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Thread: Dino to Louisville

  1. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by wakephan09 View Post
    Perhaps you know lots about these "types of situations". Idk. But I've got a somewhat informed idea how wellman operates because I've been in the room and witnessed the ongoing processes that led him to eventually terminate more than one AD employee.

    I'm not saying this to defend the dude or how he operates. I'm just pointing out that lots of the things we tend to treat as history on the boards were always apocryphal or downright invented. Amazing how Dino getting this new gig has reignited this debate as yet another excuse to hate on Wellman when we all know firing him was the right call.
    We all know that was the right call. Weird that it led to the destruction of the basketball program and 8 years of complete suck.
    Let's hope he never gets a chance to make another right call.

  2. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by wakephan09 View Post
    Perhaps you know lots about these "types of situations". Idk. But I've got a somewhat informed idea how wellman operates because I've been in the room and witnessed the ongoing processes that led him to eventually terminate more than one AD employee.

    I'm not saying this to defend the dude or how he operates. I'm just pointing out that lots of the things we tend to treat as history on the boards were always apocryphal or downright invented. Amazing how Dino getting this new gig has reignited this debate as yet another excuse to hate on Wellman when we all know firing him was the right call.
    Dino was not a good coach, he lost his teams, they fell apart in the postseason, all that

    but firing him after he reached the NCAA tournament second round and then pinning his firing on lack of postseason success was terrible optics even then; it looks much worse now that we have the benefit of hindsight, but it looked bad then

  3. #143
    Iím honestly not convinced that firing Dino at that time was the right call.

  4. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by thatguy2016 View Post
    it looks much worse now that we have the benefit of hindsight, but it looked bad then
    I think this is probably the best way of putting it.

  5. #145
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Firing Dino didn't look bad then and doesn't look bad now. What looks bad is how Wellman handled Dino's replacement and then how we blew hiring Shaka.

    For the firing of Dino to look bad, he would have had to be hired somewhere else in the P6 as a HC and done well. In the eight years since, he hasn't been a serious contender for a single P6 HC gig.

  6. #146
    Actually Wake's shitty performance since firing Dino is all that Wake needs for firing Dino to look bad.

  7. #147
    It's always weird to me that people separate out the firing from the next hires like they are unrelated. You have to hire a head coach when you fire one. The fire/hire are directly related. If you don't hire a coach who does better than the one you had (actually does way worse) then it's crazy to say the firing was a good one.

  8. #148
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson View Post
    It's always weird to me that people separate out the firing from the next hires like they are unrelated. You have to hire a head coach when you fire one. The fire/hire are directly related. If you don't hire a coach who does better than the one you had (actually does way worse) then it's crazy to say the firing was a good one.
    This is silly. Of course, you separate them. They are 100% independent and individual acts. The previous coach could absolutely deserve to be fired and you could fail the hire.

    The fact that no other P6 or any school hired him as a HC shows Dino was not respected in the industry.

  9. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    This is silly. Of course, you separate them. They are 100% independent and individual acts. The previous coach could absolutely deserve to be fired and you could fail the hire.

    The fact that no other P6 or any school hired him as a HC shows Dino was not respected in the industry.
    Sorry RJ, in addition to studying birds, I study decision science, and these are what we in the business call linked decisions. The first decision is whether or not to fire Dino, and the second decision depends on the outcome of the first. A good decision maker would first consider the probability of success in the second decision before making the first decision. The value of firing Dino goes down as the probability of a successful subsequent hire goes down. The greater the uncertainty in the outcome of the second decision the the lower the value of firing the current coach, unless the the predicted future success of the current coach is so low that the probability of the making a good second decision doesn't matter. There are lots of permutations and various probabilities to consider, but calling them separate decisions in not correct.

  10. #150
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    The fact that Wellman totally screwed the subsequent hire has no bearing on firing Dino. Wellman thought he had a home run replacement but fucked it up. He also fucked up the back up plan. To even be in the position to make the next choice, you have to fire Dino.

    As much as many people would like sports to be "scientific", they aren't. You may genuinely feel a deal is done and it falls apart. Sorry, you can't legitimately conflate them.

  11. #151
    The IDIOTS who are starting anti-Manning threads and are already slamming our coach on thread after thread need to stop NOW!

    We have about 50% chance of having the #1 recruiting class in the country in 2019. These boards DO MATTER.

    When you team loses:

    50% of its scoring
    64% of it rebounding (which was already very weak)
    45% of its 3 point shooting

    When you do this and have no one to replace what you lose, YOU WILL SUCK! Anyone who didn't think we'd be worse than last year was being totally irrational.

    Manning delivered a Top 15-25 recruiting class in less six months after arriving and is bringing in for next year the GREATEST recruiting Wake has EVER HAD.

    To reactionary fools, this is not enough. They expect players who marginal and lost most of the best from last year to become good to great miraculously.

    You need to get a grip!

    Those threads and the insane posts MUST STOP!

    OR don't blame Manning for 2018. It's on YOU GUYS!

  12. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    The fact that Wellman totally screwed the subsequent hire has no bearing on firing Dino. Wellman thought he had a home run replacement but fucked it up. He also fucked up the back up plan. To even be in the position to make the next choice, you have to fire Dino.

    As much as many people would like sports to be "scientific", they aren't. You may genuinely feel a deal is done and it falls apart. Sorry, you can't legitimately conflate them.
    If what you say about the replacement plan is true, that we had a home run replacement lined up but it fell through, then the decision to fire Dino was fine... If that is the case then all Wellman did wrong was poorly assess the probabilities associated with the second decision. But a good decision maker should not look at these two decisions as independent. You should not be making the first decision without considering the probabilities of second. If you do treat them independently, then you are a bad decision maker.

  13. #153
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Anyone who thinks BZZZZ was #1 or #2 or probably even our #3 choice is really gullible. It's not about "probabilities". It was about his arrogant actions. The probabilities were in our favor. It was his follow through that put us where we are.

    Things that happen in the sports world are not pristine or 100% predictable. Thus, looking at them through such a spectrum is not a good idea. Hell, look at Billy Donovan signing a contract with the Magic and then reneging or many other coaches doing so, It's just not the same.

  14. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    Anyone who thinks BZZZZ was #1 or #2 or probably even our #3 choice is really gullible. It's not about "probabilities". It was about his arrogant actions. The probabilities were in our favor. It was his follow through that put us where we are.

    Things that happen in the sports world are not pristine or 100% predictable. Thus, looking at them through such a spectrum is not a good idea. Hell, look at Billy Donovan signing a contract with the Magic and then reneging or many other coaches doing so, It's just not the same.
    This is exactly why a good decision maker should assess the probability of success prior to make a decision. Anyone who thinks there is a 100% chance of some preferred out come happening is delusional. As I said in my previous post, if what you say is true, the only thing Wellman did wrong was incorrectly assess the probabilities prior to pulling the trigger on Dino.

  15. #155
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Wellman had made an assessment and had a back-up. He's just arrogant and incompetent.

  16. #156
    Quote Originally Posted by JamesSokolove View Post
    The IDIOTS who are starting anti-Manning threads and are already slamming our coach on thread after thread need to stop NOW!

    We have about 50% chance of having the #1 recruiting class in the country in 2019. These boards DO MATTER.

    When you team loses:

    50% of its scoring
    64% of it rebounding (which was already very weak)
    45% of its 3 point shooting

    When you do this and have no one to replace what you lose, YOU WILL SUCK! Anyone who didn't think we'd be worse than last year was being totally irrational.

    Manning delivered a Top 15-25 recruiting class in less six months after arriving and is bringing in for next year the GREATEST recruiting Wake has EVER HAD.

    To reactionary fools, this is not enough. They expect players who marginal and lost most of the best from last year to become good to great miraculously.

    You need to get a grip!

    Those threads and the insane posts MUST STOP!

    OR don't blame Manning for 2018. It's on YOU GUYS!
    Lol, I forgot about this stuff. We had a 50% chance of having the #1 recruiting class in 2016! Instead we ended up with 3 guys who are off the team by the end of their soph season and the coach's son.

  17. #157
    Bird nailed it. I've been clear on my Dino view since joining the boards. I think Dino was treated wrongly from beginning to end. I think Wellman fucked up by not making Dino a one-year interim. I would have been fine letting Dino go and hiring a better coach. But given the hires I'd been happier to let Dino play out another few seasons and go from there. My only point was that the good fire/bad hire gets way to much blind acceptance on the boards. The AD's job is to have the best coach leading the program. Clearly that didn't happen post-Dino. It's asinine to then argue it was a good fire if we didn't improve our HC.

    And a step further, as Bird points out, you have to look at the probability of success of the hire to justify the firing. Clearly Wellman botched that step. But even if there were a 99% chance of a better hire, if it didn't work out, in retrospect it still wasn't a "good" firing, as we were worse off. You can say you like the aggressiveness or the desire to get better or get someone better, whatever. But there's just no way to call it a good firing if you don't end up better off. Just nonsense.

    ETA: There are a lot of folks on these boards that let their dislike or lack of respect for Dino lead them to untenable positions. Hence the good fire/bad hire nonsense. "Well, Dino didn't know what he was doing and was a train wreck, blah blah blah. Yeah, Bz was terrible and DM isn't much better, but clearly Dino had to go." This is just such dumb bullshit. Dino reached NCAA 2/3 years, had one of the higher winning percentages of Wake coaches, recruited well. He also had a number of shortcomings that may have improved or not. But good lord to look at our last 8 or so years and argue firing Dino was in itself a good move and beyond debate is silliness to the extreme.
    Last edited by Turd Ferguson; 04-16-2018 at 01:40 PM.

  18. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by birdman View Post
    This is exactly why a good decision maker should assess the probability of success prior to make a decision. Anyone who thinks there is a 100% chance of some preferred out come happening is delusional. As I said in my previous post, if what you say is true, the only thing Wellman did wrong was incorrectly assess the probabilities prior to pulling the trigger on Dino.
    Even if the probabilities are assessed correctly, I would posit that none of them was 100% one way or the other. When dealing with people, even the best assessment can end up with the result being the lower probability one. So decisions like hiring and firing are not cut and dried probability distributions.

  19. #159
    Jeez, while I'm ranting...There are posters who argue firing Dino after 2 tournament appearances in three years made sense to everyone around the country because everyone knew he was terrible. But we can't fire Bz after two years or DM after three because it looks bad. In the real world with wins and losses and tournament appearances, this has got to be one of the dumbest things spouted off on here.

  20. #160
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Not at all dumb. It's the combination of doing those things in succession. Whether a coach is an up and comer or established, he has options. Very high on on the "Yh OH" list is an AD who is a proven Captain Hook.

    On top of that had we fired BZZ after two years, the cupboard would have been completely bare which would mean the new coach would be looking over his shoulder from Day One. Not many top level coaches would want to deal with such a situation.

    If you are talking about "probabilities", the "probability" of getting a good coach after two years of Bzzzzzzz is minuscule.

    What's "dumb" is to make statements without knowledge or context.

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