoned? A double pardon.
 
PhDeac said:
Right. But can you be pardoned of criminal contempt related to refusing to testify after being pardoned? A double pardon.
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Technically would be a separate offense so I think it would literally a possibility. But practically speaking, pardoning someone for a crime, then pardoning them again after they refuse to testify and are held in contempt probably leads to immediate filing of impeachment proceedings for obstruction of justice, because I don't think even the GOP will stomach Trump abusing the pardon power.

Important note that always seems to get lost is that, though Trump using (or abusing) the pardon power is legal, impeachment proceedings do not care about legality. It's purely a political mechanism.
 
AsesinoDeTortugas said:
Technically would be a separate offense so I think it would literally a possibility. But practically speaking, pardoning someone for a crime, then pardoning them again after they refuse to testify and are held in contempt probably leads to immediate filing of impeachment proceedings for obstruction of justice, because I don't think even the GOP will stomach Trump abusing the pardon power.

Important note that always seems to get lost is that, though Trump using (or abusing) the pardon power is legal, impeachment proceedings do not care about legality. It's purely a political mechanism.
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The GOP has quite the stomach for Trump.
 
WFFaithful said:
The GOP has quite the stomach for Trump.
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They do, and without knowing the results of the 2018 midterms, I'd put impeachment around 10% likely. But, the one thing we know the GOP wants more than anything is election wins. If Trump goes too far afield and starts pardoning willy-nilly, I can see a political environment where impeachment + trial + conviction + President Pence = a turning point that helps the GOP. The general consensus is that a lot of traditional GOP voters are abandoning ship because Trump and his agenda is so toxic. If Pence gains the Presidency, that's a much easier sell for those voters. All those lean Republican districts that are now tossups would likely go back to lean Pub, and the likely Pub districts that have become just leans would go back to likely.
 
Completely disagree. What you've described is what the rube masses would consider to be a deep state coup.
 
Yeah that could cause the rubes split off to form their own fake news-inspired, conspiracy-fueled, Russia-assisted party.

Wait they already have that now in the GOP. So yeah, they'll fall in line no matter what happens to Rube king. What else are they gonna do, vote for Satan democrats?
 
06deacon said:
Yeah that could cause the rubes split off to form their own fake news-inspired, conspiracy-fueled, Russia-assisted party.

Wait they already have that now in the GOP. So yeah, they'll fall in line no matter what happens to Rube king. What else are they gonna do, vote for Satan democrats?
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TITCR. Unless the tubes just straight up don’t vote, they are voting GOP. Enough rubes + independents + wavering traditional GOP voters could be enough.
 
So you all think Trump would just stay quiet and not encourage his loyalists to burn the whole thing down?
 
He doesn't have loyalists. The Apprentice was popular for a few seasons, then people got bored of it. Trump will never go down quietly, but people will get tired of him shortly after being out of office.
 
Deaconblue said:
Trump can pardon only for federal offenses. Therefore if there are possible violations of state law, a pardon from Trump would not affect that situation in any way. Therefore, use of the Fifth Amendment to avoid self incrimination could still be possible.
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Correct. In order to compel testimony, you'd have to grant immunity universally in all possibly jurisdiction, which would at least include NY, DC, VA and maybe FL.
 
palmab03 said:
He doesn't have loyalists. The Apprentice was popular for a few seasons, then people got bored of it. Trump will never go down quietly, but people will get tired of him shortly after being out of office.
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They may very well grow tired of him while he's still in office. That's one of his problems - just as his antics and persona grew old on The Apprentice, so people may tire of his new political reality show in the White House. I heard a GOP operative on a morning talk show last year discussing what he called "Trump Fatigue". We'll see if it sets in at some point.
 
Eh, I think that's ignoring the amount of anger, fear and bias his supporters feel. The Apprentice didn't tap into any of those things. Also, you don't even have to spend 30 minutes a week or whatever to blindly support him and yell about immigrants. You're assuming that his loyal followers are keeping as much a pulse on the happenings as the people here are, and I assure you, they are not. Trump is floating all of the headlines his supporters want to hear.
 
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Demonwolverine said:
Eh, I think that's ignoring the amount of anger, fear and bias his supporters feel. The Apprentice didn't tap into any of those things. Also, you don't even have to spend 30 minutes a week or whatever to blindly support him and yell about immigrants. You're assuming that his loyal followers are keeping as much a pulse on the happenings as the people here are, and I assure you, they are not. Trump is floating all of the headlines his supporters want to hear.
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Well said. That's the benefit of capitalizing on low information voters. Between Sinclair, Fox News, and church potlucks, Trump voters will remain loyal foot soldiers. bym's gif is dead on.
 
PhDeac said:
Well said. That's the benefit of capitalizing on low information voters. Between Sinclair, Fox News, and church potlucks, Trump voters will remain loyal foot soldiers. bym's gif is dead on.
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You watch your mouth when you talk about church potlucks. That's my favorite thing about church.
 
Demonwolverine said:
Eh, I think that's ignoring the amount of anger, fear and bias his supporters feel. The Apprentice didn't tap into any of those things. Also, you don't even have to spend 30 minutes a week or whatever to blindly support him and yell about immigrants. You're assuming that his loyal followers are keeping as much a pulse on the happenings as the people here are, and I assure you, they are not. Trump is floating all of the headlines his supporters want to hear.
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That may be true of his base, but I don't think that's true of the much larger group of independents, which is what I'm mainly talking about. I do think they are quite likely to grow tired of his act. I also think a good number of suburban Republicans (especially women) may not be so loyal to him as many think. I don't think those voters are as likely to turn out and vote this year as they were in 2016. I'm well aware of the anger and resentment of his base - I have plenty of relatives in my hometown who are diehard Trumpites - but I don't think these people are as numerous as many seem to think. Trump is of course playing to his base, but if the economy takes a dip or things go badly for him, as it inevitably will, I think, even some of his voters are going to grow weary of arguing on his behalf all the time. It doesn't have to be a large number to change elections. I just disagree that 100% of his 2016 supporters are going to be as fired up to vote this year or in 2020 as they were in 2016. People grow tired of the same old, same old, even in politics. To a large extent that affected both the Clintons and Bushes in 2016, people were sick of both families. We'll see if Trump can maintain the enthusiasm of his entire base through 2020. If even 10% of them drop out, he can't win.
 
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Highland Deac said:
That may be true of his base, but I don't think that's true of the much larger group of independents, which is what I'm mainly talking about. I do think they are quite likely to grow tired of his act. I also think a good number of suburban Republicans (especially women) may not be so loyal to him as many think. I don't think those voters are as likely to turn out and vote this year as they were in 2016. I'm well aware of the anger and resentment of his base - I have plenty of relatives in my hometown who are diehard Trumpites - but I don't think these people are as numerous as many seem to think. Trump is of course playing to his base, but if the economy takes a dip or things go badly for him, as it inevitably will, I think, even some of his voters are going to grow weary of arguing on his behalf all the time. It doesn't have to be a large number to change elections. I just disagree that 100% of his 2016 supporters are going to be as fired up to vote this year or in 2020 as they were in 2016. People grow tired of the same old, same old, even in politics. To a large extent that affected both the Clintons and Bushes in 2016, people were sick of both families. We'll see if Trump can maintain the enthusiasm of his entire base through 2020. If even 10% of them drop out, he can't win.
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I largely agree with this.

Change happens at the margins. You only need to persuade and shift a small percentage of voters to defeat Trump in 2020.

Not saying it will be easy (hell I thought he would lose in a landslide in 2016) but Trump has given zero fucks about anyone other than his base since he took office so he's basically been shedding supporters - especially independents. That alone will likely doom him and that's before taking into account Trump fatigue and less than enthused moderate Republicans.
 
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