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Donovan Mitchell Transferring

DeacsATS said:
I guess what I’m saying is we haven’t sucked because we lost any of those guys... We need/needed better players in front of them in order to be good. Ideally, they’d have been lower rotation guys guys at Wake, anyway.
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If we're not going to recruit at an elite level - like Duke/UK/UNC well - then we have to be able to count on some players of this caliber contributing by the time that they are upperclassmen. What ends up happening instead is that we have 2-3 good players surrounded by rotating classes of future transfers who give us very little.
 
Apparently our players, who would have the most insight on the quality of Danny’s coaching are voting with their feet. Tells me all I need to know about the future of our basketball team. I look forward to hearing the spin from the same people that touted Donovan as one of Danny’s successes about how we didn’t need him anyway and there are always transfers. What a laughingstock we have become.
 
Strickland33 said:
If we're not going to recruit at an elite level - like Duke/UK/UNC well - then we have to be able to count on some players of this caliber contributing by the time that they are upperclassmen. What ends up happening instead is that we have 2-3 good players surrounded by rotating classes of future transfers who give us very little.
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Definitely.

I’d say the issue is more that we’re reaching when we take guys like Washington. That was a bad miss.

I understand taking a shot on SJM, but that clearly didn’t work out, either.

Mitchell is OK, and could have continued to improve here, but like I said earlier... He doesn’t rebound/defend well enough to be an ACC 4 and he’s too slow at the 3 (and Hoard/Mucius would have been above him from day 1). I get why he’s leaving.
 
Maybe he was worried that Danny would get the Kansas job.
 
I get that kids leave programs. Happens all over. Do we have what would seem more than our fair share? Perhaps so.

But a lot of the prevailing argument here has been that these very same players are 'not ACC level' players. And a lot of the sentiment here is intransigently negative.

It hurts to lose players, no doubt. And, not every player loss is 'addition by subtraction'. Are these recent 'defections'? Time will tell.

Some of this in on coach, but not all of it. How much? Hard to quantify that. Speculate all you want; it is, after all, just an internet message board.

I love this place. I spend more time here than I likely should, but the knee-jerk, hardly prescient reactions to these sorts of things are not worth much more than the bandwidth they are printed on (including my thoughts here).

My roots in all this basketball roller coaster bidness hail from the 'CD Chesley era'. "Sail with the pilot", and all that. 3 channels of television. Black and white...monochrome.

I don't like the feel of this any more than the most ardent detractors do.

We're not in the very good shape as a program. That's obvious. But I don't think we're quite yet to the point of interminable despair. When hope is lost, there isn't much left, is there?

For the love of all that's reasonable, then, get a fucking grip! :)
 
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Tubby said there were about 800 D1 transfers last year.
 
Ignore it all you want, but the amount of transfers over the last 8 years is a bad sign and it has kept the program perennially young.
 
knowell said:
Ignore it all you want, but the amount of transfers over the last 8 years is a bad sign and it has kept the program perennially young.
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I agree with that, but I'm not concerned with the last 8 years (or really anything that happened pre-Manning). I'm only worried about this year's attrition and how that impacts next year.

Losing Mitchell hurts depth (and contributes to being perennially young, given he'd have been a junior), but RW & SJM leaving opens spots for others to fill. 2019, as has been discussed, is huge... Manning needs to bring in multiple players with the talent to contribute in the ACC relatively early on. Or we can go the transfer route (either grad - which nobody seems to be a fan of, or a regular transfer - which I'd like to see).

The last couple of years haven't been so bad in terms of transfers. McClinton leaving after last season had zero impact. Watson leaving the year before was also a non-event. Hudson, like SJM, had other issues... I have no idea what he's even doing right now.

There are plenty of reasons to criticize Manning... I'm not sure the transfers during his tenure are among those reasons.
 
knowell said:
Disagree that a senior Mitchel would not help this team. I also disagree that Woods, should he transfer, would not be missed.

It seems strange that players are not good enough to be role players for a bad wake team end up helping someone else to the NCAA tournament.

Anyone doubt that Mitchel will see the NCAAT before a Wake Forest team will.
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Yes
 
By the time they've finished their sophomore year 40% of players have transfered. Realizing you're never going to start for an ACC program short of guys in front of you leaving or getting hurt puts everyone to a decision. Some guys like Cav not only benefit from transferring to weaker competition, but also from a year of getting stronger and better with no worries about being game ready. Look at Shelton Mitchell - he comes in as a slow, tubby player with a broken jumper and has a disastrous freshman year and transfers, now he's an excellent starter on a good ACC team and he's barely recognizable.

If I were in that position I'd transfer as well, and it wouldn't have all the much to do with coaching or the school or any other reason assuming the goal is to make money playing basketball. Wake is better off being up front with those players and encouraging them to do what's best for their careers, not bulshitting them or promising playing time that will never come.

If Wake can be on the receiving end of the other side of that coin, then everyone wins. Thompson was a disaster but you have to hope that was due to Dinos late exit. Woods was an excellent pickup, and if he leaves we have space for a shooter and a banger inside. I don't see Sarr as ready to start yet next year, so he'll likely backup Moore at the 5 and mix in some time at the 4. Hoard and Brown will start every game. Craw as well unless he leaves, then it'd be Chill. Add a high percentage 3 point shooter and a quality backup 4 and we're in pretty damn good shape.

Bring in some stiffs, mismanage the talent and miss the tourney? Manning out.
 
More than ever before, it is important to recruit guys who will accept coaching and the coach's assessment of their game. If kids aren't willing to work hard for playing time...harder than the player they are competing against...and if they have an attitude of entitlement to play because they are so good (whether they work or not), you will inevitably have multiple transfers.

I love the Tubby Smith quote from his dad when Tubby was wanting to transfer out of High Point: essentially his dad said, it's High Point or the Army. Finish what you start.
 
Sometimes things like this happens. If the bum doesnt want to play here get em out.
 
DeacsATS said:
Definitely.

I’d say the issue is more that we’re reaching when we take guys like Washington. That was a bad miss.

I understand taking a shot on SJM, but that clearly didn’t work out, either.

Mitchell is OK, and could have continued to improve here, but like I said earlier... He doesn’t rebound/defend well enough to be an ACC 4 and he’s too slow at the 3 (and Hoard/Mucius would have been above him from day 1). I get why he’s leaving.
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Reaching indeed. Composite rankings of our 2016 guys plus a few others:

Chill - 143 (avg rank of 31st best PG in class)
SJM - 101 (avg rank of 14th best C in class; our only 4*)
Rich - 212 (avg rank of 36th best SF in class)
DMit- 179 (avg rank of 41st best SF in class)

At one point this class was rated as high as 28th as on 9/15/15, but then dropped to 61st by mid-October. If you consider Key part of the '16 Class since he had to sit out a year, his numbers were even worse...337 composite and 81st best SG in his original '15 class. Probably would have cracked Top 225 \ 60 at his position in '16??

Here are few guys we missed on in addition to Giles:

Koby McEwen - composite rank of 64 (14th best PG in '16 Class, lost to Utah St)
Elijah Wright - composite rank of 107 (28th best SG in '16 Class, lost to Miss St & Ben Howland)
Kwe Parker - composite rank of 173 (34th best SG in '16 Class, lost to Tenn...maybe a good thing?)
Brandon Cyrus - comp rank of 195 (31st best SG in '16 Class, lost to DePaul...not sure if serious interest)

Other Offers we made to guards that were higher ranked than Top 100: Dennis Smith (haha), Lamar Peters (97), Terrence Ferguson (16, guffaw!).

Man Ben Howland was doin' werk in that Class, but not sure how well that's panning out. But still, many here wanted Howland as coach. IDK, I'd take 22-11 and an NIT bid for this sophomore class if we could have gotten Eli Wright and Lamar Peters. Of course, perhaps Brandon Childress would have ended up somewhere else, or had preferred walk-on status.
 
knowell said:
Ignore it all you want, but the amount of transfers over the last 8 years is a bad sign and it has kept the program perennially young.
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When a program is where WF is right now, everything is characterized as a "bad sign". Duke has had a ton of transfers in recent years, and they seem to be doing OK.

The 2016 recruiting class was a disaster because WF missed on Giles. WF reached for Washington (understand it was early; but not sure who watched him play extensively and thought that Wash would become an ACC caliber player; just a terrible decision to offer), Mitchell (who may turn out to be a decent college player) and SJM, but the fact is that losing those 3 guys will have zero future impact (positive or negative) on the program.
 
Pilchard said:
When a program is where WF is right now, everything is characterized as a "bad sign". Duke has had a ton of transfers in recent years, and they seem to be doing OK.

The 2016 recruiting class was a disaster because WF missed on Giles. WF reached for Washington (understand it was early; but not sure who watched him play extensively and thought that Wash would become an ACC caliber player; just a terrible decision to offer), Mitchell (who may turn out to be a decent college player) and SJM, but the fact is that losing those 3 guys will have zero future impact (positive or negative) on the program.
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Comparisons to Duke do not compute...apples to oranges. While I agree that the loss of SJM & Rick Wash will probably have very little impact, I concur with others who think losing Mitchell is a negative as some added strength could have made him an interesting and useful player who provides leadership and a spark off the bench when Sarr and Mucius are having bad nights. Definitely hurts our short-term depth and now Danny will be tempted to back-fill again through the transfer market. Not sure we can keep doing that without more continued momentum on the recruiting scene. Can't follow up 2018 with a dud class like '16 followed a solid foundation-setting '15 class.
 
Why the Deac Not said:
Reaching indeed. Composite rankings of our 2016 guys plus a few others:

Chill - 143 (avg rank of 31st best PG in class)
SJM - 101 (avg rank of 14th best C in class; our only 4*)
Rich - 212 (avg rank of 36th best SF in class)
DMit- 179 (avg rank of 41st best SF in class)

At one point this class was rated as high as 28th as on 9/15/15, but then dropped to 61st by mid-October. If you consider Key part of the '16 Class since he had to sit out a year, his numbers were even worse...337 composite and 81st best SG in his original '15 class. Probably would have cracked Top 225 \ 60 at his position in '16??

Here are few guys we missed on in addition to Giles:

Koby McEwen - composite rank of 64 (14th best PG in '16 Class, lost to Utah St)
Elijah Wright - composite rank of 107 (28th best SG in '16 Class, lost to Miss St & Ben Howland)
Kwe Parker - composite rank of 173 (34th best SG in '16 Class, lost to Tenn...maybe a good thing?)
Brandon Cyrus - comp rank of 195 (31st best SG in '16 Class, lost to DePaul...not sure if serious interest)

Other Offers we made to guards that were higher ranked than Top 100: Dennis Smith (haha), Lamar Peters (97), Terrence Ferguson (16, guffaw!).

Man Ben Howland was doin' werk in that Class, but not sure how well that's panning out. But still, many here wanted Howland as coach. IDK, I'd take 22-11 and an NIT bid for this sophomore class if we could have gotten Eli Wright and Lamar Peters. Of course, perhaps Brandon Childress would have ended up somewhere else, or had preferred walk-on status.
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Eli Wright hasn't really done anything yet. He averaged 13.1 mpg his as a FR and managed 3.5 ppg on 53% FGA. As as SO, he averaged 14.4 mpg and put up 3.2 ppg on 41% FGA. 3pt FGA as a SO was 21%.

Koby McEwen was hurt all year but he was great as FR. When he chooses UT State though, I think that's a sign he was interested in something else.
 
Why the Deac Not said:
Comparisons to Duke do not compute...apples to oranges. While I agree that the loss of SJM & Rick Wash will probably have very little impact, I concur with others who think losing Mitchell is a negative as some added strength could have made him an interesting and useful player who provides leadership and a spark off the bench when Sarr and Mucius are having bad nights. Definitely hurts our short-term depth and now Danny will be tempted to back-fill again through the transfer market. Not sure we can keep doing that without more continued momentum on the recruiting scene. Can't follow up 2018 with a dud class like '16 followed a solid foundation-setting '15 class.
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Yes, WF is not Duke, but the point is that when everyone is down on a program, anything that happens is considered to be a disaster. Right now, it's fun to pile on the WF basketball program, and this board is filled with people that love to pile on.

Don't see the loss of Mitchell as having any impact on WF's season next year. Yes, he would've gotten some minutes, but even with some improvement, Mitchell is unlikely to ever become a difference maker on the ACC level. BTW, not saying that WF will be good or even middling without Mitchell (WF will not be a top 25 team as some have idiotically suggested), just that WF will be a bottom half ACC team with or without Mitchell. Just don't see a retrospective on the 2018-9 season including the statement: "If WF had only held on to Donovan Mitchell, this season would've been special".
 
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Pilchard said:
When a program is where WF is right now, everything is characterized as a "bad sign". Duke has had a ton of transfers in recent years, and they seem to be doing OK.

The 2016 recruiting class was a disaster because WF missed on Giles. WF reached for Washington (understand it was early; but not sure who watched him play extensively and thought that Wash would become an ACC caliber player; just a terrible decision to offer), Mitchell (who may turn out to be a decent college player) and SJM, but the fact is that losing those 3 guys will have zero future impact (positive or negative) on the program.
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Sort of. Washington was (like Overton, A. Washington, Fischer, and other before them) sold as "4 year guys." The theory behind this is that Wake would excel by getting these "4 year guys" who, while not stars (or even contributors) as freshman, would grow, develop and turn into contributors when they hit their upper-class years. With the exception of CJ Harris (a guy who was actually good as a frosh) and maybe Wilbekin (same?), I'm not sure any of these supposed developmental players has panned out in the past decade or so.

Other schools have been able to find some success getting guys into their school, growing them as players, and having them make contributions as juniors and seniors. Wake's kids either can play as freshman or seemingly suck for the entirety of their time at Wake.

I would agree that in general, losing 3 guys from the 2016 class to transfer doesn't matter- those guys weren't really ACC-level guys, and didn't appear to be on target to become such. The real problem with 2016 was that the class just didn't have ACC-level talent in it. Wake can't afford to strike out in a recruiting year with the way college basketball functions these days.

On the other hand, Wake has to find a way go get guys into the program who develop to the point that they are solid contributors as juniors and seniors, even if they are going to play behind more talented players for a period of time.
 
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