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Bracketology 2017

Wakeforest22890 said:
Because Miami will still be a top 50 team.

Also, as has been mentioned by several people over the past few weeks it's really just a matter of "what is the committee looking for." Is there any question that Wake is around the 35-40th best team in the country at this point? Doesn't really seem to be. We've beaten every team we were supposed to beat and lost to every team we were supposed to lose to. If you're a fan of playing to your rank as a system, then we're right around 35-40. Similarly, if you're interested in metrics we've been right around the 35-40 mark for the past month (haven't been above 34, where we are now, and haven't dropped below 44 since the start of the LSU game). This team is by all accounts a bubble team and it's going to be interesting to see how a team who wins every game they should and loses every game they should stacks up against a team who knocked off a couple top 25 teams but also lost to teams worse than 75-100th. Wake consistently plays to its rank. KenPom is 22-0 on predicting outcomes for the Deacs.
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So then KP should accurately predict us losing to any higher seed, correct? So what would be the point of the committee having us in the tourny if we are assured of getting bounced in the first round?
 
CreamyGoodness said:
I also think a lot of folks could be ignoring our obvious improvement over the course of the season. Each game, we seem to play more controlled and are managing the tempo. Let us also not forget that we have one of, if not the best big man in the ACC currently playing like a monster.

It's easy to say that "we're not a tourney team" but there's a lot of basketball left to play, including the ACC tourney, and it's obvious that we are trending up and very capable on winning 4 or 5 more games.
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I mean, we just lost at home to a reeling Duke team that was locked out of their own locker room in shame, and struggled to beat an awful BC team.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I mean, we just lost at home to a reeling Duke team that was locked out of their own locker room in shame, and struggled to beat an awful BC team.
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A reeling Duke team that followed up a lucky win against us and beat Notre Dame on the road? Reeling or not, they're still VERY talented. I'm more worried about the Clemson and Cuse games.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I mean, we just lost at home to a reeling Duke team that was locked out of their own locker room in shame, and struggled to beat an awful BC team.
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Locking a team out of their locker room has nothing to do with the product on the court.

Duke is a top 15-20 team in the country. We should have won the game, and I don't think there are many people who watched that game that thought it would have been a fluke either. We WERE the better team. They had a guy go for 34 points on 10-10 second half shooting and we still almost won the game. It took 14 points on their final 5 possessions to beat us, and a final 6 second three-pointer. If he had missed that shot then everybody is happy-go-lucky about it.

I get that wins are pretty much all that matter at the end of the day, but if you are looking for predictive qualities, it matters that we are close in all these games and not getting blown out.
 
Duke is 17-5 and is 3-1 in last 4 ACC games with only loss being by 2 points to State. Sucks we couldn't close to deal, but they're going to be a top 5 seed in the tournament any way you slice it.
 
DR sees the writing on the wall. If we make The Dance this year, Danny will be at Wake for many years to come and DR's pal, Wes Miller, won't have a chance at Wake.
 
Ball State Deac said:
The Clemson, Cuse, and Duke loosses are such daggers. If we win won of those I'm feeling a lot better.
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If we won all 3 of those games we are likely an 8 or 9 seed. If we win both the home games, we are likely in as a 10 seed right now. Win one of those home games and we are likely in a play in game.
 
Wake was a one point underdog to Duke and lost by two. Wake was a seven point favorite over BC and won by five. Neither of those were deviations from what was expected.

Also if you're going to make the argument that Duke was "reeling" by losing three of four games (even though they have now won the last three), you have to also argue the opposite side of the coin which is BC has been "surging" relative to their starting position the last few weeks. Even though they've lost six in a row, all against top 55 teams in the country, their last four losses were to: UNC at home by 8, Miami on the road by 1, VPI at home by 6, and Wake at home by 5.
 
Hell BC was only down by four to UNC with 4 minutes left, is anyone out there arguing that UNC is somehow worse because they "only" led by four late and held on to win by eight against BC? I certainly haven't seen that argument made anywhere. The argument I see a lot of is: it's hard to win on the road in the ACC so any win is a good win.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Hell BC was only down by four to UNC with 4 minutes left, is anyone out there arguing that UNC is somehow worse because they "only" led by four late and held on to win by eight against BC? I certainly haven't seen that argument made anywhere. The argument I see a lot of is: it's hard to win on the road in the ACC so any win is a good win.
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UNC almost lost to Pitt at home the other night too.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Locking a team out of their locker room has nothing to do with the product on the court.

Duke is a top 15-20 team in the country. We should have won the game, and I don't think there are many people who watched that game that thought it would have been a fluke either. We WERE the better team. They had a guy go for 34 points on 10-10 second half shooting and we still almost won the game. It took 14 points on their final 5 possessions to beat us, and a final 6 second three-pointer. If he had missed that shot then everybody is happy-go-lucky about it.

I get that wins are pretty much all that matter at the end of the day, but if you are looking for predictive qualities, it matters that we are close in all these games and not getting blown out.
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The flip side of that is we let a guy go for 34 on 10-10 shooting, and gave up 14 points in the final 5 possessions, including a 3pointer in the last six seconds when everyone knew who would shoot it.

The entire national appeal of the NCAA Tournament is lower seeds finishing games against higher seeds. That is not us in any way, shape, or form. We'll be the lower seed, but will blow it at the end. We would be the UNCW to Maryland "struggle game" that we blow to the eventual national champion that everyone looks back on and wonders what could have been had we managed to pull it out, with One Shining Moment playing over clips of Crawford collapsing on the floor in despair after stepping out of bounds on a last-second attempt while Randolph buries his head in his hands on the bench.
 
You don't "let" someone go for 34.

My bad, there is no such thing as a "hot hand" in basketball.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
UNC almost lost to Pitt at home the other night too.
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Is Pitt the best 1-8 team in ACC history? I think we might have a better shot against Clemson than Pitt even on the road. Pitt beat UVA, lost to Notre Dame by 1, lost to Louisville by 5 on the road, and by 2 at UNC. They have some big guys who can really shoot it which is our #1 weakness. I hate that matchup for us - hopefully they'll have given up on the season by then and put up a performance like they did against Miami.
 
DCDeac said:
Is Pitt the best 1-8 team in ACC history? I think we might have a better shot against Clemson than Pitt even on the road. Pitt beat UVA, lost to Notre Dame by 1, lost to Louisville by 5 on the road, and by 2 at UNC. They have some big guys who can really shoot it which is our #1 weakness. I hate that matchup for us - hopefully they'll have given up on the season by then and put up a performance like they did against Miami.
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SHHHH. you can't talk about matchups...it's only what computers say.
 
Hard to say. They're definitely getting worse as the season progresses. Their record is actually better than it "should" be based off of their efficiency rating.
 
DCDeac said:
Is Pitt the best 1-8 team in ACC history? I think we might have a better shot against Clemson than Pitt even on the road. Pitt beat UVA, lost to Notre Dame by 1, lost to Louisville by 5 on the road, and by 2 at UNC. They have some big guys who can really shoot it which is our #1 weakness. I hate that matchup for us - hopefully they'll have given up on the season by then and put up a performance like they did against Miami.
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It's an interesting matchup. They have nobody who can guard Collins and we have nobody who can guard Artis or Young.

Our back court will need to be on for sure.
 
RJKarl said:
SHHHH. you can't talk about matchups...it's only what computers say.
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I mean, the computers are 22-0 so far, and I think the only games I've watched Pitt play were the UVA game and the UNC game, so I'd probably bet on the computers as well...
 
Not to mention that nobody here has ever said that we can't talk about matchups or to only rely on computers. Bit of a strawman argument.
 
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