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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Well we couldn't expect Republicans to play fair.


The only good news is I feel yard signs are a show of support rather than an effective means of advertising.
 
That's true. But in this case I think it's important because Dem voters need a reason to show up to the polls. Ossoff is definitely going to make the runoff. If Dem voters see more yard signs, maybe they'll be encouraged to vote thinking he could reach 50% as well.

Based on the polls, it's possible Ossoff gets 46-48% but falls short because a few people voted for the other Dem candidates.

In other news, Alabama's special election for Jeff Sessions' seat will be in December after an August primary and September runoff.
 
That's true. But in this case I think it's important because Dem voters need a reason to show up to the polls. Ossoff is definitely going to make the runoff. If Dem voters see more yard signs, maybe they'll be encouraged to vote thinking he could reach 50% as well.

Based on the polls, it's possible Ossoff gets 46-48% but falls short because a few people voted for the other Dem candidates.

In other news, Alabama's special election for Jeff Sessions' seat will be in December after an August primary and September runoff.

If Democrats can't be motivated to vote by what's happening in Washington, a yard sign isn't going to help and we might as well give up.

I didn't know there were other Democrat candidates. The news talks about 11 or so Republicans, but only Ossoff as the Democrat.
 
If Democrats can't be motivated to vote by what's happening in Washington, a yard sign isn't going to help and we might as well give up.

I didn't know there were other Democrat candidates. The news talks about 11 or so Republicans, but only Ossoff as the Democrat.

The latest poll I saw had Ossoff at 46% and two other Dems at 1% each. As we know, Dems love to kill themselves by voting for people who have no chance at winning just to make a point.

I see what you're saying but it's still an April runoff for a special election. Translating anger to votes is a big problem to solve.
 
There are four other Dem candidates, 18 candidates total (two independents). People really want to represent the 6th district of Georgia.
 
That's true. But in this case I think it's important because Dem voters need a reason to show up to the polls. Ossoff is definitely going to make the runoff. If Dem voters see more yard signs, maybe they'll be encouraged to vote thinking he could reach 50% as well.

Based on the polls, it's possible Ossoff gets 46-48% but falls short because a few people voted for the other Dem candidates.

In other news, Alabama's special election for Jeff Sessions' seat will be in December after an August primary and September runoff.

Oh interesting. I thought that in most states, the replacement senator appointed by the governor got to serve the entire term
 
Maybe it depends on how much of the term is left. The term ends in 2020.
 
Oh interesting. I thought that in most states, the replacement senator appointed by the governor got to serve the entire term

Alabama actually has some sort of rule about having a special election within a certain time period (I don't know the details), but the recently ousted Gov Bently and the new Gov Ivey, were trying to delay until the 2018 election cycle. They made the argument that it would cost the state an extra $12 million to run a special election and that we can't afford it but if they did it as part of the regular 2018 elections it would not cost any extra money. I think Bently's ouster last week forced them into a special election this year.
 
GA-6 results coming in. Very early results have Ossoff up big in areas Hillary won.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6

Analysis:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/18/us/politics/georgia-special-election-live.html

[h=3]Nate Cohn[/h] [h=4]Reporter with The Upshot[/h] 8:10 PM ET One tiny note to keep in mind: So far, 1 percent of the early vote has gone to the no-name Democratic candidates in the race (there are four others on the ballot). That could be quite painful to Democrats if Ossoff finishes at 49 percent or so.
 
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His campaign or those associated with called me twice, sent three text messages, and left a note on my front door.
 
Ossoff hitting great early vote numbers as expected, but seems to be so well that 50% is in play. This means he'll probably get 49.4% with the other dems combining for 0.8% or something.
 
This is going to be a fun one to watch tonight.

 
It's a big fucking deal if he wins outright tonight. Hell its a big deal this is even a close race. Still really early and a long way to go though.
 
Interesting comment in the NYT analysis.

[h=3]Alex Burns[/h] [h=4]Political Reporter[/h] 8:50 PM ET And that’s what I heard over and over from conservative-leaning folks in the district.


Not that they were going to desert the G.O.P. and vote for Democrats, or that they had changed their minds on policy. But that they felt like Congress was a mess and they didn’t feel they’d gotten a good bargain for their votes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/...-party-raising-republican-fears-for-2018.html

Interviews with Republican-leaning voters in four suburban districts — in Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota and New Jersey — revealed a sour outlook on the party. These voters, mainly white professionals, say they expected far more in the way of results by now, given the Republican grip on power in the capital. In opinion polls, they consistently give Mr. Trump mediocre approval ratings, even as he remains solidly popular with lower-income whites.

Republicans may face a tougher test next week in Georgia, where both parties have poured millions into contesting the seat vacated by Tom Price, Mr. Trump’s new health and human services secretary. At a well-tended shopping mall outside Atlanta, Eric Riehm, 48, said he was beginning to question the point of casting his ballot for Republicans.
“The vote seems to matter less and less, because nothing can be done, just like repealing Obamacare,” said Mr. Riehm, who works in information technology sales and voted for Mr. Trump.
That malaise cuts across regional lines: In the New Jersey district held by Representative Leonard Lance, a Republican, Joe Boyle, 61, said he took a dim view of Mr. Trump but still hoped he would turn things around.
Mr. Boyle, who said he usually votes Republican, faulted the party for failing to “do the homework” on health care, and criticized lawmakers for focusing on their own interests instead of forging bipartisan agreements.

“It’s all about ‘me,’ not about the better good of the overall population,” said Mr. Boyle, who recently retired as a marketing executive at Johnson & Johnson. Of Mr. Trump, he added: “He’s a mess.”
 
It's a big fucking deal if he wins outright tonight. Hell its a big deal this is even a close race. Still really early and a long way to go though.

The N.Y. Times crew had some good takes on this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/18/us/politics/georgia-special-election-live.html

It's a big deal in some ways if Dems win this district. I grew up in the GA 6th and I can tell you that this was a place where every SUV had one of those "W--The President" stickers on it.

That said, it's not clear how well this indicates the viability of Dems in other GOP districts. GA6 is pretty unique--it's the most well-educated Republican district in the country. This is the land of Romney, not of Trump. So in the more rural GOP districts (and there are a lot of them), it's not clear that a swing here means much of anything. That said, you have to think that any GOP congressperson who won by less than 10 points is going to be shitting themselves and so it may have an effect on how they cooperate with some of Trump's crazier ideas--in other words it may push the non-Freedom Caucus members closer to the center.
 
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