• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Not out, but I'd certainly call it a Pub lean, and it'd be a pretty big upset if he wins. Assuming the leans hold true, the senate will come down to Dem held MO, ND and FL and Pub held TN, NV and AZ. I'm still betting on the 50/50 result.
 
Well yes, it's absolutely a pub lean. This is Texas! A Beto upset would be remarkable and astonishing.
 
Not out, but I'd certainly call it a Pub lean, and it'd be a pretty big upset if he wins. Assuming the leans hold true, the senate will come down to Dem held MO, ND and FL and Pub held TN, NV and AZ. I'm still betting on the 50/50 result.

I agree with phan above that it's definitely a Lean R because no matter how much Beto's message is resonating with voters and no matter how despicable Cruz is, TX gives state-wide Dem candidates the narrowest of roads to victory. That this is a Lean R and not a Likely R or even untouchable is a testament to both Trump's unpopularity and Beto's terrific work in the state this year.

ETA: I also agree that we are likely to see a 50/50 split, which is really unfortunate. I think that MO, FL, TN, NV will go Democrat and ND, AZ go Republican. I think Florida ends up blue more from how badly the GOP is botching the governor's race than anything. Gillum is getting layup after layup from GOP fuckups and polls are super up on him right now compared to the night of the primaries. That might suppress Republican turnout in a usually energetic voter base. I also like Bredesen to win in TN. CNN's most recent TN Senate poll had him up 5 amongst 723 likely voters and that was taken before the Kavanaugh sexual assault allegations had really come forward.

Might be changing my mind on AZ, looking at new polls right now.
 
Last edited:
What’s Sinema up to? Haven’t heard much.

Beto’s campaign would fare well in just about any other state. But as impressive as it is to go to every county in TX, it still means he probably hasn’t been to some counties in several months. It’s just too big.
 
What’s Sinema up to? Haven’t heard much.

Beto’s campaign would fare well in just about any other state. But as impressive as it is to go to every county in TX, it still means he probably hasn’t been to some counties in several months. It’s just too big.

Sinema seems to be doing well in the polls, surprisingly. I thought it had been a tight race, but she's up 3% in 538's deluxe forecast, the same amount in Fox News' poll (!!) and 7% in CNN's poll that I linked above. Also looks like she and McSally are going to debate in mid-October, so I'd imagine that'll be a fun watch.
 
Here's a very different midterms story coming out of Florida. An old friend of mine was considering running for the FL House as a Democrat against Chris Latvala (FL-67 Clearwater). She reached out Latvala and met him for lunch. Then continued to meet and became friends. She dropped out of the race but remained committed to keeping him accountable.

Chris LatvalaMay 3 at 5:46pm
Recently I learned a lesson in the way politics should be.

A few weeks ago, I found out I was probably going to be getting a very serious opponent. Though I had never met her she reached out and wanted to meet with me. I met her for lunch and what came next surprised us both. Instead of political adversaries trying to weigh each other out, we became fast friends who realized we shared the same views on quite a few issues. Our first lunch meeting lasted over 3 hours.

I told her then that many people I know seek office for the wrong reasons. There are many in both parties who run for office to be someone and not do something. That is not the case with Becca Tieder and I could tell that within minutes of first meeting her. Her heart is in the right place and she sincerely wants to make a change. And with her tenacity she will do just that. She has done that for many years speaking on college campuses and there is no doubt in my mind that she will do it one day as a public servant.

Becca and I have had a few meetings since our first lunch. She has asked me about votes I have taken, both the ones she agrees with me on and those she doesn’t. She believes some of my gun votes are good but not so much when it comes to my votes on education. And she has let me know it! We both want to help kids but we have different beliefs on how to get there. She has talked about her passion with curbing dating violence and sexual assault. She has talked about Erin's Law that seeks to protect children. I told her in our first meeting that that was a bill I would be honored to sponsor next year if I was in the House. That was a commitment I made to her regardless if she ran against me or not.

Today Becca called me and told me she would not be running against me. But she also assured me she would be watching my voting record and wouldn’t hesitate to point out when she believes I am wrong. I wouldn’t expect anything else from Becca Tieder. The Becca Tieder I have gotten to know and call my friend is a tough, tenacious, advocate for those causes she holds dear.

Here is Becca's response:

Becca Tieder shared a post:

This is not sexy or salacious. It is a political tale without scandal or hatred. But you know I don’t do things status quo. Y’all knew I was planning to run in #FLHD67 against Chris Latvala. I thought (and he knows this) that he was wrong on too many issues, an empty suit who was too far right for the good of the district. He is not all these things (a little too right and wrong on education but I am working on it). He is a kind, caring, funny-never saw that coming-person who loves his job and has a passion for service. I sought out an adversary and found an ally. Knowing this and with other political options out there for consideration I decided to work with him not against him. Below are Christopher’s words. But the major takeaway is regardless of party- get to know your leadership, you never know what you might find. It might just be a friend. It might help you advance something you believe in like Erin's Law. Imagine what could happen if more people treated one another with respect and compromise in politics? Our best interests- not special interests might be served.

Chris Latvala is one of only two FL House Republicans who did not sign a letter backing Kavanaugh.
https://www.tampabay.com/florida-po...udge-kavanaugh-two-from-tampa-bay-didnt-sign/

Rep. Chris Latvala, R-Clearwater, issued a statement to the Times/Herald that said: "While I believe Judge Kavanaugh should be confirmed and the timing of this accusation is suspect, I think it's important to gather all the facts. That said, my focus as an elected state representative remains on working in a bipartisan fashion to protect our environment, improve our education system, address the opioid crisis and keep our taxes low."
Latvala's father, former Sen. Jack Latvala, R-Clearwater, resigned last November amid charges that he sexually harassed a Senate staff member. A special master found probable cause that harassment occurred but a Florida prosecutor declined to file public corruption charges based on a separate complaint.

The other was my rep. He was too lazy.

Rep. Shawn Harrison, R-Tampa, who faces a strong challenge from Democrat Fentrice Driskell in a competitive district, said it was an oversight that he didn't sign and it should not be interpreted as a sign that he opposes Kavanaugh's confirmation.
"I just never got to it and no one (in the House) ever followed up on it," Harrison told the Times/Herald. "Let it play out and let's see what happens on Monday."
 
 
Good example of politics shifting to the left.
 
Cook report moves Beto/Cruz race to toss up.

This week, for the first time ever, a major pollster found O’Rourke leading Cruz, while another depicted the race as a statistical tie. Those surveys remain outliers — judging by the polls alone, Cruz still boasts a significant (if not quite comfortable) average lead of about 4.5 percent. But the Cook Political Report does not base its forecasts primarily on public polls. Rather, the reputable election prognosticator rates races on the basis of its conversations with strategists in both parties, as well as campaigns’ internal polling. And this week, such conversations led Cook to revise its expectations for the Cruz-O’Rourke contest: Now, the forecaster no longer considers the race “lean Republican,” but rather, a “toss-up.”


Cook staffer Jennifer E. Duffy offers this more detailed analysis:

GOP U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz isn’t terribly popular, and while that might not necessarily be a problem is a red state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and his message have generated a great deal of enthusiasm among Democrats and independents, as well as Democratic donors across the country who have filled his campaign war chest. At this point, he has outraised Cruz and outspent him on television. A Toss Up rating makes both parties nervous: Republicans for obvious reasons and Democrats because it creates an expectation that they will start spending money on the race … O’Rourke has earned this rating, but getting the last couple of points to overtake Cruz and win the seat will be difficult though not utterly impossible.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...?utm_source=fb&utm_campaign=nym&utm_medium=s1
 
I saw that and thought “does Kris Kobach have any siblings?”
 
In the Kansas 3rd district, Kevin Yoder has not had a public forum in Wyandotte County in at least 3 years, maybe not ever. Wyandotte County represents 25% of his district. He held an event today at the Children's Mercy Park (Sporting KC) and it was a $50 ticket event. He sucks so much.
 
Yes, I will definitely be voting for Kelly in governor's race. I'm doing as much anti-kobach actions as I can.
 
Back
Top