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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

 
'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Saw this anti-Will Hurd ad while watching the Spurs local broadcast.

I appreciate a good play on words.

https://youtu.be/kH0etZxEkns
 
Mass Georgia spam message today

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News like this causes one to wonder just how reliable many of these state polls are that show the Dems edge in House races having slipped somewhat, and the Dems with virtually no chance of winning the Senate. Most of those state polls were done using a model that anticipates the electorate looking much like it did in 2014 and 2010. The higher Dem turnout goes, the less accurate those polls probably are. Plus, I've noticed that polls for Senate, House, and Governor's races don't seem to be done as frequently as the ones for presidential contests. Some of the "recent" polls I've seen for the Tennessee, Indiana, and Missouri Senate races are weeks old at this point.
 
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I don't understand the lifetime Democrat farmer who voted for Trump, is being hurt by Trump's tariffs, but is willing to make the sacrifice because his support for Trump is growing.
 
I don't understand the lifetime Democrat farmer who voted for Trump, is being hurt by Trump's tariffs, but is willing to make the sacrifice because his support for Trump is growing.

Gotta keep the gheys in check and make sure those transgender weirdos stay out of little girl's public restrooms. Also, blacks and Mexicans are taking over the country and white people are oppressed victims now, so gotta vote for the white man's party, the GOP. And, Fox News tells me those meanie librul snobs with their fancy college degrees keep looking down their noses at people like me, so opposing everything they want and voting in Republicans will piss them off! Even though I'm losing money because of Trump's tariffs, and may lose my farm, at least I can laugh at those snotty bastards when they lose another election!
 
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There is really no pattern in these data from which to draw useful inference. All interest is up from the low to mid 50% in 2010 and 2014 65% so showing that women went form low to mid 50% to 67% doesn't really show me much about a change in the electorate. Women 18-34 show a 20% increase as compared to the over all 12.5% increase, but the impact of that increase is highly dependent on what percent of the population that age group makes up compared to the older white men. If 18-34 year old women make 12% of the population and 50+ men make up 24% of the population, a 20% increase in young women voters could be swamped by a 12% increase in older men. To be useful, these numbers need more context is what I'm saying.
 
News like this causes one to wonder just how reliable many of these state polls are that show the Dems edge in House races having slipped somewhat, and the Dems with virtually no chance of winning the Senate. Most of those state polls were done using a model that anticipates the electorate looking much like it did in 2014 and 2010. The higher Dem turnout goes, the less accurate those polls probably are. Plus, I've noticed that polls for Senate, House, and Governor's races don't seem to be done as frequently as the ones for presidential contests. Some of the "recent" polls I've seen for the Tennessee, Indiana, and Missouri Senate races are weeks old at this point.

I think IF there are discrepancies in the polls, it is more likely to be an underrepresentation of younger voters in those polls due to the fact that nearly no millennial in America has a landline.
 
Also with cell phones I’m curious how many younger people are like me, have the same number, meaning same area code from high school and live out of state. All numbers with my home area code just go straight to the decline call
 
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