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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

DeacWatcher said:
It happened in Alabama.
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Lol, because the pubs ran a probable pedophile, 8% of registered pubs secretly voted for a democrat. Dems will win big in the South as long as they are running against probable pedophiles.
 
There are other ways republicans can embarrass themselves.
 
8% seems about the norm for cross-party voting. 7% of Republicans voted for Hillary, 8% Obama '12, 7% Obama '08. 9% of Dems voted for Trump, 7% Romney, 10% McCain.

To the extent Republicans had a hand in electing Doug Jones it was largely by staying home. (Or, in line with secretly voting D, they lied in the exit polls.)
 
Romney faces clearer path to GOP Senate nomination despite convention setback

Still, the delegates’ rebuff was a setback and underscored that Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts who made Utah his primary residence just five years ago, has not yet made the sale with Republican voters. Kennedy had depicted himself as a bona fide Utahan, and portrayed Romney as an establishment interloper, an attack that landed with some Republican delegates.

“We need a candidate who’s actually lived, worked and raised a family in the state of Utah,” Kennedy said last month as he entered the race. At the convention, he embraced a David and Goliath comparison, pitching himself to delegates as “your stone, ready to be flung at the foes of liberty who seek to oppress us.”
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At the convention, Romney sought to cast himself as a Utahan battling Washington.

“Some people I’ve spoken to today have said this is a ‘David versus Goliath’ race, but they’re wrong,” Romney told delegates on Saturday. “I’m not Goliath. Washington, D.C., is Goliath. I’m your neighbor.”
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Democrats have a candidate on the ballot in every single 2018 Colorado congressional, statehouse and major statewide race

“Democratic enthusiasm for the 2018 election is off the charts, and we’re capitalizing on that by running strong candidates in places we have never targeted before,” Matthew McGovern, executive director of House Majority Project, said in a written statement. “Having a Democratic candidate running in every district not only improves our chances of expanding the majority in the House and retaking the majority in the Senate, but it will help drive up Democratic turnout across the state and help provide campaign infrastructure for statewide candidates.”
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Daniel Cole, spokesman for the Colorado GOP, said there are advantages and disadvantages to having people running in every single race.

On the one hand, active candidates help circulate the party’s message and can rally the base, he said. On the other, those who stand little to no chance of winning can be a drain on resources.
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Happy Tuesday! The Congressional race in Arizona will get the most attention today, but NY has a bunch of special elections for state level seats as well. Here are the seats, what party most recently held them, and what % of the vote they received in 2016:

NY 5 - R 64%
NY 10 - R 59%
NY 17 - R 63%
NY 39 – D unopposed (2018 D candidate also unopposed)
NY 74 – D 82%
NY 80 – D 85%
NY 102 - R unopposed
NY 107 - R unopposed
NY 142 – D unopposed

NY senate 32 – D 97%
NY senate 37 - D 56%

N.Y. state politicians battle for Senate seats in special election faceoff

On Arizona:

The ALS Activist Who Thinks He Can Flip a Deep Red Arizona District

Along with their launch, organizers put out a heart-tugging video of Barkan talking about his struggle with ALS over the past year and addressing his young son Carl. The stated purpose of the group is to galvanize support for progressive candidates in the midterm elections. But those close to Barkan saw an opportunity to first test his message in Arizona before November comes.

On Thursday, the progressive group Working Families Party announced that they’d be teaming up with Barkan to front the $100,000 for the ad campaign, which featured some of the previously mentioned Barkan footage and an appeal from Barkan to vote for Tipirneni. The spot will run through election day.

“We think Ady's story is particularly powerful, and this special election is an opportunity to test drive it before November, and learn if it can help move the dial,” Joe Dinkin, communications director for WFP told The Daily Beast. “If this race in a Republican district shows up as even close, I think we'll know that Ady's story and stories like his are powerful electoral tools to show the human impact of Trump and the Republican congress' greed.”
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‘I Was Trump Before Trump Was Trump’

In Indiana, Representative Todd Rokita, a Republican candidate for Senate, proudly slaps on a red “Make America Great Again” cap in a new ad as he promises to “proudly stand with our president and Mike Pence to drain the swamp.”

Not to be outdone, one of Mr. Rokita’s opponents, Luke Messer, tarred Mr. Rokita as “Lyin’ Todd,” an echo of Mr. Trump’s epithet for Senator Ted Cruz, “Lyin’ Ted.” Mr. Messer’s gripe? Mr. Rokita falsely claimed to have received the president’s endorsement.
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To be fair, lying is very Trumpish.

 
Add Maine Governer Paul Lepage to teh "I was Trump before Trump" list. (He's had more than a few Trump-like moments, including the D-money line).
 
Looks like the Republican will likely win AZ8 but I don't think any Republican feels safer after tonight.

 
So an immigrant candidate flipped over a third of Trump precincts in a very Trump heavy district. Impressive.


https://www.politico.com/story/2018...-break-special-election-losing-streak-550112v

“Republicans shouldn't be hitting the alarm, they should be slamming it," said Mike Noble, a GOP pollster based in Arizona. He added: "This district isn't supposed to be competitive, and so to see this margin, especially with the Republicans pouring in resources here — again, it's a tough year."

Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor from Arizona, said Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and other GOP candidates need to be on high alert this fall.
"These election results are a wake up call to Republicans in Arizona and nationally," Eberhart said. "Winning the Arizona 8th by such a small margin portends very little margin of error for Gov. Doug Ducey and the eventual Arizona Republican Senate nominee this fall."
Former Rep. Trent Franks triggered the 8th Congressional District special election in 2017 when he resigned amidst allegations of sexual impropriety, and the GOP remained in control of the race to retain his seat from the get-go. National Republican groups poured in more than $1 million into the district to boost Lesko and prevent another special election from getting out of hand.
The district’s Republican tilt showed through as over 150,000 residents voted early in the weeks leading up to the special election. Nearly half of those early voters were registered Republicans, according to Arizona’s secretary of state office, while just over one-quarter were registered Democrats.
But independent and late-breaking voters appear to have swung toward Tipirneni. Before the election, Tipirneni’s pollster, Josh Ulibarri, said their internal tracking polls found that Tipirneni was attracting some crossover Republican support.


“What you’re seeing is that Donald Trump is toxic, even in bright red Republican territory,” said Rodd McLeod, a Democratic consultant based in Arizona who worked on Tipirneni’s campaign. “Independent voters are dismayed and distressed by what they’re seeing out of Trump’s Washington.”
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So we were worried about maintaining the energy but instead the results are improving. All these groups that formed after 2016 are building the infrastructure and getting better at turning that energy into participation. (Still have to remind ourselves not to be complacent.)

On Arizona, early votes were supposed to account for about 80% of the vote. Republicans were out-voting Dems in early voting 49%-28%. A 5 point loss is bananas.

Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP

NY 102 and NY 107, where no Dem ran in 2016, the Dem candidates each lost by less than 300 votes.
 
PhDeac said:
According to an extremely useful comprehensive spreadsheet compiled by Daily Kos, across 70 special elections in 2017, Democrats ran 10 points ahead of Clinton and 7 points ahead of Obama’s 2012 results. Those numbers have accelerated into 2018. Across 27 races, Democrats are running 21 points ahead of Clinton and 10 points ahead of Barack Obama.

https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17278470/new-york-special-election-results-assembly-district-10
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This tells me that, on the whole, America considers the level of Donald's putridity to be greater than the level of Obama's excellence. Which I'm OK with, whatever gets us going back in the right direction. Just wish we didn't have to go through this charade to come to this conclusion.
 
Liberals like to complain and they took Obama’s excellence for granted.
 
The numbers are based on margins, not vote totals. I doubt any special election has had a higher Dem turnout than 2012 or 2016. Dems problem was not their feelings about Obama, but how they showed up when he wasn't on the ballot.

More numbers on Arizona, where Lesko's lead is now below 5 pts:

 
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