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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Two races to note in Minnesota, both MN-1 and MN-8 are current Dem seats that are open in 2018 (the 1st because Tim Walz is running for governor, the 8th because Rick Nolan ran for lt. governor.) Both went to Trump by 15 pts.

In MN-1 the Dems nominated a vet and teacher that served in the Obama administration. Rs nominated the guy that lost to Tim Walz twice, including in 2016 when the district picked Trump by a double digit margin.

The Republican endorsed by Trump won in MN-8. Dems nominated the former chief of staff of the current rep.

House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column

Rating Changes:
CA-45: Walters | Lean R to Toss Up ←
FL-26: Curbelo | Toss Up to Lean R →
NJ-03: MacArthur | Lean R to Toss Up ←
NC-09: OPEN (Pittenger) | Lean R to Toss Up ←
PA-10: Perry | Likely R to Lean R ←
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That’s horrible. How could so many people make such bad mistakes?
 
PhDeac said:
That’s horrible. How could so many people make such bad mistakes?
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Yeah, I didn't see that any of those were Fox News stations. At least that would be understandable. I wonder if any of them are owned by the notorious Sinclair group. At any rate, the "liberal mainstream media" in Wisconsin really seems to have blown it on this one.
 
“Then, the night before the primary election, WDJT-TV (Channel 58)...”

That name is fortunate or unfortunate depending on your politics.
 
New FiveThirtyEight Forecast for the House:

nnHDEe7.png
 
It's pretty nuts that a 58 seat gain is the edge of normal standard deviation and gaining 74 seats is just two standard deviations away. Both of those aren't terribly likely and I think the final seat gain settles somewhere between 35-45 seats, but the fact that those numbers are even on the table is incredibly encouraging.
 
Will Hurd is getting a little salty about getting out-raised

Will Hurd way off on foe getting more money from Massachusetts residents than from Texans

tom-pantsonfire.gif


He's claiming Gina Ortiz Jones is getting most of her donations from MA because Act Blue, the entity that manages her online donations, is based on MA.

Top Republicans Hit Up QAnon Conspiracy Nuts for Cash

Such outlandish content makes Big League Politics an odd choice for mainstream Republican candidates and groups to use for political advertising. Nunes campaign fundraising emails have shown up on the BLP list at least eight times since June. Others advertising on the list include the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). At least one of Cruz’s emails, a fundraising appeal sent June 20, did not contain a legally required “paid for by” disclaimer.
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I guess that’s what will happen to the roaches who didn’t resign.
 
Only after the primary!

Never Mind Congress. These Democrats Want to Win State Legislatures

Flippable is basically augmenting the work of the DLCC, but with more of a startup mentality. It uses algorithms to determine which races to target, invests in candidates before their primary and then help them with digital advertising and social media. Their pitch is that it will do the work to find the races that are the best investment, to help donors get the most bang for their buck: state legislative races cost roughly $100,000-$150,000, while federal House and Senate races usually cost millions.
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Flippable is also partnering with groups like Run For Something to give more support to downballot candidates. Run For Something focuses on recruiting and training young exciting candidates, while Flippable helps fund them. So far they’ve co-endorsed 10 candidates, including Muth and O’Mara, and planning on collaborating more.

“We know that winning the House in 2018 is a temporary fix to what becomes a permanent problem if we don’t win back state legislatures,” says Amanda Litman, co-founder of Run for Something. “A little bit of effort can make a big impact.”
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GOP’s midterm peril: What if they win on killing Obamacare?

On Thursday, Democrats announced two ads aimed at GOP candidates in North Dakota and Missouri attacking them as enemies of popular health care protections given their voting records and support for the lawsuit. Both Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) say they support protecting pre-existing conditions, though Hawley is a party to the lawsuit and Cramer supports it, saying: “Who doesn’t want the constitutionality of something reviewed?”
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Opposing the ACA but supporting its popular provisions while supporting a lawsuit that would end the popular provisions is a hell of a tightrope to walk.

Though I guess similar to the "repeal and replace" that was really:

c_lxggbwsaa_tet.jpg
 
More from the "The right can't distinguish among 'leftists' " department.

Republican Senate nominee posts photo of Tim Kaine greeting Stalin
Under the hashtag #AntifaTimKaine, Corey Stewart described Kaine meeting Stalin to discuss “economic policy” in 1944. Kaine, who was the Democratic vice-presidential nominee in 2016, was born in 1958.

The tweet seemed to be an attempt to link Kaine with protesters who have repeatedly clashed with white supremacists in cities across the US. Stewart has previously dwelled on the arrest of Kaine’s son after an anti-Trump protest in 2017.
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Every YouTube I play has a negative ad against Harley Rouda, who is running against Dana Rorabacher...that sucks...
 
 
Trump’s Base Has Become Too Delusional for the GOP’s Own Good


But the president’s narcissism compels him to undermine this gambit. To acknowledge that Democrats are poised for a landslide would be to acknowledge that the American people do not overwhelmingly approve of his job performance. Therefore, Trump has assured his voters that all those reports about a “blue wave” are fake news, and that Republicans are certain to keep Congress in November. Fox News has dutifully echoed this message, and the GOP base has fully absorbed it. As Axios’s Jonathan Swan reports:

The president’s contempt for mainstream polling and the media may come back to haunt him in November. Several top Republican operatives working on the midterm elections told me Trump’s fanciful “red wave” predictions could depress Republican turnout and, ironically, serve to make any blue wave even bigger.

What we’re hearing: One of those strategists told me he’s detecting something interesting — and concerning — from focus groups of Trump voters. “You have Trump-MAGA loyalists, and their friends on Fox, who have reached a point of not believing polls and media people telling them things are going wrong, that I believe is actually causing the Republicans problems,” the strategist told me, granted anonymity in order to be candid.

“We’ve seen it in focus groups, with Republican base voters, where you’ll come up with a hypothetical that the Democrats win, and people are like, ‘That’s not going to happen, that’s stupid.’ … They’re like, ‘Oh, to hell with this crap, we were told Trump wasn’t going to win. It’s bullshit.’”

… “They watch Hannity… and hear that a red wave is coming to save the House. They really believe it’s going to be 2016 all over again.”

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...?utm_campaign=nym&utm_source=fb&utm_medium=s1
 
Makes sense. This is a very well educated cohort of women and they rightfully see men like Trump and his ilk standing in the way of their family planning and professional success.
 
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