I am going to eat shit on this thread for a bit, but Wellman is no dummy. Now, that doesn't prevent him for making the wrong hire (bzd), the wrong decision in a moment of crisis/tragedy (Dino), but we do not know who turned us down prior to Manning (except for RJ).
The thing a lot of posters on here can afford to ignore is timing and perception of the program. We all want instant gratification. I love bread. I want to eat it whenever I see it. I want to drink it in liquid form from lunch to late. I, like I assume a lot of you, have learned to control that want in order to stay relatively fit and healthy.
You want a good next coach? You give Manning another year. You want another 5-year stretch of middling results, fire him 6 weeks ago. The thing Bzd did to our program was take the magnetism out of the program. It is a hard sell these days to get a kid to consider Wake, despite CP3. Bzd did that. Wellman did that via Bzd. Manning has had to make it a place to desire. He had to do that with style pf play. And his narrative. Unfortunately, it is a job that seems to reward the charismatic guy at the end of the bar who tells just fucking awesome stories. The Billy Donovans, the Rick Pitinos. Some of those guys are also great coaches. Some are not. Manning is most definitely NOT in the charismatic part of the family tree. Which makes him have to work extra hard. He needs an assistant with some flaws, though morally okay to good, who can fill that role. Not sure if we have that guy on staff right now, but I would assume Jones comes the closest.
Anywho - we are adding a consensus 5-star player next year who really really wants to be one-and-done. If he and Craw and 4 or 5 others lead us to 18-20 wins and an NCAA birth, well that will be fun and Manning will have earned himself another year and some momentum - the type of momentum we SEEM to have squandered after John Collins sophomore year happened (but did it? Collins begat Hoard IMO). I do think that needs to parlay into a 2019 signing that hasn't yet happened. Which will tough. But if we win 14 games or 16 games, Hoard leaves and we make no post season, I think Wellman will fire Manning with a better chance at hiring the next great coach. Even then, to be perfectly blunt, it won't be an ideal situation. Not unless Coach K decides to hang up the grecian formula and/or Roy Williams takes his god dern act into retirement opening an opportunity at Wake for a young coach to think he might be able to turn Wake into the next Duke ...
So to summarize. Cutting the Manning cord after Year 4 a year removed from the John Collins year would have resulted in our 3rd or 4th choice hire. While there are no guarantees that next year would be any better, I think most coaches considering Wake would be on board with a firing after two shitty years in a row. Despite starting this post with a pro-Wellman nod, the man in the way of the NEXT great Wake coaching hire is Wellman himself. Not because he is an idiot, but because if I am a hot young coach, I see an old man at AD that is going to be gone in 5 years or less. Where does that leave me? If Wellman DOES fire Manning at the end of next year, I hope he has the good sense to step down himself. I doubt he will, but that would be the best result as far as a new coach is concerned.
I have learned from being a Spurs fan, to enjoy the ride. Most great seasons will not result in a Final 4. That doesn't make the year NOT fun. This past year was not fun. Manning cannot afford a 2nd unfun year in a row or he is gone.