Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
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Here's the breakdown of the Pack (#68), which sadly have passed WF (#83) in the KP CB Ratings:
2017-8 Schedule: 12-6 (2-3). Top 100 wins (actually top 25 wins!) #24 Arizona by 6; #4 Duke by 11; #15 Clemson. Top 100 losses: #13 Tennessee by 11, #15 Clemson (yes, State has played Clemson twice already, by 16), #25 ND by 30, #3 UVA by 17. State has severe home/road splits. The Pack is 9-1 at home with wins over ranked Duke and Clemson (kudos to Home Games In Harms Way as the Wes "the Wizard" Miller led UNCG to a 5 point win at State). In contrast, State is 0-3 on the road with 3 blowout losses. The bad news for the Deacs is that this game is at State.
Offense: State is a solid offensive team (#46). They score points (90+ against Duke, Arizona; scored 100+ 3 times), and they try to push tempo (15.7 second average offensive possession #43). Their strength on offense is scoring in transition and taking the ball to the basket. 55% of their offense comes on 2 point shots (#47), and only 25% of their offense comes from 3s (#319). The Pack shoots 33% from 3 (#250). State hits the offensive boards hard (#12 in offensive rebounding percentage). They also protect the ball reasonably well on offense (#51 in TO%).
Defense: State is not as strong on defense (#131). State plays mostly man, and they pressure the ball forcing TOs on 22% of their defensive possessions (#31). Other than pressuring the ball, State is weak on D. They are particularly bad at protecting the defensive glass (#292), and their interior D is soft (#206 in defending the 2 point shot). State also is foul prone (#203 in FTA per FGA); WF is also foul prone; so, this game could take a while.
Roster: State is not a big team. They start: 6-0 (Beverly), 6-3 (Allerik Freeman), 6-6 (Dorn), 6-8 (Abu), 7-0 (Yurtseven). State plays with an 8 man rotation; their 3 primary bench players are two guards Markell Johnson (6-1) and Lavar Batts (6-2) and one big man (Lennard Freeman 6-8). Allerick Freeman is a Baylor transfer, and he struggled to score from the field shooting 29% from 3 and 36% from 2; but, he does get to the line a lot. Yurtseven has improved from last year. After struggling in all aspects as a frosh (JC abused him in particular), Yurtseven is shooting 60%+ from the field, including 65% from 3; he had the game of his life in the win over Clemson scoring 29 points and hitting 5 of 6 from 3. Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all make more than 60% of their 2 point shots.
Bottom Line: KP projects an 82-78 State win. Other than the hiccup against UNC-G, State has been great at home. Given that WF swept the Pack last year, and that State is coming off a decisive loss at UVA, State will be apt to bring their A game. Really important that WF does not give up easy baskets on TOs (WF is actually #2 in the conference in best offensive TO% in ACC games), that WF defends the lane (hope WF goes big) and doesn't give up easy baskets. When State is forced to play half court basketball (against UVA, ND and @Clemson), they have struggled). Would help if Moore can stay out of foul trouble and win the matchup with Yurtseven. WF's next 3 games are daunting (UVA, Duke, @ L'ville -- all are projected as double digit losses); so, a loss makes likely a stumbling 1-8 conference start. Yikes.
2017-8 Schedule: 12-6 (2-3). Top 100 wins (actually top 25 wins!) #24 Arizona by 6; #4 Duke by 11; #15 Clemson. Top 100 losses: #13 Tennessee by 11, #15 Clemson (yes, State has played Clemson twice already, by 16), #25 ND by 30, #3 UVA by 17. State has severe home/road splits. The Pack is 9-1 at home with wins over ranked Duke and Clemson (kudos to Home Games In Harms Way as the Wes "the Wizard" Miller led UNCG to a 5 point win at State). In contrast, State is 0-3 on the road with 3 blowout losses. The bad news for the Deacs is that this game is at State.
Offense: State is a solid offensive team (#46). They score points (90+ against Duke, Arizona; scored 100+ 3 times), and they try to push tempo (15.7 second average offensive possession #43). Their strength on offense is scoring in transition and taking the ball to the basket. 55% of their offense comes on 2 point shots (#47), and only 25% of their offense comes from 3s (#319). The Pack shoots 33% from 3 (#250). State hits the offensive boards hard (#12 in offensive rebounding percentage). They also protect the ball reasonably well on offense (#51 in TO%).
Defense: State is not as strong on defense (#131). State plays mostly man, and they pressure the ball forcing TOs on 22% of their defensive possessions (#31). Other than pressuring the ball, State is weak on D. They are particularly bad at protecting the defensive glass (#292), and their interior D is soft (#206 in defending the 2 point shot). State also is foul prone (#203 in FTA per FGA); WF is also foul prone; so, this game could take a while.
Roster: State is not a big team. They start: 6-0 (Beverly), 6-3 (Allerik Freeman), 6-6 (Dorn), 6-8 (Abu), 7-0 (Yurtseven). State plays with an 8 man rotation; their 3 primary bench players are two guards Markell Johnson (6-1) and Lavar Batts (6-2) and one big man (Lennard Freeman 6-8). Allerick Freeman is a Baylor transfer, and he struggled to score from the field shooting 29% from 3 and 36% from 2; but, he does get to the line a lot. Yurtseven has improved from last year. After struggling in all aspects as a frosh (JC abused him in particular), Yurtseven is shooting 60%+ from the field, including 65% from 3; he had the game of his life in the win over Clemson scoring 29 points and hitting 5 of 6 from 3. Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all make more than 60% of their 2 point shots.
Bottom Line: KP projects an 82-78 State win. Other than the hiccup against UNC-G, State has been great at home. Given that WF swept the Pack last year, and that State is coming off a decisive loss at UVA, State will be apt to bring their A game. Really important that WF does not give up easy baskets on TOs (WF is actually #2 in the conference in best offensive TO% in ACC games), that WF defends the lane (hope WF goes big) and doesn't give up easy baskets. When State is forced to play half court basketball (against UVA, ND and @Clemson), they have struggled). Would help if Moore can stay out of foul trouble and win the matchup with Yurtseven. WF's next 3 games are daunting (UVA, Duke, @ L'ville -- all are projected as double digit losses); so, a loss makes likely a stumbling 1-8 conference start. Yikes.
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