Dino to Louisville

RJKarl said:

Wellman had made an assessment and had a back-up. He's just arrogant and incompetent.

Click to expand...

So, you might say that his assessment was incorrect. But, either way the decisions are linked. There is no way around it.

Deaconblue said:

Even if the probabilities are assessed correctly, I would posit that none of them was 100% one way or the other. When dealing with people, even the best assessment can end up with the result being the lower probability one. So decisions like hiring and firing are not cut and dried probability distributions.

Click to expand...

Probability distributions are not cut and dry. If there are uncertainties associated with individual actors preferences or behavior that aren't accounted for in you predecision assessment, then you are not setting up you probability distributions correctly because you are failing to account for a large source of uncertainty. Obviously the a decision outcome can end up on the lower end of a probability distribution, that is pretty much exactly how probability theory works, it's an likely but possible outcome.

RJKarl said:

This is silly. Of course, you separate them. They are 100% independent and individual acts. The previous coach could absolutely deserve to be fired and you could fail the hire.

The fact that no other P6 or any school hired him as a HC shows Dino was not respected in the industry.

Click to expand...

Please provide a list of schools that declined to hire dino. Show me the interviews he took. You have no idea what job (s) he was interested in and did not get.

Dino lost his best friend and stepped away. He was making a good living at a slower pace. The only thing we do know is he took a job with a former co-worker who he probably considers a friend. Maybe no other job offered the list of intangibles he found at louisville.

Most agree he was not likely to be the long term guy to take wake from top 30 program to the next level. I just dont understand taking every chance to shit on a coach that won 60% of his games under difficult circumstances while learning and adapting a new defense successfully. He is a far better coach than the ones that came after.

F U ronnie

Any time you are attempting to predict the future outcome of actions of a single human being the uncertainties in the variables quickly become so large as to make the probability distributions unmanageable. Particularly when the future being predicted is influenced by the actions of 100's of other people, and a bunch of them are teenage boys.

deaconson said:

Please provide a list of schools that declined to hire dino. Show me the interviews he took. You have no idea what job (s) he was interested in and did not get.

Dino lost his best friend and stepped away. He was making a good living at a slower pace. The only thing we do know is he took a job with a former co-worker who he probably considers a friend. Maybe no other job offered the list of intangibles he found at louisville.

Most agree he was not likely to be the long term guy to take wake from top 30 program to the next level. I just dont understand taking every chance to shit on a coach that won 60% of his games under difficult circumstances while learning and adapting a new defense successfully. He is a far better coach than the ones that came after.

F U ronnie

Click to expand...

The only "evidence" of Dino not being considered for other jobs is evidence by absence. That is, almost every coaching vacancy develops rumors and speculation about who might be candidates for the job. Dino's name wasn't making the rumor mill.

My point is maybe he did not want it out there. Maybe this is the first coaching job he was interested in. Maybe not. Maybe he was actively looking and being turned down. That narrative only serves to "prove" firing him was the right decision and I'm betting ronnie does not mind that rumor.

Deaconblue said:

Any time you are attempting to predict the future outcome of actions of a single human being the uncertainties in the variables quickly become so large as to make the probability distributions unmanageable. Particularly when the future being predicted is influenced by the actions of 100's of other people, and a bunch of them are teenage boys.

Click to expand...

No. The first part is not true. Almost every decision you ever make is dependent on the actions of other humans and if what you say is true, no one would ever be able to make any predictions about the outcomes of a decision. People are fairly predictable, to some extent, if you know (or have some sense of) their objectives. And look even if things don't turn out along the most likely lines, in difficult to predict systems, good decision making is about the process you used to make the decision, not the outcome. So, I'll say it again, if what RJ says is true, that Wellman had a replacement and a backup in place but the deals fell through (i.e., he got a low probability outcome), the process was ok but the outcome sucked.

The second part is not true either, you don't need to predict the actions of 100's of other people when you are deciding to hire a new coach, especially the actions of teenage boys. You just need to have an estimate of the probability that one of 2 or 3 preferred replacement coaching options are going to accept your offer. The additional uncertainties that you are talking about (i.e., recruiting new players) go into who you narrow your search down to (i.e., the 2 or 3 replacement options).

I get the sense that we are getting a little a head of the curve on decision and probability theory, so I'll just let it rest.

The problem with a straight linear concept is that you have to do one of the actions before even trying the next one. We had to fire Dino before getting real answers from anyone else. Contacts made before that were generic and abstract. They often don't resemble the reality of what happens when an answer can be acted upon.

Add to this there are many other factors. You can reach out to a person in the Coach X camp before you fire your coach and hear, "Of course, we'd be very interested if your job opened up this year. It's a great job and we love your school."

That sounds like a great probability. After you fire coach, you get into the details that could kill the deal feeling that the deal is basically done, but it isn't close.

This is why you can't apply "science" to everything.

You are a fucking idiot.

We had Brad Stevens in the bag guys!!111!!!

8 pages of other people's Dino Gaudio takes. Woof.

Holy hell RJ, stop being dumb.

RJKarl said:

The problem with a straight linear concept is that you have to do one of the actions before even trying the next one. We had to fire Dino before getting real answers from anyone else. Contacts made before that were generic and abstract. They often don't resemble the reality of what happens when an answer can be acted upon.

Add to this there are many other factors. You can reach out to a person in the Coach X camp before you fire your coach and hear, "Of course, we'd be very interested if your job opened up this year. It's a great job and we love your school."

That sounds like a great probability. After you fire coach, you get into the details that could kill the deal feeling that the deal is basically done, but it isn't close.

This is why you can't apply "science" to everything.

Click to expand...

Dino has done well since his dismissal. He was well compensated by WFU as per his contract. He established himself as an analyst and color commentator in the lucrative sports entertainment industry, an occupation he can resume in the future. His firing is viewed sympathetically and as a mistake by most basketball fans, especially when the past eight years of WFU basketball is considered. He has resumed his coaching career with a successful and respected friend at upper echelon basketball program in need of an overhaul and return to respectability. Compared to the past eight years of Demon Deacon basketball, Dino won and Wellman lost. It isn't close.

Wellman lost? Nope. Wellman still gets paid the big bucks.

The fans lost.

I think he's comparing reputations, which is bigger and more important than $.

And yes, the fans lost

I must thank you again. I couldn't possibly show your true colors any easier or more eloquently than you have this morning.

I went out for breakfast and you stole another 10,000 REPUTATION points from me. I LOVE it!

You can't deal with me on an intellectual or class basis. So once again you pull this.

Your buddy Townie gets PWNED and you have to cover for him!

THANKS AGAIN!!

Meet the new bosses! Same as the old bosses!

BlackjackMc said:

Dino has done well since his dismissal. He was well compensated by WFU as per his contract. He established himself as an analyst and color commentator in the lucrative sports entertainment industry, an occupation he can resume in the future. His firing is viewed sympathetically and as a mistake by most basketball fans, especially when the past eight years of WFU basketball is considered. He has resumed his coaching career with a successful and respected friend at upper echelon basketball program in need of an overhaul and return to respectability. Compared to the past eight years of Demon Deacon basketball, Dino won and Wellman lost. It isn't close.

Click to expand...

If it was such a mistake, he would have gotten another P6 job during the past eight years. He didn't get a sniff of one. His "return" is as a third assistant not even an associate HC.

It was correct to fire him, but then Wellman fucked up big time afterwards.

You live your life on a treadmill Of stupidity.

RJKarl said:

If it was such a mistake, he would have gotten another P6 job during the past eight years. He didn't get a sniff of one. His "return" is as a third assistant not even an associate HC.

It was correct to fire him, but then Wellman fucked up big time afterwards.

Click to expand...

Do you know for certain that he wanted another P6 job, or any coaching job for that matter?