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Official 2018 NBA Offseason Thread: the preseason cometh

Let's look at the #4 picks going back to 2010:

16 - Dragen Bender
15 - Porzingis
14 - Aaron Gorden
13 - Cody Zeller
12 - Waiters
11 - Tristan Thompson
10 - Wes Johnson

Porzingis is the only guy that is clearly better than DJ. Any other you would trade straight up for DJ in a second, regardless of age; maybe not Zeller when factoring both age and contract, but that is certainly debatable. I don't know how you can LOL at that trade when you have a >50% chance of that pick turning out to be a trash "asset". Not only does adding DJ improve the team immediately, but makes it a more attractive destination for proven FAs to help long term.

People will always be willing to trade reality for hope.
 
Ouch. I wonder how that compares to other GMs. Hard to believe any GM with that many picks hasn't struck gold on one.

Pierce and Antoine Walker are the only Celtics draft picks to make the All-Star game as Celtics since Bird and Reggie Lewis did in 92.
 
Let's look at the #4 picks going back to 2010:

16 - Dragen Bender
15 - Porzingis
14 - Aaron Gorden
13 - Cody Zeller
12 - Waiters
11 - Tristan Thompson
10 - Wes Johnson

Porzingis is the only guy that is clearly better than DJ. Any other you would trade straight up for DJ in a second, regardless of age; maybe not Zeller when factoring both age and contract, but that is certainly debatable. I don't know how you can LOL at that trade when you have a >50% chance of that pick turning out to be a trash "asset". Not only does adding DJ improve the team immediately, but makes it a more attractive destination for proven FAs to help long term.
I'd rather have a chance of landing a Porzingis, no matter if it's a small chance, than have a declining player who isn't gonna take you anywhere during the duration of his contract. You people keep forgetting Durant ruined the league.
 
Everyone get you food and water. Then go to your bunkers. 2&2 and I agree about something.

Also add to this, that there are no bigs who deserve to be taken anywhere near #4. This is the #1 need for PHX. They don't need a guard and Warren is becoming a very good SF.
Say Embiid suffered a career-ending injury last year. So you would've been cool with trading the #3 pick for 2 years of DeAndre Jordan?
 
For the Clippers, I would imagine it is about shedding salary and trying to re-make the team in some way, either with Paul/Griffin or without. Its a fine move for Phoenix, as they already have a shitpile of young guys and aren't winning any thing in the next couple years anyway.
 
Ainge has been pretty good at finding valuable role players in the bottom half of the 1st round. He's been terrible at finding top end talent in the few chances he's had.
 
Every GM has a chance to find top end talent in the draft.
 
I'd rather have a chance of landing a Porzingis, no matter if it's a small chance, than have a declining player who isn't gonna take you anywhere during the duration of his contract. You people keep forgetting Durant ruined the league.

You already have a small chance wherever your draft pick is, or even via undrafted. And even if you get a Porzingis, there is still no guaranty that he'll take you anywhere, look at Anthony Davis. Phoenix has some legit players now, adding a legit A-level player to work with them makes more sense at this stage than just blind hope of striking gold.
 
Ainge has been pretty good at finding valuable role players in the bottom half of the 1st round. He's been terrible at finding top end talent in the few chances he's had.
Eh he's had a few recent-ish picks that you could argue are good value but otherwise he sucks butt at drafting
 
You already have a small chance wherever your draft pick is, or even via undrafted. And even if you get a Porzingis, there is still no guaranty that he'll take you anywhere, look at Anthony Davis. Phoenix has some legit players now, adding a legit A-level player to work with them makes more sense at this stage than just blind hope of striking gold.

That's another question. Are we past the Duncan/Shaq era in which the best player on a team can be a post player? As amazing as AD is and Porzingus and Embiid could be, it's hard to imagine them winning a championship as the #1 player.
 
Whoa, Jefferson's never been an All-Star, apparently. He's made an All-NBA team, though. Rondo's been an All-Star.
 
I'm not sure what counts and what doesn't, but Rondo was actually drafted by the Suns.

Yep. I'm guessing that disqualifies him from the list.

Huh? It was a draft day trade. That's some bullshit criteria. Just like I wouldn't give the Celts "credit" for drafting Jeff Green in '07; they weren't actually the ones choosing the pick.
 
I decided to actually look back at Ainge's draft day record, because hey this has become a point of discussion a few times here, and honestly, I don't really know if he's a good drafter on the whole or not. Seemed like an interesting thing to research.

(and I know this is me taking buckets' bait, but like I said, maybe he's right! I honestly haven't really looked at this in much detail before now.)

Here's every draft pick that Ainge has made since he took over in 2003. In terms of criteria, these are players who ended their draft days as Celtics; players aren't included if the C's traded them immediately (as they were presumably selecting players for other teams), and they are included if they were immediately traded to the C's.

2003:
Pick 13: Marcus Banks, PG
Pick 27: Kendrick Perkins, C
Pick 56: Brandon Hunter, PF

2004:
Pick 15: Al Jefferson, PF/C
Pick 24: Delonte West, PG
Pick 25: Tony Allen, SG
Pick 40: Justin Reed, SF

2005:
Pick 18: Gerald Green, G/F
Pick 50: Ryan Gomes, F
Pick 53: Orien Greene, G

2006:
Pick 21: Rajon Rondo, PG
Pick 49: Leon Powe, F

2007:
Pick 32: Gabe Pruitt, PG
Pick 35: Glen Davis, PF

2008:
Pick 30: J.R. Giddens, SG
Pick 47: Bill Walker, SG
Pick 60: Semih Erden, C

2009:
Pick 58: Lester Hudson, PG

2010:
Pick 19: Avery Bradley, SG
Pick 52: Luke Harangody, PF

2011:
Pick 27: JaJuan Johnson, PF
Pick 55: E'Twaun Moore, SG

2012:
Pick 21: Jared Sullinger, PF
Pick 22: Fab Melo, C
Pick 51: Kris Joseph, SF

2013:
Pick 13: Kelly Olynyk, C
Pick 53: Colton Iverson, C

2014:
Pick 6: Marcus Smart, PG
Pick 17: James Young, SG/SF

2015:
Pick 16: Terry Rozier, PG
Pick 28: R.J. Hunter, SG
Pick 33: Jordan Mickey, PF
Pick 45: Marcus Thornton, PG

2016:
Pick 3: Jaylen Brown, SF
Pick 16: Guerschon Yabusele, PF
Pick 23: Ante Zizic, C
Pick 45: Demetrius Jackson, PG
Pick 51: Ben Bentil, PF
Pick 58: Abdel Nader, SF

I thought I'd put those picks into 6 buckets (PUN INTENDED): 1.) 1st round busts, 2.) 1st round exceeded expectations, 3.) 1st round met expectations, 4.) 2nd round exceeded expectations, 5.) 2nd round non-factors, and 6.) too early to judge. I'm grading the picks relative to their drafts; Olynyk is a good example of this. He'd be a bust as a 13th pick in most years, but in that horrible 2013 draft, I think he's basically met expectations.

1st Round Busts:
2003 Pick 13: Marcus Banks, PG
2005 Pick 18: Gerald Green, G/F
2008 Pick 30: J.R. Giddens, SG
2011 Pick 27: JaJuan Johnson, PF
2012 Pick 22: Fab Melo, C
2014 Pick 17: James Young, SG/SF
2015 Pick 28: R.J. Hunter, SG

1st Round Exceeded Expectations:
2003 Pick 27: Kendrick Perkins, C
2004 Pick 15: Al Jefferson, PF/C
2004 Pick 25: Tony Allen, SG
2006 Pick 21: Rajon Rondo, PG
2010 Pick 19: Avery Bradley, SG
2012 Pick 21: Jared Sullinger, PF

1st Round Met Expectations:
2003 Pick 24: Delonte West, PG
2013 Pick 13: Kelly Olynyk, C
2014 Pick 6: Marcus Smart, PG

2nd Round Exceeded Expectations:
2005 Pick 50: Ryan Gomes, F
2007 Pick 35: Glen Davis, PF
2011 Pick 55: E'Twaun Moore, SG

2nd Round Non-Factors:
2003 Pick 56: Brandon Hunter, PF
2004 Pick 40: Justin Reed, SF
2005 Pick 53: Orien Greene, G
2006 Pick 49: Leon Powe, F
2007 Pick 32: Gabe Pruitt, PG
2008 Pick 47: Bill Walker, SG
2008 Pick 60: Semih Erden, C
2009 Pick 58: Lester Hudson, PG
2010 Pick 52: Luke Harangody, PF
2012 Pick 51: Kris Joseph, SF
2013 Pick 53: Colton Iverson, C
2015 Pick 45: Marcus Thornton, PG
2016 Pick 51: Ben Bentil, PF

Too Early to Categorize:
2015 Pick 16: Terry Rozier, PG
2015 Pick 33: Jordan Mickey, PF
2016 Pick 3: Jaylen Brown, SF
2016 Pick 16: Guerschon Yabusele, PF
2016 Pick 23: Ante Zizic, C
2016 Pick 45: Demetrius Jackson, PG
2016 Pick 58: Abdel Nader, SF

A few thoughts... I only really had trouble with Gerald Green, Delonte West, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier:
-I think it could be argued that Green met expectations, but he had more of a late career surge, and that really only happened after leaving the team, so I kept him in the "bust" category.
-West could probably fit in "exceeded expectations", but 2004 had a sneaky deep late 1st/early 2nd round, and West's career was way shorter than I remembered, so I think it's probably fairer to be conservative with him.
-You could mayyyyybe argue that Smart is a bust, or probably more likely that it's too early to judge him, but I'm a Smart fanboy, and I think he was fine value for that spot. (I'd rather have him than Aaron Gordon, who went two spots earlier, or Dante Exum, who went one spot earlier, or Julius Randle, who went one spot later. So.)
-Yeah, I'm leaving Rozier in too early to judge. I think he's good value for a role player at #16. Some people hate him. Whatever; he plays good D and he won't kill you in extended stretches. I think the only players drafted after him in the 1st that year that I'd prefer are Portis and mayyyyybe Larry Nance Jr.? Maybe?

Anyway, I don't think this is particularly flattering for Ainge (that's a long list of busts, yeah), but it's worth considering he's never really had a "can't miss" draft slot (the closest he got was last year, and the jury's obviously still out on Brown). I think he's done pretty well (or at least league-average?) relative to draft position. I still have big hopes for the 2016 draft, where it looks like Ainge finally adapted and decided to swing for the fences, as far as foreign picks are concerned. Three usable 2nd round picks in 15 years is bad.

Lemme know if you agree/disagree with my categorizations. I was trying to be pretty conservative here, and I think it came out pretty fair.

tl;dr- haha rsf took buckets' bait, what a nerd
 
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