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KP Report on the NC State Wolfpack - 4 pm Saturday ACC Network ESPN 3

Pilchard

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2017-8 Schedule: The Pack are 17-9 (7-6). Top 100 wins: #21 Arizona by 6; #4 Duke by 11; #15 Clemson by 1 , #84 WF by 9, #10 UNC in OT, #40 ND by 18 and #48 Cuse by 4. Top 100 losses: #12 Tennessee by 11, #15 Clemson by 16, #25 ND by 30, #1 UVA by 17, #38 Miami by 5, #42 VT by 10, #10 UNC by 7. The Pack is 11-3 at home with wins over ranked Duke and Clemson (kudos to Home Games In Harms Way as the Wes "the Wizard" Miller led UNCG to a 5 point win at State). State is 3-4 on the road.

Offense: State's strength is on offense (#8 in the ACC: WF is #13). They score points (90+ against Duke, Arizona; scored 100+ 3 times; 95 and 89 in two games against UNC), and they try to push tempo -- #3 in the conference. Their strength on offense is scoring in transition and taking the ball to the basket. 54% of their offense comes on 2 point shots (#2 in the ACC), and only 30% of their offense comes from 3s (#12 in the ACC). The Pack shoots 34% from 3 in conference games (#11 among ACC teams).

Defense: State is weak on defense (#13 in the ACC; WF is #11). State plays mostly man, and they pressure the ball forcing TOs on 19% of their defensive possessions (#4 in conference). Other than pressuring the ball, State is a bad defensive team. They are particularly bad at protecting the paint (#15 DFL in the ACC in 2 PT% defense 58% -- yikes; also DFL in the ACC in effective FG% defense). State also is foul prone (#12 in conference FTA per FGA); WF is also foul prone; so, this game could take a while.

Roster: State is small. They start: 6-0 (Braxton Beverly), 6-1 (Markell Johnson), 6-3 (Allerik Freeman), 6-6 (Torin Dorn), 7-0 (Yurtseven). State plays with an 8 or 9 man rotation; their primary bench players is guards Sam Hunt (6-2 - hit 4 threes at Cuse) and Lavar Batts (6-2) and big men, Lennard Freeman 6-8 and Abu (6-8 - only played 5 minutes at Cuse). Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all make 60% of their 2 point shots. Yurtseven can also hit the 3 (48%).

Bottom Line: KP projects an 81-80 WF win. The Pack are coming off a nice road win at Cuse, and have played themselves on to the NCAA tourney bubble; hard to believe, but this may be the Pack's toughest remaining game (they finish with BC and FSU at home; GT away and then L'ville at home). Really important that WF does not give up easy baskets on TOs (WF is actually #4 in the conference in best offensive TO% in ACC games), that WF defends the lane and doesn't give up easy baskets. When State is forced to play half court basketball (against UVA, ND and @Clemson), they have struggled. Would help if Moore can stay out of foul trouble and win the matchup with Yurtseven. WF gave away the game at State as WF had a 3 point lead late, but managed to go scoreless over the last 2:30. Like this matchup for WF, and maybe the team is playing with a little more confidence after the double digit win on Wednesday.
 
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No idea on this one.

My biggest concern is that it will be a parade to the free throw line for NCSU. If we can somehow get the typical home court treatment from ACC refs, I think we'll be OK... But I still worry.

Given we are #3 in tempo in ACC games and NCSU is #2, I expect a track meet with a lot of points... Unfortunately, as Pilch points out, NCSU struggles when forced to play a half court style game.

Perhaps Manning will slow it down a little bit (likely) and we'll focus on protecting the basketball (unlikely) and taking good shots (even more unlikely).

So yeah, no idea here. I like the fact that we played them tight/close in Raleigh, but NCSU has a lot more to play for than we do right now.

Give me the Deacs in a very close game that goes down to the wire... I expect the game thread to incorrectly presuppose a collapse at the end.
 
Here is an interesting stat, Wake has shot over 125 LESS ft's this ACC season than our opponents
 
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No idea on this one.

My biggest concern is that it will be a parade to the free throw line for NCSU. If we can somehow get the typical home court treatment from ACC refs, I think we'll be OK... But I still worry.

Given we are #3 in tempo in ACC games and NCSU is #2, I expect a track meet with a lot of points... Unfortunately, as Pilch points out, NCSU struggles when forced to play a half court style game.

Perhaps Manning will slow it down a little bit (likely) and we'll focus on protecting the basketball (unlikely) and taking good shots (even more unlikely).

So yeah, no idea here. I like the fact that we played them tight/close in Raleigh, but NCSU has a lot more to play for than we do right now.

Give me the Deacs in a very close game that goes down to the wire... I expect the game thread to incorrectly presuppose a collapse at the end.

I predict a close game with a typical Wake late game collapse. :D
 
2017-8 Schedule: The Pack are 17-9 (7-6). Top 100 wins: #21 Arizona by 6; #4 Duke by 11; #15 Clemson by 1 , #84 WF by 9, #10 UNC in OT, #40 ND by 18 and #48 Cuse by 4.

That's a sobering reminder of what a gap there is between the mid-50's and mid 80's in KP. We've beat #90 UNCG, #48 Syracuse, #24 FSU. It feels like a massive jump from where we are to knocking off Duke, UNC, Clemson, AZ and still only finding yourself as only the 55th best team in the country.
 
Here is an interesting stat, Wake has shot over 125 LESS ft's this ACC season than our opponents

Would be interesting to bump that up against our shots in the paint and number of 3 pointers/and long jump shots.
 
That's a sobering reminder of what a gap there is between the mid-50's and mid 80's in KP. We've beat #90 UNCG, #48 Syracuse, #24 FSU. It feels like a massive jump from where we are to knocking off Duke, UNC, Clemson, AZ and still only finding yourself as only the 55th best team in the country.

It's true that there is a gap, but we were #36 last year with exactly 3 top 50 wins (and 2 of those were Miami-42 and VT-50).

The reason NCSU is only in the 50s is because they played (and beat) some truly awful teams outside of the ACC.

5 wins against teams #301 or worse
3 wins against teams #201-300 (4, if you count Pitt)

They also got rolled by 30 @ Notre Dame.

They have 4 50/50 games left and another against BC (not a pushover)... Will be very interesting to see if they make the NCAAs. I think they need to get to 10 ACC wins and I doubt it happens.
 
They also lost at home to WES.
 
I like our chances. We got close to a W in Raleigh. Moore is a matchup problem for any team, and NCSU does tend to play small. Much of the critique of this team has been valid but we can agree on one thing: despite losing they always show up to compete. They were ready against GT (who is awful right now but still). Barring TOs and a lack of assists, I think we could win this one.
 
The Big Yurt dominated in Raleigh - unsure if Moore can guard someone with his skill set. Seems like State has been absolutely on fire from 3 lately when I've watched them, including some clutch late 3s against Cuse and a ton against UNC in both meetings.
 
It's true that there is a gap, but we were #36 last year with exactly 3 top 50 wins (and 2 of those were Miami-42 and VT-50).

The reason NCSU is only in the 50s is because they played (and beat) some truly awful teams outside of the ACC.

5 wins against teams #301 or worse
3 wins against teams #201-300 (4, if you count Pitt)

They also got rolled by 30 @ Notre Dame.

They have 4 50/50 games left and another against BC (not a pushover)... Will be very interesting to see if they make the NCAAs. I think they need to get to 10 ACC wins and I doubt it happens.

This is correct. State needs 10 wins to make the tourney. Big wins are there but the schedule early was awful (expecting a big time rebuild I’d guess). State gets to 10 wins with a win tomorrow so I expect our best effort. Should be a fun game that’s close
 
I have never been at a point where I truly don't care, especially against State, until this season.
 
Announcers at the last game noted that opponents have made more FTs than Wake has taken. That is a big discrepancy that Danny needs to address.
 
Announcers at the last game noted that opponents have made more FTs than Wake has taken. That is a big discrepancy that Danny needs to address.

I don't understand the absence of demonstrable protests. I know coaches have their own styles; but players and even fans need to see a coach fight for his team. One of the things I appreciate about Clawson is his willingness to challenge officials when he thinks that calls are weighted against his team. DM needs to show some fire and fight for more even handing officiating.
 
I'm kinda surprised to see that we are 1 point favorites in Vegas.
 
BTW, a personal friend is being honored at halftime with the Gene Hooks Award, Tal Jobe. He's a really good guy and a fine basketball coach having won a 3-A State Championship. Wish I could be there.
 
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