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Wake Forest Football Recruiting

There is a big difference between basketball and football. In basketball, the top players face off against each other, and the even with more D-1 programs, recruiting classes are small. Football is far less accurate.

There is no doubt that there is some degree in accuracy in rating the top 100 players in the country (any idiot can look at 6-4 320 pound manchild Dexter Lawrence in HS and agree that he is special; so, when Clemson signs him over Bama and FSU; the rankings based on signing players of that type are likely to result in wins down the road for Clemson), maybe even the top 300 players in the nation, and so, the rankings based on the very top end of the available players have some validity. But, there are about 2500 football players that sign with FBS programs each year. Distinguising between #389 and #681 is not very accurate.

So, for teams like Bama and tOSU, it's not hard to determine how well they recruited, and the rankings are reasonably accurate at the top end. After the top 300, which amounts to the top 6 to 8 in a state like VA or NC, the ratings are not very accurate. As Dortch example presents, the 247 "recruiting" expert assigned to VA, just isn't as good at determining the 3rd best OG in VA as a college assistant coach assigned to the region. So, yes, when a school signs that the most 5 stars (and even 4 stars), that school is going to generally be, but not always, better than a school that signs 3 and 2 stars, but beyond that, when 247 tries to rank whether the 3 or 2 stars signed by Indiana or Minnesota or Texas Tech or Arizona State or Vandy or Iowa State are better than the 3 stars and 2 stars signed by WF, Duke or State, those rankings have no reliable degree of accuracy.

We all know that Dortch was considered undersized, not undertalented. (Although I'm not certain that's a huge concern in evaluating WRs.) Nevertheless, these "diamonds" remain the exceptions that prove the rule. And if that wasn't true, Wake would be as talented as FSU or even just NCSU. You and others can go ahead and decry recruit rankings but as I state and as you seem to acknowledge, there's a general correspondence between program success and their recruit rankings. Don't read too much into this, but if you don't read anything into it then you end up like Jim Grobe's staff that openly declares that recruiting is the least material aspect of a college program and has a record to match.
 
Perhaps, my response to was too long. Agree that recruiting rankings have "validity" on the top end, but as you get away from the top 5 in a state; the rankings of #23 in NC versus #34 in NC lack the same validity.

FWIW, Wisconsin's run of success destroys the myths of the recruiting rankings. Over the past five years, Wisconsin is 53-13 (that's an average year of just about 11-2 a year). As of the start of the NFL season 32 players from Wisconsin were on NFL rosters (13th most among all NCAA teams), yet in the last 5 years, their class recruiting rankings are : #40, #32, #41, #35 and #39. During that period, they never had a class ranked as high as Penn State, UCLA, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Oregon, UNC (!!!), Ole Miss, South Carolina among others, yet, they have had a far better teams, far better record (by 3 wins a season on average or more) and produced more NFL players than any of those schools (and there are more Wisconsin players on the way). How is that possible if recruiting rankings properly evaluated the #4 OT from Texas versus the #2 OT from Wisconsin (fwiw, during that time Wisconsin had a coach, Gary Anderson, who won at Wisconsin, left and then spectacularly crashed at Oregon State; so, it's not all coaching; there is talent that just was not properly evaluated by the experts)?

The rankings were massively wrong because it's impossible to know if a 3 star OLB from Platteville, Wisconsin is as a good as a 4 star OLB from Greer, SC; there is just no way to compare and accurately evaluate that many players who face massively different levels of competition. Wisconsin had more talent than all of the schools with superior recruiting rankings every single season (is there anyone that could rationally argue that UNC or Tennessee had more talent this year than Wisconsin; yet, Wisconsin didn't come close to sniffing those schools in recruiting rankings); the rankings were flat out wrong, because once you get away from the best of the best (the players that are obviously the best) there is just no tool for measuring who is better on a national scale.
 
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2018 Wake Forest Football Recruiting

Wisconsin football and basketball are outliers.

Recruiting rankings are not perfect and a lot can happen between a kid's junior year and when that young man's opportunity to contribute and how it meshes with 10 other young men if he gets on the field.
 
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Our staff better rely on Wisconsin-like ability to evaluate and coach up players, because we're still light years behind Duke, NW, Stanford, etc. in recruiting. It is kind of troubling that Clawson hasn't been able to parlay our recent success (relative) and facility enhancements into higher ranked recruits. Perhaps sustained success is the key there?
 
These were the receivers in VA ranked ahead of Dortch in the HS Class of 2016 by 247 and their ranking within VA and # of stars (you would think that the rating services could at least have a clue ranking the players in the same area that play against some of the same competition):

#2 - 4 star - Scott Bracey - 8 receptions 73 yards 0 TDs (Duke, yes Duke inked the #2 rated recruit in VA, but he was not the player that Dortch is)
#13 - 3 star - Grant Holloway - Quit football to run track at Florida (FL)
#15 - 3 star - Eric Kumah - 23 catches 252 yards 2 TDs (VT)
#17 - 3 star - Phil Patterson - 2 receptions 29 yards 0 TDs (VT)
#18 - 3 star - Joe Reed - 21 receptions 232 yards 2 TDs (UVA)
#22 - 3 star - Cole Blackman - appeared in 4 games in as freshman did not catch a pass (UVA)
#32 - 3 star - Donaven Tennyson 8 receptions 117 yards 0 TDs for the season (Vandy)

#64 - 2 star - Greg Dortch 53 catches 722 yards 9 TDs (more yards and TDs than the above-group combined) All-ACC honors as a receiver and an all-purpose player (may have been the ACC FOY if not for his spleen injury).

BTW, it's not like Dortch was an unknown quantity in VA his senior year. His HS, Highland Springs won the 5A State Championship - Dortch was the Richmond area POY of the year as senior in HS, and he was MVP of the State Championship game. Love exposing how flawed recruiting rankings are.

It will be interesting to compare Dortch to some of these guys in 2-3 years. Especially at VT, where there are likely "better" players in front of those recruits and they didn't see the field much. Dortch playing as much as he did as a RS-F is rare.

That being said, Dortch was a great find, and should continue to have a productive career.

For Example. Comparing Leon Washington's stats to Chris Barclay in 2002. Barclay had the much better freshman year, and went on to have a great career. BEst RB ever at wake in fact. But Washington turned out just fine, and had a 9 year NFL career.
 
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A month or two ago we were pursuing a RB from Georgia I believe who had a unique name. What happened to him?

I think you may be thinking of Emeka Nwanze. Don’t think there’s any smoke at the RB position right now.
 
I think you may be thinking of Emeka Nwanze. Don’t think there’s any smoke at the RB position right now.

That's him. Has he committed anywhere? 247 shows him as favoring Wake.
 
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Nwanze wants a package deal with his brother. We don't need him that bad.
 
The difference between #7 and #14 is so small that it isn't significant.
 
Do we have any interest in Demarcus Gregory, the WR committed to Ole Miss? Also, all Ole Miss players are free to transfer without sitting out? Any interest in any of their players?
 
Whoa. Could just be showing the love since he's headed to Winston now for an official (I assume it's an official), but pretty awesome either way. He's an UA All American. Have we ever had one of those? I don't think so.

Yeah I’m not reading too into it. We’re going up against Georgia, Bama, etc. straight up, so one would think It’d be tough to sway him. We do have his cousin here as others have mentioned. Hopefully Clawson can get that commitment - our reviving Corp will be absolutely filthy next year.
 
He plays QB in HS. Any chance we're telling him he'd have a shot to win that job? I'm betting that's what Louisville is doing.
 
Ordinarily I'd say we offer playing time over those schools but we can't even guarantee that.
 
Whoa. Could just be showing the love since he's headed to Winston now for an official (I assume it's an official), but pretty awesome either way. He's an UA All American. Have we ever had one of those? I don't think so.

I think Camp may have been.
 
Dom Maggio was a UA All-American, and played in the UA All-Star game.
 
It will be interesting to compare Dortch to some of these guys in 2-3 years. Especially at VT, where there are likely "better" players in front of those recruits and they didn't see the field much. Dortch playing as much as he did as a RS-F is rare.

That being said, Dortch was a great find, and should continue to have a productive career.

For Example. Comparing Leon Washington's stats to Chris Barclay in 2002. Barclay had the much better freshman year, and went on to have a great career. BEst RB ever at wake in fact. But Washington turned out just fine, and had a 9 year NFL career.

I'm not sure what point you are making with the Barclay and Washington example. When I read your comment I figured that Barclay had a much better first year and then he and Washington were fairly even after that. Not even close:

Rush Yards
2002 Washington-273, Barclay-703
2003-5 Washington-1768, Barclay-3329
 
Yeah I’m not reading too into it. We’re going up against Georgia, Bama, etc. straight up, so one would think It’d be tough to sway him. We do have his cousin here as others have mentioned. Hopefully Clawson can get that commitment - our reviving Corp will be absolutely filthy next year.

Bama did not make his top 5
 
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