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Next Wake Forest Basketball Coach...

DeacsATS said:
I’m assuming your expectations are even lower, so I’m not sure what your point is.

I’m not saying that is my barometer for success... I’m just trying to be realistic coming off of an 11-20 season.

If we don’t make the NCAAs next year (at a minimum), Manning should be gone.
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Ok, got it. Slight misunderstanding on my part. Sorry about that. I want us to be a lot better than a bubble team next year, but yeah my prediction is that we won’t be. My expectation in general by year five is to be a lock for the tournament. If we don’t make a splash in the ACC and/or make the tournament, DM should be released before the clock expires in our last game.
 
Tall task for DM to flip the script from 11-20 to 20-11, but he has one more season to get it done.
 
PaddyWF said:
No, that is my point. DM would definitely be back, and should, were we to go .500/mid-seed in the tournament next season. My preface is that would be the absolute best-case scenario if everything went well next season.

It's more likely that we are double-digit / bubble team, or miss the tourney all together. Then what? DM would still be back and there would be almost no reason to think he can be a top-level ACC coach. I'm lamenting the fact that we are tied to DM for 3 more years unless we absolutely suck next year. Unless you believe he can develop into a top-level ACC coach, why be excited about that?

Your best-case scenario of 3 .500 consecutive seasons seems extremely unlikely given what we have seen so far. But would I sign up for that right now as a bridge to the next coach that is not a Wellman hire? Hell yes.
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Manning has a way better chance of developing into a top level ACC coach (though still not a great one) than Wellman does of hiring one.

And, as I’m not a Manning outer, that’s not my best case scenario.
 
RChildress107 said:
Manning has a way better chance of developing into a top level ACC coach (though still not a great one) than Wellman does of hiring one.

And, as I’m not a Manning outer, that’s not my best case scenario.
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You realize that Wellman hired Manning, right ?
 
thatguy2016 said:
regarding Crawford "returning to form", I'm not sure his 2016-17 form can solely attributed to him

I think he had a pretty solid year because we had an elite efficient scorer on the interior who could establish position, catch anything in his vicinity, and convert; teams had to stop that and so everyone around him was better, including #13

Moore showed tremendous improvement last year, and we underused him, but he was nowhere near the efficient machine that John Collins was

so, I don't see a return to 2016-17 form for #13 - hope I'm wrong
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It's likely that Doral will improve a bit (not as much as sop-jr). It's also likely that Sarr will gain strength and improve. Replacing Wilbekin and Thompson with Hoard, Sarr and Mucius is exactly what you posted about having much talent around him.

Additionally, he played a lot of minutes this year with Key and Wilbekin on the court together making him have to help on D a lot more than he will this year.
 
birdman said:
Where did you get these probabilities?
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10% chance Manning turns into a “Top ACC coach” and 50% chance that Wellman can hire someone as good as Manning (based solely on Wellman’s last two hires).

To seriously advocate for Manning’s firing you have to, IMO:

1. Vastly underestimate Manning’s overall coaching ability;

2. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to succeed at Wake;

3. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to identify AND hire a potential top 20 coach from all available options; and

4. Vastly overestimate Ron Wellman’s ability to do #3.

The further down the list you get the less defensible the conclusion.
 
RChildress107 said:
10% chance Manning turns into a “Top ACC coach” and 50% chance that Wellman can hire someone as good as Manning (based solely on Wellman’s last two hires).

To seriously advocate for Manning’s firing you have to, IMO:

1. Vastly underestimate Manning’s overall coaching ability;

2. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to succeed at Wake;

3. Vastly overestimate how easy it is to identify AND hire a potential top 20 coach from all available options; and

4. Vastly overestimate Ron Wellman’s ability to do #3.

The further down the list you get the less defensible the conclusion.
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Making up stats is easy, look: 0% chance Manning turns in to a top coach anywhere, 75% chance anyone we hire can do better with the same roster.

1. Mannings overall coaching ability - He can teach guys that played the same position as him, basically that's it/
2. How easy it is to succeed at Wake - Well a few other coaches have done it so its very possible. Its not like we've never been #1 in the country, won the ACC, or gone deep in the tourney.
3. How easy it is to identify a potential top 20 coach - very easy, I've seen most people on the board do it. Part 2 how easy to hire - its all about $, which Wake has.
4. Ron Wellman's ability - Next to 0%, but enough big boosters can get involved so that its not really his decision, since its likely they will $ the rest of Manning's buyout.
 
netflixnchildres said:
Making up stats is easy, look: 0% chance Manning turns in to a top coach anywhere, 75% chance anyone we hire can do better with the same roster.

1. Mannings overall coaching ability - He can teach guys that played the same position as him, basically that's it/
2. How easy it is to succeed at Wake - Well a few other coaches have done it so its very possible. Its not like we've never been #1 in the country, won the ACC, or gone deep in the tourney.
3. How easy it is to identify a potential top 20 coach - very easy, I've seen most people on the board do it. Part 2 how easy to hire - its all about $, which Wake has.
4. Ron Wellman's ability - Next to 0%, but enough big boosters can get involved so that its not really his decision, since its likely they will $ the rest of Manning's buyout.
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5. Vastly overestimate the influence our big boosters have/are willing to wield to overrule Wellman.

Name who you think the top 20 coaches in America will be five years from now and how much money it would take to get them to Wake this offseason. I’ll start:

1. Coach K - would $50 million do it? Probably not, right?
2. Roy- ditto.
3. Wright - less than those two, but definitely 8 figures
4. Calipari- more than Wright
5. Izzo- Calipari range

6. Take it from here, let me know when you find a coach that Wake could feasibly hire this offseason.
 
RChildress107 said:
5. Vastly overestimate the influence our big boosters have/are willing to wield to overrule Wellman.

Name who you think the top 20 coaches in America will be five years from now and how much money it would take to get them to Wake this offseason. I’ll start:

1. Coach K - would $50 million do it? Probably not, right?
2. Roy- ditto.
3. Wright - less than those two, but definitely 8 figures
4. Calipari- more than Wright
5. Izzo- Calipari range

6. Take it from here, let me know when you find a coach that Wake could feasibly hire this offseason.
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5 years from now K and Roy are probably not even coaching. Need to hire up and coming talent like DR preaches. No need to consider coaches over 55 who won't be able to be here at least 10 years.
 
netflixnchildres said:
5 years from now K and Roy are probably not even coaching. Need to hire up and coming talent like DR preaches. No need to consider coaches over 55 who won't be able to be here at least 10 years.
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People said the same thing 5 years ago. But fine, take them out. Should make it even easier to name the future top 20 and how much money it would take to get them right now.
 
Our program will be in much much worse shape after next season, thats why you can Manning now. Now a new coach would have something to work with, next year will be a huge mess, im talking Pitt type mess.
 
Craw and Moore will be gone, if we get a grad transfer hes gone, Chaundee could possibly go pro as well as Hoard, our 19 class will not be very good.
 
bigboy8 said:
Our program will be in much much worse shape after next season, thats why you can Manning now. Now a new coach would have something to work with, next year will be a huge mess, im talking Pitt type mess.
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This is the truth.

You sell before the bottom. After manning screws up another year, has even more players leaving the program, and a weak incoming class, there will be nothing to sell.

At this point, you still have some returning talent and a good class to offer an incoming coach.

Wellman let the ship sink all the way down before he let BZ go and will likely do the same with Manning. This is the Rchill plan.
 
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