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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

My understanding, based on reading articles about this race, is that O'Rourke's entire campaign has been based on his belief that he can drive up voter turnout among Democratic-leaning groups. If he can't, then his campaign was toast all along, If he's right, and turnout does surge, it will almost certainly favor him, and will give him his chance to win. If the Democrats can't drive up voter turnout by a substantial margin, then O'Rourke probably never had a chance to start with.

He actually released his plan publicly, and you're right, it involves mobilizing a lot of people who don't normally vote and it will require an intense amount of organizing. I don't doubt he'll get a lot of volunteer energy, with the added bonus that, even if he doesn't win, he could have a big impact down ballot.
 
Pelosi should have decided to announce she wouldn't be Speaker again months ago. It would have helped Dems get elected. She wouldn't have been as much of a target.

It's time for a new generation to take power.

They'd run the same ads either way.
 
Watch the video in this tweet to see what Dave Brat considers "shouting him down."


How dare she! So uncivil and rude.

Just wrote a bunch of postcards last night to voters in the VA-7 (which incidentally is where I grew up). Would love for her to get that guy out of office.
 
They'd run the same ads either way.

Yep. TheReff is still writing Letters to the Editor implying that a more thorough investigation of the Chappaquiddick incident is warranted. My 95-year old grandfather isn't sure about The New Deal.
 
They'd run the same ads either way.

But it would give Dem challengers the ability to have a campaign of "A New Day" or "Changing Congress". Those are winning concepts as more and more people are non-affiliated.
 
How dare she! So uncivil and rude.

Just wrote a bunch of postcards last night to voters in the VA-7 (which incidentally is where I grew up). Would love for her to get that guy out of office.

I've found in the past few weeks that writing a few postcards a night has been good for my sanity.
 
How dare she! So uncivil and rude.

Just wrote a bunch of postcards last night to voters in the VA-7 (which incidentally is where I grew up). Would love for her to get that guy out of office.

Brat: "Here’s Spanberger caught on tape at a Dave Brat town hall shouting him down and calling for tax increases."

Spanberger: "Yes" "No" *nodding*
 
Democrat party would be annihilated if you could corral the illegal vote and the Taylor Swift children’s special.

So many fucking idiots allowed to vote

What’s a Real Tax Paying Citizen to do?
I say only white land owners be allowed to vote.
 
Interesting. How credible is the CNN poll?

This one had Clinton ahead by double digits only a couple of weeks prior to election day:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

You seem lack some understanding of temporal dynamics on polling data and results. This poll from CNN came out 5 days before Comey sent his letter to Congress. The state of the system changed after that letter and gap between the candidates closed dramatically. Admittedly this CNN poll that you linked probably over estimated Hillary’s lead at that time of the poll (all polls have some sampling error) but Hillary probably would have won the election if it was held on any day prior to the release of that Comey letter about the Weiner emails.
 
You seem lack some understanding of temporal dynamics on polling data and results. This poll from CNN came out 5 days before Comey sent his letter to Congress. The state of the system changed after that letter and gap between the candidates closed dramatically. Admittedly this CNN poll that you linked probably over estimated Hillary’s lead at that time of the poll (all polls have some sampling error) but Hillary probably would have won the election if it was held on any day prior to the release of that Comey letter about the Weiner emails.

Are you saying that a poll measures the present and not the future? Crazy.
 
Are you saying that a poll measures the present and not the future? Crazy.

Yes, I know it is hard to understand for some. I’m also saying that a pool is only useful as a predictive tool if the system dynamics stay the same between the data collection and the event you are predicting.
 
Voting rights become a flashpoint in Georgia governor’s race

But through a process that Kemp calls voter roll maintenance and his opponents call voter roll purges, Kemp’s office has cancelled over 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012. Nearly 670,000 registrations were cancelled in 2017 alone.

According to records obtained from Kemp’s office through a public records request, Appling-Nunez’s application —like many of the 53,000 registrations on hold with Kemp’s office — was flagged because it ran afoul of the state’s “exact match” verification process.

Under the policy, information on voter applications must precisely match information on file with the Georgia Department of Driver Services or the Social Security Administration. Election officials can place non-matching applications on hold.

An application could be held because of an entry error or a dropped hyphen in a last name, for example.

Appling-Nunez says she never saw any notice from Kemp’s office indicating a problem with her application.

An analysis of the records obtained by The Associated Press reveals racial disparity in the process. Georgia’s population is approximately 32 percent black, according to the U.S. Census, but the list of voter registrations on hold with Kemp’s office is nearly 70 percent black.
 
Sadly none of this matters. SCOTUS isn't going to protect voting rights.
 
Sadly none of this matters. SCOTUS isn't going to protect voting rights.

Yep. One of the very reasons Kavanaugh was put on the SC was to make sure that GOP state-level efforts to restrict voting rights couldn't be overturned in the courts. Even if lower courts overturn them, there's little doubt that the Supremes will overturn the lower court's rulings now that they have a 5-4 majority. I expect the NC gerrymandering ruling to be thrown out eventually by the SC.
 
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