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Middle East: Saudis Murder & Dismember Washington Post Contributor

Arms and the Very Bad Men: Trump’s rationale for going easy on Saudi Arabia is a shameful lie.

Best read on site for embedded links.

A few days ago, Pat Robertson, the evangelical leader, urged America not to get too worked up about the torture and murder of Jamal Khashoggi, because we shouldn’t endanger “$100 billion in arms sales.” I guess he was invoking the little-known 11th Commandment, which says, “On the other hand, thou shalt excuse stuff like killing and bearing false witness if weapons deals are at stake.”

O.K., it’s not news that the religious right has prostrated itself at Donald Trump’s feet. But Trump’s attempt to head off retaliation for Saudi crimes by claiming that there are big economic rewards to staying friendly with killers — and the willingness of his political allies to embrace his logic — nonetheless represents a new stage in the debasement of America.

It’s not just that Trump’s claims about the number of jobs at stake — first it was 40,000, then 450,000, then 600,000, then a million — are lies. Even if the claims were true, we’re the United States; we’re supposed to be a moral beacon for the world, not a mercenary nation willing to abandon its principles if the money is good.

That said, the claims are, in fact, false.

First, there is no $100 billion Saudi arms deal. What the Trump administration has actually gotten are mainly “memorandums of intent,” best seen as possible future deals rather than commitments. Many of these potential deals would involve production in Saudi Arabia rather than the U.S. And the sales, if they did materialize, would be spread over a number of years.

It looks unlikely, then, that deals with Saudi Arabia will raise U.S. annual arms exports by more than a few billion dollars a year. When you bear in mind that the industries involved, mainly aerospace, are highly capital intensive and don’t employ many workers per dollar of sales, the number of U.S. jobs involved is surely in the tens of thousands, if that, not hundreds of thousands. That is, we’re talking about a rounding error in a U.S. labor market that employs almost 150 million workers.

Another way to look at Saudi arms sales is to notice how small the stakes are compared with other areas where Trump is casually disrupting business relations. He seems, for example, to be eager for a trade war with China, which imported $187 billion worth of U.S. goods and services last year.

Finally, it’s worth noting that under current conditions, increasing exports, even if you can do it, won’t create net additional jobs for the U.S. economy. Why? Because the Federal Reserve believes that we’re at full employment, and any further strengthening of the economy will induce the Fed to raise interest rates. As a result, jobs added in one place by things like arms sales will be offset by jobs lost elsewhere as higher rates deter investment or make the U.S. less competitive by strengthening the dollar.

But let’s get real: Trump isn’t going easy on the Saudis because of the jobs they provide to defense workers. His ever-inflating count of how many jobs are involved is in itself a dead giveaway that arms sales are an excuse, not a real motive, for his actions. So what’s the real reason he’s so willing to forgive torture and murder?

One answer is that he doesn’t actually disapprove of what the Saudis did. By now it’s a commonplace that Trump seems far more comfortable with brutal autocrats than with the leaders of our democratic allies. Remember, when Trump visited Saudi Arabia, his commerce secretary exulted over the fact that there were no protesters to be seen — something that tends to happen when protesters get beheaded.

Oh, and a president who proclaims that the news media are “enemies of the people” may feel that torturing and murdering a critical journalist is not such a bad idea.

Beyond that, the Saudis have funneled tens of millions of dollars to Trump personally, and are continuing to do so. And the very real millions going to Trump are a much more plausible explanation of his friendliness toward Mohammed bin Salman than the mythical billions going to U.S. arms manufacturers.

Of course, Trump loyalists bristle at the suggestion that he is letting his financial interests shape U.S. policy. But has Trump ever made a personal sacrifice in the public interest?

Anyway, we’re not supposed to have to trust that the big money a president receives from foreign governments isn’t influencing his decisions. The emoluments clause of the Constitution prohibits the president from accepting any such favors in the first place. Unfortunately, Republicans have decided that this clause, like so much of the Constitution, doesn’t apply when their party is in power.

So, as I said, what we’re looking at here is another step in the debasement of our nation. Accepting torture and murder is a betrayal of American principles; trying to justify that betrayal by appealing to supposed economic benefits is a further betrayal. And when you add in the fact that the claimed economic payoff is a lie, and that the president’s personal profit is a much more likely explanation for his actions — well, genuine patriots should be deeply ashamed of what we’ve come to as a nation.
 
Republicans won’t care if it comes out that the Saudis are funneling millions of dollars to Trump. They do not care.
 
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where's all the balanced coverage of Trump talking tough on Saudi Arabia?
 
A Saudi Murder Becomes a Gift to Iran


[Vali R. Nasr is the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.]


The Trump administration is not ready to admit it, but its Middle East strategy is in deep trouble, now compounded by the murder of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Turkey last month. The administration’s recent pressure on the Saudis to seek a truce in their war in Yemen is a clear signal of just how much the credibility of Saudi Arabia, which is at the heart of that strategy, has shrunk, perhaps even in President Trump’s eyes.

The strategy’s goal was to work with the Saudis to contain Iran’s influence in the Middle East. Instead, we can now expect a growing sense of ease in Tehran about exerting its influence, even as it adjusts to the tough economic sanctions that were reimposed last week. That freedom is more likely to be used through maneuvering and deal-making, rather than through aggressions.

It’s not as if Iran expects a change in American policy toward it in the aftermath of the Khashoggi affair. Instead, the weakening of confidence in Saudi Arabia throughout the region is more likely to confirm to Iran’s leaders the wisdom of their own current strategy — manage pressure from America by mobilizing domestic resources; rely on Europe, China and Russia to keep economic channels with Iran open; and consolidate Iran’s alliances and positions of influence politically.

Over the past year, Iran has been able to avoid escalating tensions with the United States, in part because it has confidence in Russia’s commitment to stay its course in Syria. Iran shows no sign of ever abandoning Syria, even as it stays surprisingly quiet in the face of repeated Israeli strikes on Iranian bases there.

Similarly, expectations of a confrontation in Iraq after the Iranian consulate in Basra was torched in September proved unwarranted. Instead, Iran quietly helped Iraqis forge a political alliance that formed a government reliant on Iranian-backed militias that the United States wants disbanded.

Now, the leaders in Tehran may well expect that a weakened Saudi Arabia could be compelled to end both its military campaign in Yemen and its blockade of Qatar. All along, the Iranians have sought talks with the Saudis, who may be ready to talk to them — especially if the Saudis take American advice and decide to end the Yemen war. The government in Riyadh may also find it necessary to mend relations with Iran to rebalance its relations with Turkey, which has been aligned with a buoyant Qatar and was further angered by the Saudi assassination on Turkish soil.

Remaining calm, in turn, might give Iran’s leaders greater confidence in their own bargaining power, perhaps to the point of talking to the United States about its nuclear and missile programs. The ruling circles in Tehran already seem confident that the economy has absorbed much of the shock of American sanctions and that Iran can sell enough oil and have enough trade with Europe, China, Russia and India to keep its economy afloat. Conservatives and moderates have formed a united front to rally the population to the flag and to fend off any popular discontent that the United States might hope economic hardship would bring.

The Trump administration has derided the nuclear deal, asserting that it was failing to curb Iran’s regional influence and claiming to want a new deal strong enough to do just that. But Mr. Trump will now find it even more difficult to deliver on his promise of forcing Iran to come to the table on his terms. If Iran comes at all, it will not be in a position of abject weakness. All it needs to do is remain committed to the deal it signed with Barack Obama and let Mr. Trump recognize that his “maximum pressure” strategy falls short. Then Tehran might be ready to talk.

From the start, the Trump administration thought it could rein in Iran’s regional influence by forging a close partnership with Saudi Arabia’s young crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. But a series of heavy-handed Saudi missteps, culminating in the murder of Mr. Khashoggi, have backfired, leaving Iran with much more room for strategic initiatives.

Relying on Saudi Arabia to contain Iran was always questionable. Saudi Arabia has never been truly successful at rolling back Iran’s regional presence, and in recent years Iran’s influence in the region has only grown. For example, Saudi Arabia has for all practical purposes washed its hands of Syria, leaving it to the United States to deal with Iran and the endgame of that conflict.

The greatest missteps started in 2015 with the ill-conceived war in Yemen, followed last year by a blockade that failed to ostracize Qatar and then a weekslong detention of the prime minister of Lebanon that failed to lessen his reliance on Hezbollah. All were clumsy attempts to make other Arabs afraid to deal with Iran and its allies. All had the opposite effect, with the region’s principal players — America’s friends among them — seeing Saudi Arabia as a greater menace than Iran.

The Khashoggi affair has been a watershed event. It brought into sharp relief the weakness at the core of Mr. Trump’s strategy, even as it weakened the crown prince himself, along with support for his partnership with America. The ability of Saudi Arabia to help Israel contain Iran and provide political cover for a final deal with the Palestinians now looks far-fetched. Israel’s hand has been weakened, while Turkey — which also wants greater regional influence and has shared Iran’s concerns about the budding alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia — has gained stature.

It is now clear that Saudi Arabia will not be able to lead a regional coalition to force Iran out of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and then Yemen. Unless Mr. Trump plans to send large numbers of troops to do that, and then have them stay on to make sure Iranian influence does not return, he can hope for regional stability only by focusing on first bringing the Middle East’s wars to an end. Then he would have to set aside his high hopes that “maximum pressure” can successfully deal with Iran on regional issues. Accepting those truths would not eliminate Iran’s influence, but it could set limits on it and provide time for the Arab world to recover and rebuild — which ultimately is the best way to check Iranian power.

As for Iran, it doesn’t need to flex its muscles. It just needs to wait for the Trump administration to fully appreciate the balance of power in the Middle East. As Mr. Trump’s mirage of an Arab order evaporates, a stark reality emerges: There is no credible Arab challenge to Iran’s regional influence, nor is there any prospect of reducing it with American threats and bluster.
 
 
White House weighs booting Erdogan foe from U.S. to appease Turkey

The White House is looking for ways to remove an enemy of Turkish President Recep Erdogan from the U.S. in order to placate Turkey over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to two senior U.S. officials and two other people briefed on the requests.

Trump administration officials last month asked federal law enforcement agencies to examine legal ways of removing exiled Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen in an attempt to persuade Erdogan to ease pressure on the Saudi government, the four sources said.

The effort includes directives to the Justice Department and FBI that officials reopen Turkey's case for his extradition, as well as a request to the Homeland Security Department for information about his legal status, the four people said.

Same guy Mike Flynn wanted to kidnap? WTF.
 
 
White House weighs booting Erdogan foe from U.S to appease Turkey who is mad at the Saudis for their pre-meditated murder of a U.S. journalist
 
Is Trump going to send Enes Kanter back to Turkey with Gulen?
 
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