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Thread: '17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

  1. #2541
    Quote Originally Posted by avalon View Post
    Dems flipped a county commissioner seat in Florida today. The Republican candidate is the wife of the incumbent, who stepped down to run for Congress.

    Gonna quote myself here. I know it isn't as fun as messing with the dude that can't quit us, but this is a big deal. This district usually votes Dem at the top of the ballot and R down ballot. Marco Rubio lives here. Their Republican congresswoman won re-election in 2016 by 10 pts despite the district going for Clinton by 20 pts. That congresswoman is not running for re-election. The Republican who held this seat, a 20 year incumbent and a Trump supporter, stepped down to run for Congress. He pushed for a quick special election believing it would favor his wife's chances to win.

    The Republican had money and name recognition. The Democrat had volunteers. (And she's a Moms Demand volunteer.)

    Conventional wisdom had Barreiro the favorite, since she was expected to pick up most of Diaz de la Portilla's voters, a fellow Republican Cuban American. But Diaz de la Portilla didn't endorse in the race, and the Higgins ground game appeared to narrow the traditional advantage Republicans enjoy in mail-in balloting, which accounted for six out of every 10 votes cast in the District 5 runoff. While Republicans led Democrats by three points in mail-in ballots and early voting last week, the margin shrank to just a single point by Sunday.

    "This is a transformational election," said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who supported Higgins. "This is an election where you had an unknown defeat two of the titular Cuban dynasties in local politics. and it wasn't even close."

  2. #2542
    FWIW and a small VA update, I was speaking with a friend who is an active Dem, and he agreed with me that VA-5 is too tall a task for Cockbern. But in addition to VA-10 and 2 being in play, he also said VA-7 could well have an upset where Spanberger is running against Dave Brat - the tea bagger who took down Cantor a few years ago. My reaction was no way. The district has most of the West End suburbs of Richmond (Chesterfield, Henrico and Hanover counties) up to Culpeper and just west of Fredericksburg. The Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs are similar to the 16 exurb districts that turned blue last November - very white, well educated and mostly conservative. Brat will heavily win Culpeper, Orange and Louisa (mostly redneck rural counties). But the real population centers are the Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs, so upon further reflection, my friend, who wasn't drinking the VA-5 koolaid, may just have a point. Add to that Spanberger is former CIA, so she's not exactly a Bernie Sanders type of Dem. And she's making health care her biggest issue, the most important issue in the VA exit polls last November. So just a bit more food for thought.

  3. #2543
    Quote Originally Posted by SwissChaletDeac View Post
    BKF & SwissChaletDeac aren't the only people who have said that the Democrats screwed their chances by leaving Crooked Hillary as the candidate. Ask any Bernie supporter, for one example. As a matter of fact, I think I remember BKF saying early-on that the election was going to be much closer than everyone on the boards thought because millions of Americans despised Hillary Clinton. And, of course, he was ridiculed for saying that by the board geniuses who continued to smugly predict a landslide win for Hillary with an EV total approaching or exceeding 400.

    It seems as though the Democrats keeping Hillary on the ticket was a fatal fuckup would be fairly common knowledge by now for anyone with a $200K WF degree.
    Lolz. Did I touch a nerve, bob? As always, you miss the point. Trump voters like you don't get to absolve yourselves of the blame for Trump. You voted for him, and still eagerly support everything he does. I didn't vote for him, and find him - as do tens of millions of others - to be a loathsome toad of a man. Of course, bob, you're nothing but a troll and always have been, so I take nothing you say seriously, as it's obvious that you don't take anything you say seriously, given how often you do a 180 on your political views. Furthermore, it's easy to ridicule the views of a man who doesn't even have the honesty and guts to admit who he really is on this board, or that he's welching on a bet. What a stand up guy you are, bob!

  4. #2544
    Quote Originally Posted by SwissChaletDeac View Post
    BKF & SwissChaletDeac aren't the only people who have said that the Democrats screwed their chances by leaving Crooked Hillary as the candidate. Ask any Bernie supporter, for one example. As a matter of fact, I think I remember BKF saying early-on that the election was going to be much closer than everyone on the boards thought because millions of Americans despised Hillary Clinton. And, of course, he was ridiculed for saying that by the board geniuses who continued to smugly predict a landslide win for Hillary with an EV total approaching or exceeding 400.

    It seems as though the Democrats keeping Hillary on the ticket was a fatal fuckup would be fairly common knowledge by now for anyone with a $200K WF degree.
    It really is a silly thing to criticize people for using the available data at the time to make predictions about the election outcome, that proved to be incorrect. The data were flawed and the models interpreting those data were flawed and therefore the predictions were erroneous, also, events occurred between July and November that swung the polls (e.g., the Weiner letter). Predictions made on July based on data up to and at that point are subject to more uncertainty than predictions made in October. There are stochasticities in any system that are difficult to predict but the best predictive models incorporate the most and the relevant stochasticities and the results are expressed in terms of probabilities of occurrence not specific outcomes. The primary issue with many pre-election prediction models was that they failed to account for the high levels of dislike for each of the main candidates. We'd never had an election in the era of modern statistics, where both candidates had such high unfavorable or unlikeable ratings and most models did not even have those data as part of the prediction. That means they failed to account for an heretofore unimportant model parameter, which introduced significant unmodeled uncertainty into the predictions. The data indicated that Hillary was ahead in the polls right up to the very end but her unlike-ability, made the election outcome much more volatile to late season stochasticities, like the Weiner letter.

  5. #2545
    Quote Originally Posted by cville deac View Post
    FWIW and a small VA update, I was speaking with a friend who is an active Dem, and he agreed with me that VA-5 is too tall a task for Cockbern. But in addition to VA-10 and 2 being in play, he also said VA-7 could well have an upset where Spanberger is running against Dave Brat - the tea bagger who took down Cantor a few years ago. My reaction was no way. The district has most of the West End suburbs of Richmond (Chesterfield, Henrico and Hanover counties) up to Culpeper and just west of Fredericksburg. The Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs are similar to the 16 exurb districts that turned blue last November - very white, well educated and mostly conservative. Brat will heavily win Culpeper, Orange and Louisa (mostly redneck rural counties). But the real population centers are the Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs, so upon further reflection, my friend, who wasn't drinking the VA-5 koolaid, may just have a point. Add to that Spanberger is former CIA, so she's not exactly a Bernie Sanders type of Dem. And she's making health care her biggest issue, the most important issue in the VA exit polls last November. So just a bit more food for thought.
    I almost posted about VA-7, but stopped myself because beating the guy who unseated Cantor seemed like too full-circle and too much to wish for. I know I've said turnout in primaries doesn't predict turnout in the general, but Spanberger received more votes in the primary than any other candidate in Virginia that was running in a contested race. The only two that were anywhere close were Republican incumbents.

    Definitely one worth watching.


  6. #2546
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdman View Post
    It really is a silly thing to criticize people for using the available data at the time to make predictions about the election outcome, that proved to be incorrect. The data were flawed and the models interpreting those data were flawed and therefore the predictions were erroneous, also, events occurred between July and November that swung the polls (e.g., the Weiner letter). Predictions made on July based on data up to and at that point are subject to more uncertainty than predictions made in October. There are stochasticities in any system that are difficult to predict but the best predictive models incorporate the most and the relevant stochasticities and the results are expressed in terms of probabilities of occurrence not specific outcomes. The primary issue with many pre-election prediction models was that they failed to account for the high levels of dislike for each of the main candidates. We'd never had an election in the era of modern statistics, where both candidates had such high unfavorable or unlikeable ratings and most models did not even have those data as part of the prediction. That means they failed to account for an heretofore unimportant model parameter, which introduced significant unmodeled uncertainty into the predictions. The data indicated that Hillary was ahead in the polls right up to the very end but her unlike-ability, made the election outcome much more volatile to late season stochasticities, like the Weiner letter.
    Well said. Also if you look at the polls from the summer through October, there was an ebb and flow. For a few weeks, Hillary would have a big lead, then Trump would close the gap. Hillary would take a big lead. Then Trump would close the gap. The polls a week before the election showed a downturn for Hillary. The election took place during a period in which Trump closed the gap.

  7. #2547
    Quote Originally Posted by PhDeac View Post
    Well said. Also if you look at the polls from the summer through October, there was an ebb and flow. For a few weeks, Hillary would have a big lead, then Trump would close the gap. Hillary would take a big lead. Then Trump would close the gap. The polls a week before the election showed a downturn for Hillary. The election took place during a period in which Trump closed the gap.
    But, if we'd only listened to the genius and wisdom that is bkf, and chosen some more suitable Dem than Hillary, then people like him wouldn't have been forced, apparently against their will, to vote for Trump (even though they've supported everything he's done in office). That's what bob is so worked up about, and kept ranting about for months and months in 2017 and 2018, until his banning. If only the Millennial idiots on this board had listened and heeded his great insight and brilliance in 2016, then none of Trump's craziness would now be happening. For bob, it's all about his ego, all the time.

  8. #2548
    Avalon, my favorite thing about Brat was when I awoke the morning after he beat Cantor to NPR replaying some of his remarks. He had 2 sentences back to back that I found risible. "We need to get back to constitutional principles." [applause] "We need to get back to our Judeo-Christian values." [applause] He's a college prof - I think econ at Randolph Macon, and he's as tea baggy as they get. My dad was a big fan of his before he moved out of VA (they had lived in the West End).

  9. #2549
    That Donald won the electoral college and presidency doesn’t mean the polling (which tracks the popular vote) was inaccurate. Sure it struggled a lot in some states but the “polling and data sucked in the 2016 election” from a macro level continues to be wrong.

  10. #2550
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    That Donald won the electoral college and presidency doesn’t mean the polling (which tracks the popular vote) was inaccurate. Sure it struggled a lot in some states but the “polling and data sucked in the 2016 election” from a macro level continues to be wrong.
    I just read where the Republican candidate is 35 points ahead in the Massachusetts Governor's race. How can that possibly be?

  11. #2551
    Robert O'Kelley
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwissChaletDeac View Post
    I just read where the Republican candidate is 35 points ahead in the Massachusetts Governor's race. How can that possibly be?
    He's the incumbent and generally approved of across America. Doesn't follow the party line and supports things like maternity leave, emissions reductions, affordable housing. One of the first to pull back National Guard from Trump's border quagmire.

  12. #2552
    Scott "Rufio" Feather

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    Good God, how does anyone get suckered into again engaging with Promise-Keeper Bob on predictions and polling around the 2016 election -- all that wrinkled mound of murder, senility and insurance fraud has been able to talk about for a year and a half.

  13. #2553
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    That Donald won the electoral college and presidency doesn’t mean the polling (which tracks the popular vote) was inaccurate. Sure it struggled a lot in some states but the “polling and data sucked in the 2016 election” from a macro level continues to be wrong.
    I don't think I said “polling and data sucked in the 2016 election”. I asserted that it was probably flawed and that the models used to interpret the polling data were also flawed...primarily in that they did not sufficiently consider the volatility that emerges with high unfavorable ratings for both candidates in a race. So when 46% of the poll respondents say they are going to vote for Hillary and only 42% say they are going to vote for Trump it is, under normal circumstance, reasonable to conclude that Hillary is probably going to win, but that prediction discounts the fact the 56% of people also say they don't really like Hillary. So when bad news comes out just days before the election up to 56% of the 46% that said they would vote for her might be less motivated to vote for her. Obviously that is a major simplification of the math, but the point is I don't think most predictive models in 2016 effectively accounted for the high unfavorable ratings for both candidates and failed to account for the volatility that would create.

  14. #2554
    Quote Originally Posted by SwissChaletDeac View Post
    BKF & SwissChaletDeac aren't the only people who have said that the Democrats screwed their chances by leaving Crooked Hillary as the candidate. Ask any Bernie supporter, for one example. As a matter of fact, I think I remember BKF saying early-on that the election was going to be much closer than everyone on the boards thought because millions of Americans despised Hillary Clinton. And, of course, he was ridiculed for saying that by the board geniuses who continued to smugly predict a landslide win for Hillary with an EV total approaching or exceeding 400.

    It seems as though the Democrats keeping Hillary on the ticket was a fatal fuckup would be fairly common knowledge by now for anyone with a $200K WF degree.
    LOL. If you are going to do this, at least troll all the way and use the screen name "John Miller".


  15. #2555
    https://mashable.com/2018/06/21/mj-h...exas-doors-ad/

    Best political ad of the season. So damn good. MJ Hegar (D), female combat pilot and Purple Heart recipient, running against John Carter (R, Tea Party) in the 31st confessional district of Texas (Round Rock area).

  16. #2556
    Came here to post the same thing:



    Tough district at R +10 and Trump +13, but Cook Political recently moved it from Solid to Likely R.


  17. #2557
    wow, that was a good ad

  18. #2558
    MJ Hegar wrote a book about her life that is being made into a movie. Interview from last year:

    "Shoot Like a Girl": Mary Jennings Hegar on possessing a warrior's heart

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