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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Newenglanddeac said:
This is off to a good start.

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Geez. They have no shame. Good thing I haven't been on Facebook today.

I talked to a colleague who right in the Bernie wheelhouse. 60-something liberal white guy, active in social movements. He and his wife made the "practical vote" for Graham. I think there are plenty of Dem voters in that group. I think it will be easier to get Graham voters to go for Gillum than the other way around. Kind of how it was easily to get Hillary voters to go to Obama, but it wasn't that easy to get Bernie voters to go to Hillary.

I'm curious if Gillum will be able to draw any Putnam supporters. It may seem like a big gap to cross, but Putnam had a good reputation in Hillsborough (Tampa) and Polk (the county between Tampa and Orlando) counties as a moderate or at least rational Republican. Would they vote Gillum if DeSantis is a bridge too far? I would hope comments like that would hurt DeSantis with some Republicans who aren't too far gone.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Are there many Blue Dogs in FL, Ph?
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Not really, not in the sense we traditionally think of blue dogs. I think the traditional blue dogs have changed parties or are without a home. The closest blue dog candidate was Putnam.

There are conservative Puerto Ricans who may be turned off to DeSantis and could be persuaded to go for Gillum. There are also young Cubans in Miami who are gradually getting off the Trump train.
 
40388861_10160855993695165_6610661852089155584_o.jpg
 
I have to agree that DeSantis wasn't being racist in cajoling the candidate not to monkey up the election. After all would a racist make a campaign ad where he teaches his two year old to "build the wall"?

Building a wall and calling someone a monkey has nothing to do with race.
 
Gov. Doug Ducey, Democrat David Garcia to face off for Arizona governor in November

Garcia had until last year been weighing another bid for state schools superintendent, having lost narrowly in 2014 to Douglas despite her running as a kind of one-note candidate under the banner of eliminating the Common Core curriculum.

But that was before Ducey signed legislation last year to create universal vouchers, allowing any student to get state tax dollars to attend private and parochial schools.

Garcia called that “the most devastating blow to public education in state history” as he changed his focus and decided to seek the gubernatorial nomination.

Garcia also has been linked closely to the Red for Ed movement and got the endorsement of the Arizona Education Association.
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4 dead people, 59 fraudulent signatures found on petitions filed by Scott Taylor's campaign

The Pilot reached 115 of the 584 people listed – or a family member – by phone. Reporters were unable to contact the remaining 469, either because the name listed was illegible, no phone number could be found, or the person did not return messages.

Of those reached, 51 people – including several local Republican politicians – acknowledged signing the petition. Six others weren’t sure whether they did.

But 59 – more than half of those reached – declared the signatures to be fraudulent.
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The campaign of Scott Taylor, Republican incumbent in VA-2, filed a bunch of fake / forged signatures to help get an Independent candidate on the ballot.
 
 
PhDeac said:
The only Gillum ads I saw were online.
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The latest episode of Favreau's (from PSA) the Wilderness discusses how Dems should deal with media and getting their message out. One thing they discussed is how a lot of the old school consultants that Dems are used to going to are ad-makers, and they push for heavy spending on TV ads, when digital is now so much more effective (and cheaper.)

Likewise I believe Beto has only released one TV ad.
 
It seems like people get more annoyed by TV ads and are likely to fast forward past them anyway. Online ads can go viral and reach the target audience whereas TV ads can rile up the other side.
 
Especially when the voting demographics are so skewed toward old Republicans watching the TV and young Democrats who are glued to their phones. Oversimplification obviously, but in a mid term, turnout is the name of the game. You're not going to turn out 20-somethings running traditional ads at 8:17PM during the NBC sitcoms.
 
PhDeac said:
Geez. They have no shame. Good thing I haven't been on Facebook today.

I talked to a colleague who right in the Bernie wheelhouse. 60-something liberal white guy, active in social movements. He and his wife made the "practical vote" for Graham. I think there are plenty of Dem voters in that group. I think it will be easier to get Graham voters to go for Gillum than the other way around. Kind of how it was easily to get Hillary voters to go to Obama, but it wasn't that easy to get Bernie voters to go to Hillary.

I'm curious if Gillum will be able to draw any Putnam supporters. It may seem like a big gap to cross, but Putnam had a good reputation in Hillsborough (Tampa) and Polk (the county between Tampa and Orlando) counties as a moderate or at least rational Republican. Would they vote Gillum if DeSantis is a bridge too far? I would hope comments like that would hurt DeSantis with some Republicans who aren't too far gone.
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Approximately 108,000 more Republicans voted in the Fl Primary for Gov. That’s about a 7% difference in turnout.
 
Yeah. Democrats closed the gap significantly compared to 2010. Dems had 863,698. Republicans had 1,282,957. Yet Rick Scott won the general by 61,550 votes.

Turnout looks very good for Dems.
 
Voter registration has trended away from the Dems for years in FL. That has contributed to the turnout deficit. I don’t think veering left is going to be the answer. Should be an interesting election.
 
Downward trend, but it hasn't changed much since 1996 or so.
https://dos.myflorida.com/elections...rty-affiliation/by-party-affiliation-archive/

Since 1996, Democrats have between 51.3% and 53.9% of the Dem or Pub registrations. The real downward trend is in either party registration. Only 72% of registered voters are Dem or Pub. That number was 87% in 1996.

There are plenty of people who don't register Dem because they're left of the party. There's not much room right of Republicans.
 
PhDeac said:
Geez. They have no shame. Good thing I haven't been on Facebook today.

I talked to a colleague who right in the Bernie wheelhouse. 60-something liberal white guy, active in social movements. He and his wife made the "practical vote" for Graham. I think there are plenty of Dem voters in that group. I think it will be easier to get Graham voters to go for Gillum than the other way around. Kind of how it was easily to get Hillary voters to go to Obama, but it wasn't that easy to get Bernie voters to go to Hillary.

I'm curious if Gillum will be able to draw any Putnam supporters. It may seem like a big gap to cross, but Putnam had a good reputation in Hillsborough (Tampa) and Polk (the county between Tampa and Orlando) counties as a moderate or at least rational Republican. Would they vote Gillum if DeSantis is a bridge too far? I would hope comments like that would hurt DeSantis with some Republicans who aren't too far gone.
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Putnam is in the pocket of Big Sugar and was rightfully vilified on the East Coast as part of the reason for all the water problems. DeSantis has not taken any sugar money...yet.

It’s a huge issue on this side of the State and I can see pubs who voted for DeSantis as a de facto vote against Putnam. Doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Gillum in November, but Putnam wasn’t exactly viewed as moderate or rational in other parts of the State.
 
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