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Wake Forest Offseason Basketball Thread: Deacs in Inaugural Myrtle Beach Invitational

RChildress107 said:
Obligatory “we overachieved literally 2 seasons ago” post.
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If anybody really thinks that, they're clueless. We had the best player we've had since arguably CP3 and we finished 10th in the league and lost in a play-in game in the big dance. If that was overachieving, then might as well terminate the program.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
If anybody really thinks that, they're clueless. We had the best player we've had since arguably CP3 and we finished 10th in the league and lost in a play-in game in the big dance. If that was overachieving, then might as well terminate the program.
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We were predicted to finish 13th if I’m not mistaken and Kenpom started us out somewhere in the 70s (maybe lower, I just remember climbing a lot throughout the year). We were “better than the experts thought” we would be that year.
 
RChildress107 said:
We were predicted to finish 13th if I’m not mistaken and Kenpom started us out somewhere in the 70s (maybe lower, I just remember climbing a lot throughout the year). We were “better than the experts thought” we would be that year.
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Hence the BZ strategy. Win only 11 games the year before. Everyone uses that as the starting point and it is hard not to overachieve.

2 years ago was probably the most underachieving team relative to talent in the Manning era. You had the best offensive player in the country surrounded by a bunch of good 3 point shooters. Just a little defense and a little composure in the last 5 minutes of games and that team is a sweet 16 team.

Probably the most frustrating year to watch. I still have not gotten over the Clemson game where Wake was in complete control until a last 5 minute unfathomable collapse.

That game had me puking in the parking lot from sheer disgust.
 
RChildress107 said:
We were predicted to finish 13th if I’m not mistaken and Kenpom started us out somewhere in the 70s (maybe lower, I just remember climbing a lot throughout the year). We were “better than the experts thought” we would be that year.
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Expectations were partly so low heading into that year because we underachieved so much the year before going 11-20 (2-17). This isn't very complicated. Keep treasuring 2016-17 Wake Forest basketball, though!
 
knowell said:
Hence the BZ strategy. Win only 11 games the year before. Everyone uses that as the starting point and it is hard not to overachieve.

2 years ago was probably the most underachieving team relative to talent in the Manning era. You had the best offensive player in the country surrounded by a bunch of good 3 point shooters. Just a little defense and a little composure in the last 5 minutes of games and that team is a sweet 16 team.

Probably the most frustrating year to watch. I still have not gotten over the Clemson game where Wake was in complete control until a last 5 minute unfathomable collapse.

That game had me puking in the parking lot from sheer disgust.
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How did all of the experts (including those self proclaimed ones on this message board) miss that Wake should have been a Sweet 16 team that year?
 
WFUWaldo said:
According to KenPom, our most-likely to least-likely wins are:

11/10, vs. NC A&T, 98%
11/27, vs. Western Carolina, 96%
11/23, vs. Houston Baptist, 93%
12/6, vs. Charlotte, 93%
12/29, vs. Gardner Webb, 90%
1/2, vs. Cornell, 89%
2/5, vs. Pittsburgh, 73%
12/17, vs. Davidson, 59%
11/15, vs. Saint Joseph's, 53%
1/26, vs. Boston College, 52%
1/30, vs. Louisville, 52%
12/1, at Richmond, 44%
1/15, vs. NC State, 41%
1/5, at Georgia Tech, 38%
2/26, vs. Miami, 33%
3/9, vs. Florida State, 28%
2/19, at Notre Dame, 27%
3/2, vs. Syracuse, 23%
2/24, vs. NC State, 19%
1/8, vs. Duke, 17%
2/16, vs. North Carolina, 17%
1/12, at Miami, 14%
1/19, at Virginia Tech, 14%
2/3, at Clemson, 12%
2/13, at Florida State, 11%
12/22, at Tennessee, 10%
1/22, at Virginia, 8%
3/5, at Duke, 6%
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Not gonna lie, that Cornell game scares the shit outta me.
 
Ayo said:
Expectations were partly so low heading into that year because we underachieved so much the year before going 11-20 (2-17). This isn't very complicated. Keep treasuring 2016-17 Wake Forest basketball, though!
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It's almost as if pre-season expectations/predictions don't mean nearly as much once you've seen a season play out. It's almost like you can reset expectations and adjust your definition of success once you've seen all of the pieces actually play together on the court. It's almost like Manning was the same coach in 16-17 as he was in 17-18. Both teams underachieved as a result of poor coaching...one just happened to have more talent than the other.
 
Ayo said:
Expectations were partly so low heading into that year because we underachieved so much the year before going 11-20 (2-17). This isn't very complicated. Keep treasuring 2016-17 Wake Forest basketball, though!
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I agree, not what we are taking about though. The reason why expectations for that year were low doesn’t change the fact that Wake greatly exceeded them, contrary to the OP’s assertion.

I guess there is some wisdom in the viewpoint that to treasure something is merely to see it as it really is, nothing more, nothing less. That’s all I’ve ever tried to do with that (or any other) season.
 
RacerDeac said:
It's almost as if pre-season expectations/predictions don't mean nearly as much once you've seen a season play out. It's almost like you can reset expectations and adjust your definition of success once you've seen all of the pieces actually play together on the court. It's almost like Manning was the same coach in 16-17 as he was in 17-18. Both teams underachieved as a result of poor coaching...one just happened to have more talent than the other.
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1. It’s almost as if we were specifically talking about overachieving preseason expectations.

2. We saw all the major pieces of the 16-17 team play together on the court the prior season.

3. If the question you are trying to answer is “did this team achieve its potential,” then your approach makes sense. I’ve spent plenty of time explaining why I think that’s not the question to ask and why it’s a nearly impossible question to answer.
 
Ayo said:
Expectations were partly so low heading into that year because we underachieved so much the year before going 11-20 (2-17). This isn't very complicated. Keep treasuring 2016-17 Wake Forest basketball, though!
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hey man, we met RC's expectations in that 2015-16 season
 
Anyone who says that he expected Collins to develop the way he did (essentially over the last 3/4 of the season) is in the wrong line of work and wasting his time posting here.
 
thatguy2016 said:
hey man, we met RC's expectations in that 2015-16 season
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Manning certainly did not get the most out of the talent he had on that team, which is what Ayo is talking about I think. Nor did he meet the preseason predictions of most experts (which were low to begin with), which is what liveanddie is talking about. You are talking about something else entirely.

It’s almost like defining our terms (even though they have generally been clear from contex) would have been a useful exercise.
 
knowell said:
That game had me puking in the parking lot from sheer disgust.
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That’s... uh... colorful?

Consider me impressed that you still care enough to attend games when you are clearly negative on Manning and the direction of the program.

That’s not sarcasm.
 
DeacsATS said:
That’s... uh... colorful?

Consider me impressed that you still care enough to attend games when you are clearly negative on Manning and the direction of the program.

That’s not sarcasm.
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That may have been the last one I went to. That game broke me. Including the drive both ways, it is about a 7 hour time commitment. I just could not make myself do it again after watching a team so completely be the better team for 35 minutes just to spend the last five minutes on a 1-15 run.

I still watch on TV, but Manning will have to get a lot better for me to go back while he is still there.

I would rather watch an inferior team play hard and well than watch a talented throw up on themselves.
 
RChildress107 said:
How did all of the experts (including those self proclaimed ones on this message board) miss that Wake should have been a Sweet 16 team that year?
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2 reasons that I don't really need to explain to you. 11-20 the previous year. Manning under played the superstar freshman the year before. He did not under play him nearly as much that year.
 
knowell said:
2 reasons that I don't really need to explain to you. 11-20 the previous year. Manning under played the superstar freshman the year before. He did not under play him nearly as much that year.
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Right, but all the experts knew Collins was a future NBA All-Star (ignore his recruiting ranking for the moment) who was inexplicably underplayed but that Manning would have no option but to play him as many minutes as possible the next year so surely they factored that into their analysis.

Joking aside, I’m pretty sure Kenpom actually did that, and still came up with a projection well below where we ended up.
 
RC’s whole “people didn’t think Collins was underrated” shtick is one of his worst and more inaccurate arguments.
 
PhDeac said:
RC’s whole “people didn’t think Collins was underrated” shtick is one of his worst and more inaccurate arguments.
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Just from one game thread I brought up -- Collins's second game of his career vs. Bucknell.

TwentyONE said:
I think manning is just slow playing Collins. We can all see how promising he is. If manning wants earn every minute in practice, elimating bad habits, establishing defensive fundamentals, etc. I'm fine with it. His time will come obviously. Probably sooner than later.
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wfu22fan said:
What's worse is that Manning takes Collins out right after he gets in a groove. Hard to figure, particularly when Obrien takes his place .
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LOL, Grant O'Brien replaced John Collins in a basketball game.
Fuck Your Couch said:
that makes sense, thanks. was wishful thinking as i didn't see any of the game

was o'brien playing the 4 when he played? because i can't think of any reason to play him 9 minutes when John Collins only played 12 minutes and was highly productive in those minutes other than manning trying to send a message to Collins. Van Horn makes a bit more sense as he's the only guard on the bench. we're stacked enough in the post to not have to play a walk-on there, unless o'brien was gettin spot minutes at the 3 where we're also thin.
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wfu22fan said:
Got to find a way to get Collins on the court. He's our second best player ( behind Devin). He looks like the best forward recruit since Johnson and Aminu and better than most others over the past 30 years.
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wfu22fan said:
When Collins blossoms into a star at WFU, lots of you guys will be eating crow.
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Ayo said:
Holy shit, Collins. That was an NBA-type move. Dude just looks like he's gonna bounce out of the gym.
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TownieDeac said:
He's going to be really good.
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