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Thread: Belmont Stakes SAturday - Triple Crown for Justify?

  1. #1
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Belmont Stakes SAturday - Triple Crown for Justify?

    Here's the draw and morning line:

    POST HORSE ODDS
    1 Justify 4-5

    2 Free Drop Billy 30-1

    3 Bravazo 8-1

    4 Hofburg 9-2

    5 Restoring Hope 30-1

    6 Gronkowski 12-1

    7 Tenfold 12-1

    8 Vino Rosso 8-1

    9 Noble Indy 30-1

    10 Blended Citizen 15-1


    The rail is not bad for Justify as he will be going for the lead. His biggest worry is that someone might want to cook him on the lead to stop a Triple Crown like they did to Smarty Jones.

    Hofburg was the wise guy horse in the KY Derby. Trainer Bill Mott never rushes his horses. He rarely has Derby starters, yet he put this horse into the race with only three previous starts. Bringing him back for the Belmont is also curious. If the race breaks down, he has a shot.

    Bravazo may have beaten Justify if the Preakness was another furlong. He has the best shot here, but not if Justify is given an easy lead.

    Vino Rosso loves NY, but isn't that good.

    Tenfold is the hot horse. Like his daddy, Curlin (who was a late bloomer), he appears to be getting better. He could be in the mix.

    Gronkowski will get extra bets due to his name and a couple of decent races in Europe. Not sure about his comp.

    It's counter-intuitive to think that a horse can lead and win a 1 1/2 mile race, but it often happens.

    Right now, it looks like a Justify/Bravazo exacta again, but that won't pay much. Maybe Tenfold for second.

    We'll look more later. I may be looking at a Pick 4 again.

  2. #2
    After betting $72 to get $25 at the Preakness, I'm hoping for a rebound Saturday. I'm going with 1,3,7,8 Exacta and Trifecta boxes. Things could change at the window, but I'll start here.

  3. #3
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    If Justify wins, you'll be lucky to get $24 back. If he's up the track, you'll be looking good.

    The Preakness was a much, much tougher race on Justify than the KY Derby. He had to work a lot harder.

  4. #4
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    If anyone is going and wants some other picks, feel free to ask or PM me.

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    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    As you can tell, I'm not really excited about this race. The main question is - did the Preakness take too much out of Justify?

    I like a repeat of the Preakness with a $20 Justify/Bravazo exacta and reverse it for about $10.

    Maybe a $10 Justify/Hofburg with a $4 reverse.

    I'll be looking at a Pick 4 in the AM. It looks too chalky to be excited about it. First time through, I couldn't find an 8+-1 horse to include. The only hope would be if Bravazo beats Justify.

  6. #6
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Pick 4 - $36

    Race 8 - 1,3,7
    Race 9 - 1,2,3,10
    Race 10 - 1,3,10
    Race 11 - 1,3 (Belmont)

  7. #7
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    I'd feel bad if Hofburg and Bravazo make the exacta...so a $5 box on them.

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  9. #9
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Fuck Grankowski!

    WTG Justify!

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    Fuck Grankowski!

    WTG Justify!
    Wire to wire, what a performance. It really looked like he was toying with them out there, what a horse!!!

  11. #11
    Bzzz is a fucking loser Arsene Wenger's Avatar
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    How much did RJs wagers earn?

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    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Today nothing...I lost....

    DAMN Gronkowski!

    And my jockeys in the 10th.

    That's why they call it gambling.

    We saw early why Baffert brought the second horse. He made it impossible for Noble Indy to try to run Justify into the ground.

    Justify will likely run once (maybe a second training race) before the Breeders Cup Classic.

    I would not be shocked to see Baffert have the top three choices in the BC Classic. If McKinsie is healthy, he could challenge Justify. Axe Man looks like a budding monster.

  13. #13
    Dickie Hemric
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    I was at the Belmont, fun event - my 8 year old kid put a $5 WPS on Gronkowski, paid out $50. I lost all my bets.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by DaDeacs View Post
    I was at the Belmont, fun event - my 8 year old kid put a $5 WPS on Gronkowski, paid out $50. I lost all my bets.
    LOL, out of the mouth of babes...

  15. #15
    Boomer Boy Shorty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaDeacs View Post
    I was at the Belmont, fun event - my 8 year old kid put a $5 WPS on Gronkowski, paid out $50. I lost all my bets.
    Looking forward to your 8 year olds Kentucky Derby thread next spring.

  16. #16
    No more question about it. Great horse.

  17. #17
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    We haven't seen how good he is yet. He really hasn't been tested.

    Coolmore paid $75M for Justify's breeding rights. They can make that back in 1-2 years at $150,000 per service. It's possible that they will have Justify go to South America or maybe Australia to have a second season of stud fees in the southern hemisphere due to the opposite seasons.

  18. #18
    Down in flames! Never going to bet on a horse again. By the way, when's the Breeder's Cup?

  19. #19
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Nov. 2 & 3 at Churchill Downs.

    Because of their wins Saturday, Abel Tasman (F&M), Disco Partner (Turf Sprint) and Bee Jersey (Dirt Mile) are in their races at the Breeders Cup.

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