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Bracketology 2017

TUA01576 said:
If we won all 3 of those games we are likely an 8 or 9 seed. If we win both the home games, we are likely in as a 10 seed right now. Win one of those home games and we are likely in a play in game.
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If we won all 3 of those games we'd be 16-6 (7-3) in the mid to upper 20s in KP. Basically about where Norte Dame is. That's a 5 seed. We win the two home games and we are somewhere around a 7 seed. Win 1 and we are safely in as a 10 seed.

We won zero and are squarely on the bubble.
 
RChildress107 said:
If we won all 3 of those games we'd be 16-6 (7-3) in the mid to upper 20s in KP. Basically about where Norte Dame is. That's a 5 seed. We win the two home games and we are somewhere around a 7 seed. Win 1 and we are safely in as a 10 seed.

We won zero and are squarely on the bubble.
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QFP that RC107 actually believes wins matter.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
The most recent studies I have read indicate that there is a slight increase in your odds of making the next shot if it is shot from nearly the exact identical location, and even then it is a negligible difference. I think it was somewhere between 1.2%-2.4% of an increase.

If you have a more recent/relevant link I would love to read it. I could easily be wrong on this as new data has come forth with VUAnalytics and Synergy Sports.
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Better watch out, I got negged for talking about this... :)

You don't need to shooting from the same identical spot. Part of having a hot is you hit from lots of places.

Some things simply can't quantified. It's basically crazy to say there isn't such a thing as a hot hand. My guess is even Pop, who likes stats, would laugh at anyone who said it didn't exist.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't think he ever said that wins don't matter.
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True. He has continually attempted to mock posters who believe there is a substantive difference between winning and losing close games.
 
RChildress107 said:
This type of post only makes sense if you care about things like strength of schedule and margin of victory. Of course if you care about those things then it becomes impossible to claim we aren't in the top 35-40 (i.e. squarely on the bubble).

If you bitch about us losing games without taking into account the margin or the quality of the opponent you don't get to bitch about the margin or the quality of the opponent when we win games.
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I did take into account the quality of the opponent. This Duke team is not very good in general, and was starting a death spiral when we played them. That wasn't '91 UNLV clicking on all cylinders. We should have won that game but stepped on our own dick (and rejuvenated their season in the process). A good team buries them and kicks them on down the road.
 
PhDeac said:
True. He has continually attempted to mock posters who believe there is a substantive difference between winning and losing close games.
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No I've mocked you for believing the difference is that of a 19-3 Top 10 team vs. a 13-9 team that sucks so bad there is no way it will make the tournament and hasn't progressed in the slightest since Manning took over the worst situation in Wake basketball history almost 3 years ago.

Wins matter but they don't happen in a vacuum.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I did take into account the quality of the opponent. This Duke team is not very good in general, and was starting a death spiral when we played them. That wasn't '91 UNLV clicking on all cylinders. We should have won that game but stepped on our own dick (and rejuvenated their season in the process). A good team buries them and kicks them on down the road.
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Right but when you take into account quality of opponents and margin of victory Duke is a top 15 team.

If you are evaluating our team based on quality of opponent and margin of victory then it doesn't make sense to ignore quality of opponents and margin of victory when evaluating the quality of our opponent.
 
RChildress107 said:
Right but when you take into account quality of opponents and margin of victory Duke is a top 15 team.

If you are evaluating our team based on quality of opponent and margin of victory then it doesn't make sense to ignore quality of opponents and margin of victory when evaluating the quality of our opponent.
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My main disagreement with people who are 100% wins/losses is that they say "oh yeah we beat Boston college but they're bad" and then proceed to say "we lost to Duke we suck how good they are doesn't matter we lost." Seems like you shouldn't be able to have it both ways (not saying you directed to you, RC. Just used you as a general statement)


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Duke is ranked:

13th in KenPom
9th in Sagarin
19th in RPI
21st in Coaches' Poll (pre-ND win)
21st in AP Poll (pre-ND win)

There are 351 teams that play D-1 basketball. Duke is "good in general"
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
My main disagreement with people who are 100% wins/losses is that they say "oh yeah we beat Boston college but they're bad" and then proceed to say "we lost to Duke we suck how good they are doesn't matter we lost." Seems like you shouldn't be able to have it both ways (not saying you directed to you, RC. Just used you as a general statement)


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We are in agreement.

From the point of view of fan enjoyment wins and losses matter a lot. In a vacuum I would much rather us be having a season like Maryland (20-2, 38 KP) than our season (13-9, 34 KP).

I also think that at a certain point wins and losses (particularly conference and postseason) have to be the most important factor when evaluating a coach's performance. It seems beyond silly to me to claim we are at that point with Manning.

But in predicting future wins and losses, past wins and losses aren't all that helpful. The same is true of evaluating a team's quality relative to the rest of college basketball or its progress (or lack thereof) year to year as a program.
 
I think we match up really really well against Duke. I like our chances in Cameron this year. Nothing to lose in that game and if Collins can stay out of foul trouble, they literally have nobody who can guard him.
 
jaybone said:
I think we match up really really well against Duke. I like our chances in Cameron this year. Nothing to lose in that game and if Collins can stay out of foul trouble, they literally have nobody who can guard him.
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That's a BIG if in Cameron. Though in general I don't think that game is as unwinnable as people think.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
My main disagreement with people who are 100% wins/losses is that they say "oh yeah we beat Boston college but they're bad" and then proceed to say "we lost to Duke we suck how good they are doesn't matter we lost." Seems like you shouldn't be able to have it both ways (not saying you directed to you, RC. Just used you as a general statement)


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An important point is that the NCAA selection committee (our ultimate season evaluator) has historically stressed the importance of wins against top teams (top 50 by whatever metric). We are lacking in that regard, so it's hard to feel confident the committee will like our resume, despite what the computers say. Not to mention winning against good teams is a lot more fun than blowing out mediocre teams.
 
TBDeac said:
An important point is that the NCAA selection committee (our ultimate season evaluator) has historically stressed the importance of wins against top teams (top 50 by whatever metric). We are lacking in that regard, so it's hard to feel confident the committee will like our resume, despite what the computers say. Not to mention winning against good teams is a lot more fun than blowing out mediocre teams.
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Yeah this is true, but didn't the NCAA just come out and say that they are taking into account way more metrics than usual?


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jaybone said:
I think we match up really really well against Duke. I like our chances in Cameron this year. Nothing to lose in that game and if Collins can stay out of foul trouble, they literally have nobody who can guard him.
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WTF?

You are correct that they have no one good enough to cover Collins. But Jefferson can slow him a little.

As shown in our last game (and discussed before the game), we have no one to cover Allen, Kennard and Tatum. I wish we had someone as close to any of those three as they do with Jefferson.
 
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bcobbdeacs said:
I think we have got to get to at least 18 wins to be minimally allowed in the door.
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As long as you're including the ACCT, no one's really suggesting otherwise.

Only scenario I could see at 17-14 would be if we're in the 8-9 game and we lose to a non-bubble team, like a Duke or maybe Clemson/VT if they've secured their spot by then
 
RJKarl said:
WTF?

You are correct that they have no one good enough to cover Collins. But Jefferson can slow him a little.

As shown in our last game (and discussed before the game), we no one to cover Allen, Kennard and Tatum. I wish we had someone as close to any of those three as they do with Jefferson.
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Jefferson struggled mightily. Not impressed. Granted he hasn't played well since missing two games and could find his form, but again, Duke is a thin team. They have to play Giles in the post and he takes absolutely horrific angles on defense. It is shocking how bad he is on defense.

As I said, the key is Collins, if he can stay out of foul trouble and plays more than the 20 minutes he played against Duke last week, I like our chances. We have more than a fighters chance.

They have a hard time guarding us inside out and we have a hard time guarding them on the wings. If Kennard hits 30 and someone else hits 20, we lose. If Collins hits 25 and someone else hits 18 (and Kennard doesn't get 30 and someone else doesn't get 20), we win. Need a 6 point lead at the 3-minute mark and again, Collins absolutely must avoid the silly fouls.

Giles can't guard anybody with inside skills. Would not draft. Likely a great kid, but I hope he is paying attention in his business classes because he is going to have to parlay that first and likely only NBA contract into a really nice set of car washes or dealerships somewhere.
 
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