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Bracketology 2017

WFUWaldo said:
I'm glad a thread on the bubble watch has turned into 90% a kenpom argument that has been debated for years. This is why we can't have nice things.
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It's because we don't have any other threads discussing the subject. Duh.
 
WFUWaldo said:
Results from Thursday

Michigan State (13-9, 5-4, KP 53) at Nebraska - Michigan State by 11. They're currently projected as an 8/9 seed

Memphis (16-6, 6-3, KP 73) at South Florida. Memphis by 10. They have a lot of work to do in order to get in the bubble conversation.

UNC Wilmington (20-3, 9-1, KP 55) vs. Charleston - Charleston by 1. Charleston is a decent team, but UNC-W has now lost two straight and they don't have any margin for error if they would hope to get an at-large bid if they don't win the Colonial tournament.

Mid Tennessee State (19-3, 9-0, KP 46) at UT San Antonio. MTSU by 10. They've won 10 straight and have an argument to be a 10/11 seed.

Utah (15-6, 6-3, KP 40) at California (15-6, 6-3, KP 58). Cal wins in double OT. Both Cal and Utah are straddling the bubble like Wake. Good win for Cal, and Utah missed an opportunity for a solid road win.
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UNC-W and MTSU must win their conference to get in.
 
RJKarl said:
UNC-W and MTSU must win their conference to get in.
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If MTSU runs the table in the regular season in CUSA but loses in the CUSA championship game they will still have a shot at getting in. They'd be 30-4 with a solid RPI.

After dropping the last two, you're probably right about UNC-W.
 
It is next year that the committee is talking about using more metrics. They are starting to talk about it now, about what to add - but it won't go into effect until next season.

General rules of thumb (there are a handful of exceptions over the years but not many) - must have at least 18 wins overall, must be at least 4 games over .500 to get any serious consideration. In order to get any consideration with those numbers you generally have to have a really high SoS and multiple Top 50 wins.
 
They still use RPI, and only once in history has a P5 team with an RPI of 40 or better not gotten an at large bid (2006, Cincinnati #40). Wake is currently #32.
 
We need to get to 17-13 (8-10) headed into the ACC-T, we likely then need to go at least 1-1 to feel decent about it. Anything less and I don't like our odds.
 
Only situation that I'd feel good about at 17 wins is if we win @Duke and beat Louisville but lose the 8/9 game to an NCAA lock team.

Our RPI would be at 40 or a little under and we'd have two top 25 wins.

I'm still nervous at 18 if our additional wins are: GT, State, Pitt, @ the worse of Clemson/VT, and BC.
 
I would feel a lot better about beating Louisville if we handled the press better than we do. I think we can hang with them in the half court. Any team that has the depth should be pressing us all game, every game. Especially when Lil Chill isn't on the court.
 
I don't think that Wake handles the press poorly as far as it creating turnovers. It just is a good tool to prevent WF from having enough time in the half court to get the ball in Collins' hands. It seems to often go unnoticed at how good this Wake team is at not turning the ball over compared to years past. Statistically Wake is currently #73 at turnover rate compared to a putrid #295 last season.
 
We don't break the press and make teams pay for using it - we slowly walk it up and wind up getting into our sets with less than 20 seconds on the shot clock.
 
I'm genuinely confused about the difference in treatment between Clemson and Wake in the bracketology projections since their resumes are very similar.
 
Clemson has 4 RPI Top 50 wins (granted, one is against #50 Georgia), two of which (S. Carolina and us) were on the road.

Top 50 wins is an important factor, perhaps the most important, but sometimes people act like it's the only one
 
We have a week to prepare for Louisville's press. We need to be ready to attack it
 
wsc8521s said:
Clemson has 4 RPI Top 50 wins (granted, one is against #50 Georgia), two of which (S. Carolina and us) were on the road.

Top 50 wins is an important factor, perhaps the most important, but sometimes people act like it's the only one
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Sure. But lack of Top 50 wins kills a bubble team.
 
We need to finish 5-3 in our last 8 games and win at least one game in the ACC and then hope for no upsets in other conference tournaments.
 
Yeah I was looking at KP top 50 wins not RPI. Forget sometimes how heavy a reliance on RPI there is.
 
PhDeac said:
Sure. But lack of Top 50 wins kills a bubble team.
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Not necessarily. Again, every team from a major conference with an RPI better than 49 has made the 68-team field, no matter how many RPI Top 50 wins they had. And we should be in that position at 8-10 in the ACC.

Georgia for example was #37 in RPI in 2014-15, had 0 RPI Top 50 wins, yet made the field and as a #10 seed to boot
 
My feeling is that the team is surprised when another team starts to press us. Depending on who we have on the floor we can be very slow to adjust. Eventually we do and at least can move the ball effectively. I think we saw in the 'cuse game where we did make them pay a few times with near half court alley-oops to Collins and/or Moore. Hopefully if we expect to be pressed as opposed to a team changing it up, we are better prepared.
 
I haven't watched any Louisville this year. Do they press at all times or do they throw it at you at random? Seems like the latter would be harder on our guys.
 
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