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NBA One & Done Rule

um, our advanced/smartest kids jump ahead to higher levels of education all the time

we're not talking about the average, we're talking about the highest skilled/most potential cases

LOL. Keep watching Doogie Howser on Hulu. And unless the NBA plan includes identifying only the top 10 or so prospects, there will be plenty of “average” talents declaring pro.
 
LOL. Keep watching Doogie Howser on Hulu. And unless the NBA plan includes identifying only the top 10 or so prospects, there will be plenty of “average” talents declaring pro.

So? There’s only so many roster spots and while shitty teams are always going to err on the side of potential I don’t really see a mass wave of high schoolers plunging the game back into the Kobe era. An average high schooler declaring he is going pro doesn’t mean much if there’s not a team willing to sign him.

I do think they should go to 3-4 rounds and let teams draft players to their G-league team.
 
So, does a player have to graduate from high school to apply for the draft?

If a player applies for the draft out of high school, I assume he forfeits the opportunity to play in college if the draft doesn't go well?
 
So, does a player have to graduate from high school to apply for the draft?

If a player applies for the draft out of high school, I assume he forfeits the opportunity to play in college if the draft doesn't go well?

The first is up to the NBA. I would imagine the answer ends up being yes or age 19.

The second is up to the NCAA. I would imagine the answer ends up being yes but I hope they surprise me.
 
LOL. Keep watching Doogie Howser on Hulu. And unless the NBA plan includes identifying only the top 10 or so prospects, there will be plenty of “average” talents declaring pro.

dumb comment. if they fail, they fail, just like 4 year college stars bust hard occasionally.
 
So? There’s only so many roster spots and while shitty teams are always going to err on the side of potential I don’t really see a mass wave of high schoolers plunging the game back into the Kobe era. An average high schooler declaring he is going pro doesn’t mean much if there’s not a team willing to sign him.

I do think they should go to 3-4 rounds and let teams draft players to their G-league team.

But that gets you into the Robert Swift dilemma. It is difficult to know which high schoolers are average and which are superstars because, in addition to their young age, the level of competition across the country is not the same and AAU isn't great for recognizing play within a team. So it is extremely difficult for NBA scouts to accurately evaluate talent with all those variables. The 1 and done rule at least helps level the playing field during that one year. Not having that screening system increases the likelihood of errors.

The other thing that I can't figure out is whether a large expansion of the G-League would work. Minor league baseball works because most people go to a minor league baseball game because of the general relaxation and social experience of going to a summer baseball game, not because of the on-field product. I am currently a bigger NBA fan than MLB fan and have NBA season tix, but I go to minor league baseball games all the time and I don't see myself really ever going to a G-league game. If the G-league is not self-sufficient then the NBA would have to subsidize it, and I'm not sure I see the players union going along with that.
 
But that gets you into the Robert Swift dilemma. It is difficult to know which high schoolers are average and which are superstars because, in addition to their young age, the level of competition across the country is not the same and AAU isn't great for recognizing play within a team. So it is extremely difficult for NBA scouts to accurately evaluate talent with all those variables. The 1 and done rule at least helps level the playing field during that one year. Not having that screening system increases the likelihood of errors.

The other thing that I can't figure out is whether a large expansion of the G-League would work. Minor league baseball works because most people go to a minor league baseball game because of the general relaxation and social experience of going to a summer baseball game, not because of the on-field product. I am currently a bigger NBA fan than MLB fan and have NBA season tix, but I go to minor league baseball games all the time and I don't see myself really ever going to a G-league game. If the G-league is not self-sufficient then the NBA would have to subsidize it, and I'm not sure I see the players union going along with that.

Meh, NBA teams have more tools at their disposal to evaluate high schoolers now than they did in 2004. Everyone does. The high end of the recruiting rankings have a pretty high hit rate in terms of those guys being NBA contributors. An academy system would work better for NBA teams but the shoe companies that run AAU won’t allow it. I get the concern, but at the end of the day that’s on poorly run teams (which is why I get your concern especially).

And there is no need to expand the G league. Guys will just go in and out of it one year sooner.
 
Meh? NBA scouts miss on college players and European players who play against good competition. You can't sit here and say they're going to do a better job of evaluating high school players.
 
U think one of the interesting things about both college and nba recruiting/ scouting is that every high school kid recruited is essentially a goto star for their team. Most kids have to adjust to filling a role. Many don't do that well. There are a number of players who take years to figure our what their ideal role is and how to fill it. Bruce Bowen. Mario elite. Vince askew. Anthony mason. All were high school dude but fairly hard to predict which figure it out
 
Some data from MLB on high school vs. college 1st Round draft picks: https://www.numberfire.com/mlb/news...-draft-prospects-better-than-high-school-ones

Conclusion: college draftees were much more successful

That would seem like a no-brained conclusion. The accuracy of an evaluation of a player’s potential will increase the later in a player’s career it is made.

If NBA GMs really want to protect themselves they should make the age limit 24. Then the Clippers wouldn’t have stupidly taken Blake Griffin over Steph Curry in 2009.
 
So what NBA problem is the NBA trying to fix by allowing HS entrants?
 

PR seems pretty obvious. NBA has a good rep as a player’s league and ambassador for the game of basketball. Forcing guys to go overseas for a year to get paid for their work or to college for a year to work for free cuts against that.

Market share is really two things. It’s 1. eliminating a self imposed restraint on competing for the best employees and 2. Hoping that stealing the best employees from college basketball will siphon off some of the basketball viewing market (and thus revenue).

The NBA seems to view the G-League as an alternative to and competitor with NCAA basketball. If you are an NBA fan that wants to watch or follow future prospects you primarily watch or follow college basketball. Allowing the best future prospects to go directly to the G-league will help change that.
 
NBA One & Done Rule

So all of a sudden in 2018, the NBA is worried that they’re losing a PR battle by not having kids straight out of HS.

And all of a sudden, the NBA is trying to grab market share from college basketball?

Since when did either become a real problem? NBA PR has improved significantly since instituting one and done. College basketball is weaker. Either way, the NBA has always coexisted with college basketball and ESPN seems pleased to broadcast plenty of both.
 
One possibility is the NBA is getting out ahead of the sticky NCAA labor/payment issues by addressing its own labor gray areas and ramping up the infrastructure for a better minor league system than one tied to academics.
 
That makes sense.
 
So all of a sudden in 2018, the NBA is worried that they’re losing a PR battle by not having kids straight out of HS.

And all of a sudden, the NBA is trying to grab market share from college basketball?

Since when did either become a real problem? NBA PR has improved significantly since instituting one and done. College basketball is weaker. Either way, the NBA has always coexisted with college basketball and ESPN seems pleased to broadcast plenty of both.

Something doesn’t have to be a real problem in order for a business to address it or make a change. In fact the best businesses don’t spend a ton of time addressing real problems because they avoid them in the first place by thinking ahead. The NBA under Silver has never struck me as complacent, they are deliberate though. Neither of these things happened all of a sudden. This isn’t some huge change to the league or the game, but it will improve both.

It also happens to be the right thing to do.
 
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