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Preakness Saturday

RJKarl

RJKarl

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This is the forgotten Triple Crown race. It's also important to understand that 50% of favorites win this race. Typically, 32-38% of favorites win.

It's going to be a very short field. It looks like eight will start and a few really suck.

Justify is the logical 2/5 (bet $5 to win $2) favorite. With the short field, unless lightning strikes, even the trifecta is unlikely to pay much. I will be looking at a Pick 4 with Justify as a single. This also means you can't go really deep in the other races as you may not cover your bet. I will likely do something like 4x4x4x1 ($32); 4x5x4x1 ($40) or maybe even 3x5x5x1 ($37.50).

If there is a Pick 5, that could be bet as well.

Barring a miracle, Justify will win.
 
Here's the draw:

POST HORSE ODDS
1 Quip 12-1

2 Lone Sailor 15-1

3 Sporting Chance 30-1

4 Diamond King 30-1

5 Good Magic 3-1

6 Tenfold 20-1

7 Justfty 1-2

8 Bravazo 20-1

Bolt D'Oro is out. Justify's post position is perfect.
 
I'm picking three horses to place and show. Justify won't add value, and if lightning strikes, my place bet on the winner will pay nicely.
 
If Justify comes in second, your price will be exactly the same as if he wins. Let's say $1,000,000 is bet in the place pool. They take out 18-22% (depending on the state). Let's take the middle amount of 20%. This leaves $800,000 for the bettors. The minimum place/show payouts are $2.10 for $2. It wouldn't be unusual for Justify to have $750,000 to place. Thus, to pay out his $2.10, they would need about $787,500. This means the other place horse would have $12,500 to satisfy his bettors. If the horse had $12,000 bet on him to place, you'd get $2.10. To get $3 to place in this scenario, your horse would have to have about $8000 total bet on him to place out of $1,000,000.

Given the short field, the only way you'd get your money back on show is if Justify is out of the money. He will likely create a negative pool to show. If he's in the money, it's unlikely anyone will pay over $3 to show with Justify in the money.
 
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I'll be betting fives instead of fifties then.
 
I'll be getting the form tonight. I'm guessing my bet for the Preakness will be a Pick 4 or Pick 5.

If there is another odds on horse in one of those races I may just watch or do something silly like 8x8x1x1 and hope for a longshot. That would cost $32. If I can get it down to two horses in one race, I might do a 7x7x2x1 for $49.
 
According to weather.com, there is a 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms on Saturday.

Given the Justify will be on or near the lead, he should be helped by the wet track.
 
Going to box in an exacta of Justify at 1-2, Tenfold at 20-1 & Quip at 12-1. Maybe even looking to box them in for a trifecta with Good Magic at 3-1.
 
Justify/Quip will probably pay about $8-10.

A Justify/Quip/Good Magic tri will pay under $15.
 
It's now 100% chance of rain/thunderstorms tomorrow. Arguably, Justify's two best races are on very bad tracks.

I wonder if they will take the 11th off the turf. That could impact the Pick 4. At first glimpse, the P4 looks too chalky. There may be a 20-1 out there.
 
sorry, it's going to be so late, but I won't know what my Pick 4 and Pick 5 will look like until I see how bad the weather is and if the races will be taken off the turf.

The Pick 5 will start at about 3:25 EDT in the 9th Race. The Pick 4 will be off at 4:05 EDT in the 10th Race.

Each will end with the 12th, The Preakness as a single with Justify. Right now it looks like only two horses in the 10th #5/#9
 
Lots of scratches . One of the races in P4/P5 is on dirt rather than turf.

Justify is 2/5 in early betting. I won't be surprised if he goes off at 2/5 or 1/5.
 
Here's a $22.50 Pick 4 ($0.50)

Race 10 - 3,4,5,8,9
Race 11 - 4,7,11
Race 12 - 8,10,11
Race 13 - 7

If you add a horse to the 10th, it only increases the bet to $27.

If you add a horse to either the 11th or 12, you increase the bet to $30.
 
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Rain is what is happening now. Rain is supposed to take a break for a few hours this afternoon, then start again.
 
It's going to be wet.

Pick 5 - $45

Race 9 - 3,4,8
Race 10 - 3,4,5,8,9
Race 11- 4,7,11
Race 12 - 8,11
Race 13 - 7

If you aren't a customer of TVG.com , you can get 10/1 on Justify by signing up today. I'm guessing the max bet on this will be $5 or $10.
 
Talk about chalky so far, the highest paying winner in the first seven races at Pimlico is $6.20. The highest exacta has been $33.
 
the Pick 4 has a $2M guarantee. This should make the payouts a little better.
 
Going with 3,4,5,7 Trifecta and Exacta $2 box. At least I'll be dry.
 
As long as Justify wins, I hope you win.

I need 3,4,5,8 or 9 to win this race.

There was a $0.50 Pick 3 earlier that paid $3.05. :)
 
76 can you bet on TVG.com in your state?

If so, you can bet $10 to Win on him and get 10/1 if you haven't signed up before today.
 
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