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OFFICIAL 2018 MLB PLAYOFFS Thread (Cubs free)

Deaconblue said:
The description said the player to be named later or cash. If a player can be replaced by cash, he probably isn't anybody the Phils expect to make the big leagues...ever.
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I wouldn't be so sure - Ramos is still owed like $4 million for the rest of the year, the idea of saving $1-2 million is worth a decent prospect. Maybe A-ball, or a fringe top 20 team prospect, but if it does end up being a player, likely won't be a nobody.
 
Last night, the broadcasters said the stat geeks said Jackie Bradley Junior's catch last Sunday had a 42% chance of being made. That's basically 5/12 and totally insane. The distance he covered; the fact that he bounced off the warning track and crashed into the uncushioned wall makes that number ludicrous and the formulas used insane.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/07/29/red-sox-jackie-bradley-jr-catch
 
DaDeacs said:
I wouldn't be so sure - Ramos is still owed like $4 million for the rest of the year, the idea of saving $1-2 million is worth a decent prospect. Maybe A-ball, or a fringe top 20 team prospect, but if it does end up being a player, likely won't be a nobody.
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Remember Ramos is hurt and won't play for at least two weeks. Mid August is current timetable. Then he will probably need a rehab assignment in minors. Another week. So he will be useful on field for 3/4 or less of the regular season. I don't see that rental period being worth a top 20 prospect unless it is one the Phils have given up on.
 
Deaconblue said:
Remember Ramos is hurt and won't play for at least two weeks. Mid August is current timetable. Then he will probably need a rehab assignment in minors. Another week. So he will be useful on field for 3/4 or less of the regular season. I don't see that rental period being worth a top 20 prospect unless it is one the Phils have given up on.
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We'll see.
 
RJKarl said:
Last night, the broadcasters said the stat geeks said Jackie Bradley Junior's catch last Sunday had a 42% chance of being made. That's basically 5/12 and totally insane. The distance he covered; the fact that he bounced off the warning track and crashed into the uncushioned wall makes that number ludicrous and the formulas used insane.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/07/29/red-sox-jackie-bradley-jr-catch
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Catch Probability represents the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four important pieces of information tracked by Statcast. 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there. 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?

Accordingly, each tracked batted ball to the outfield is assigned an expected Catch Probability percentage -- relative to comparable catch opportunities in the Statcast era -- based on distance needed and opportunity time. The more time a fielder has to react to a ball and the less distance needed to reach it, the higher the Catch Probability.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Catch Probability represents the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four important pieces of information tracked by Statcast. 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there. 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?

Accordingly, each tracked batted ball to the outfield is assigned an expected Catch Probability percentage -- relative to comparable catch opportunities in the Statcast era -- based on distance needed and opportunity time. The more time a fielder has to react to a ball and the less distance needed to reach it, the higher the Catch Probability.
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In other words, he likely got a terrible jump and then recovered.
 
deactherunner said:
In other words, he likely got a terrible jump and then recovered.
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He got an amazing jump and made an incredible play.

Any "program" that says that ball would be caught 5 out of 12 times is fatally flawed and should never be used. If that play was made 1 time out 12, I'd be astonished.

The distance he covered was massive. The fact that he bounced off the warning track twice and his momentum took him into the non-cushioned wall at a high rate of speed makes that catch even more improbable.

Hell, Sutcliffe and Ross played about thirty years in the bigs between them and each said it one of the most amazing catches they had ever seen.

Sorry, that number is total and absolute garbage.
 
Standing behind these stat frauds is like how Numbers and others kept defending the gibberish that there is no such thing as the hot hand in basketball.
 
Is that directed to me? That's a direct quote from Jackie Bradley Jr talking about how he got a bad jump on the ball :noidea:
 
Not to you, in general.

Great players have much higher expectations of themselves than others. He expects more of himself. His idea of the jump he got is belied by the tapes.

Sorry, there's no way in hell that play gets made 5 out of every 12 times it happens. I'd be stunned if it was completed 1 in 50.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Catch Probability represents the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four important pieces of information tracked by Statcast. 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there. 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?

Accordingly, each tracked batted ball to the outfield is assigned an expected Catch Probability percentage -- relative to comparable catch opportunities in the Statcast era -- based on distance needed and opportunity time. The more time a fielder has to react to a ball and the less distance needed to reach it, the higher the Catch Probability.
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That sounds like a really complicated "theory" and should be disregarded in favor of the Rick Sutcliffe eye test.
 
RJKarl said:
Not to you, in general.

Great players have much higher expectations of themselves than others. He expects more of himself. His idea of the jump he got is belied by the tapes.

Sorry, there's no way in hell that play gets made 5 out of every 12 times it happens. I'd be stunned if it was completed 1 in 50.
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Bro, your take here is wrong - he literally said he got a bad jump, you trying to disagree with his statement about what he did is silly. If you want to talk about hot hand or whatever, go to the basketball thread. There are plenty of tapes you can watch on catch probability, and tons that get caught that have a lower catch probability than this one and you can watch for yourself to see what you think.
 
Talk about bad reading comprehension. You can't understand the parallels.
 
The hang time of that ball was over 4 seconds - likely the top reason the percentage is relatively high compared to what you might expect. That's a decent amount of time to get to the ball.
 
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