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NBA One & Done Rule

NBA One & Done Rule

I understand why the NBA is making the move, but I think it dilutes the NBA and hurts college basketball. It is hard to argue for requiring 1 or 2 years out of high school in a free market economy, but from a strict ROI for both industries I believe they are throwing away a ton of value.

G League will never compete with NCAA basketball because people will never have loyalty to it. Loyalty drives viewership. The focus of silver and the NCAA should always be to develop fan loyalty. That is how you will drive revenue (which no matter what they say, is always the point of any move that is made).
 
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hard to see how any NBA rule change could make the hoops situation at Wake worse

as far as diluting basketball and hurting our program, we are well ahead of both the NBA and the NCAA
 
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Wrangor said:
I understand why the NBA is making the move, but I think it dilutes the NBA and hurts college basketball. It is hard to argue for requiring 1 or 2 years out of high school in a free market economy, but from a strict ROI for both industries I believe they are throwing away a ton of value.

G League will never compete with NCAA basketball because people will never have loyalty to it. Loyalty drives viewership. The focus of silver and the NCAA should always be to develop fan loyalty. That is how you will drive revenue (which no matter what they say, is always the point of any move that is made).
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Diluting the NBA is an overwrought concern. Allowing high schoolers to enter the draft only dilutes the NBA product if teams are drafting guys who aren’t ready in the first round and playing them immediately.

NBA teams are much better able to evaluate high schoolers now than they were 15 years ago. There is more video readily available and analytics to project out from AAU stats exist. NBA teams are scouting these guys almost as early as college coaches. I also think teams have gotten smarter in general about what makes a good NBA player and how to build out a roster. The league as a whole has closed the gap with the Spurs in this regard.

The G-league is also in a totally different place and is ready to serve as a higher quality development league for elite kids coming out of high school. And the G-league absolutely has the potential to build fan loyalty and take some of college basketball’s market share. I’m not saying UNC fans are going to stop watching UNC basketball in order to follow the Hornets G-league team. But Hornets fans that casually watch Carolina basketball might.

As far as diluting NCAA, I’m not sure that the NBA should care about that. If anything it forces the NCAA to deal with its shit.
 
RChildress107 said:
Diluting the NBA is an overwrought concern. Allowing high schoolers to enter the draft only dilutes the NBA product if teams are drafting guys who aren’t ready in the first round and playing them immediately.

NBA teams are much better able to evaluate high schoolers now than they were 15 years ago. There is more video readily available and analytics to project out from AAU stats exist. NBA teams are scouting these guys almost as early as college coaches. I also think teams have gotten smarter in general about what makes a good NBA player and how to build out a roster. The league as a whole has closed the gap with the Spurs in this regard.

The G-league is also in a totally different place and is ready to serve as a higher quality development league for elite kids coming out of high school. And the G-league absolutely has the potential to build fan loyalty and take some of college basketball’s market share. I’m not saying UNC fans are going to stop watching UNC basketball in order to follow the Hornets G-league team. But Hornets fans that casually watch Carolina basketball might.

As far as diluting NCAA, I’m not sure that the NBA should care about that. If anything it forces the NCAA to deal with its shit.
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Sorry - but during March Madness you have 20 year old girls painting their faces and going crazy over a no-name shooter hitting a three merely because that person has their college's name on the front of their jersey. You will never see anywhere close to that kind of fandom in the G-League. You will only have actual basketball fans watching it, and the number of actual basketball fans is immensely less than the number of viewers of March Madness and those attending college basketball games on a Saturday night. No one is going to graduate from G-League Hornets. They have no reason to care, and that is why the numbers will always be mediocre to terrible on that platform. When is the last time you watched a minor league baseball game on TV? The only people who attend minor league games are residence of that specific town, and even then the attendance numbers are putrid overall. You have a few AAA teams, or just really well run minor league teams that put out a good product and maintain a good following, but in large they have zero following outside a small loyal base (the true believers).

College basketball brings in the outsider to the game, and creates a following. Kevin Durant's one year at Texas bought him millions of fans that he would have never had, and that the NBA would have never acquired without his year at Texas. I will reiterate that from a free market perspective, it is difficult to argue that preventing high schoolers who WOULD get drafted, from entering the NBA is good for the individual (I won't even try), but from the standpoint of the NBA and college basketball, it is extremely beneficial to have these players play at least one (and I would make the argument that the number is 2) year(s) of college basketball before being eligible for the draft.
 
RChildress107 said:
Diluting the NBA is an overwrought concern. Allowing high schoolers to enter the draft only dilutes the NBA product if teams are drafting guys who aren’t ready in the first round and playing them immediately.

NBA teams are much better able to evaluate high schoolers now than they were 15 years ago. There is more video readily available and analytics to project out from AAU stats exist. NBA teams are scouting these guys almost as early as college coaches. I also think teams have gotten smarter in general about what makes a good NBA player and how to build out a roster. The league as a whole has closed the gap with the Spurs in this regard.

The G-league is also in a totally different place and is ready to serve as a higher quality development league for elite kids coming out of high school. And the G-league absolutely has the potential to build fan loyalty and take some of college basketball’s market share. I’m not saying UNC fans are going to stop watching UNC basketball in order to follow the Hornets G-league team. But Hornets fans that casually watch Carolina basketball might.

As far as diluting NCAA, I’m not sure that the NBA should care about that. If anything it forces the NCAA to deal with its shit.
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I could convince my girl to go a minor league baseball game. No way in hell I could ever get us to a G League game, I feel like the same is true for lots of people.
 
RC, you said PR and market share.

He said labor and infrastructure.

That's different.

Wrangor is right. It's hard to see how this doesn't make college basketball and the NBA worse unless they take steps to mitigate against that. The NBA could select a small number of eligible HS kids. The NCAA could allow HS kids to commit to a program if they're not on selected as eligible. And the NCAA could allow students to return to school if they don't get drafted.
 
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The old CBA lasted for all those years (until Zeke bankrupted it by his horrific management), because it was in small towns. The G-League will be a money guzzler in NBA cities as there are better basketball and other entertainment options. The G-League's best option is to stop being in NBA suburbs.
 
Wrangor said:
Sorry - but during March Madness you have 20 year old girls painting their faces and going crazy over a no-name shooter hitting a three merely because that person has their college's name on the front of their jersey. You will never see anywhere close to that kind of fandom in the G-League. You will only have actual basketball fans watching it, and the number of actual basketball fans is immensely less than the number of viewers of March Madness and those attending college basketball games on a Saturday night. No one is going to graduate from G-League Hornets. They have no reason to care, and that is why the numbers will always be mediocre to terrible on that platform. When is the last time you watched a minor league baseball game on TV? The only people who attend minor league games are residence of that specific town, and even then the attendance numbers are putrid overall. You have a few AAA teams, or just really well run minor league teams that put out a good product and maintain a good following, but in large they have zero following outside a small loyal base (the true believers).

College basketball brings in the outsider to the game, and creates a following. Kevin Durant's one year at Texas bought him millions of fans that he would have never had, and that the NBA would have never acquired without his year at Texas. I will reiterate that from a free market perspective, it is difficult to argue that preventing high schoolers who WOULD get drafted, from entering the NBA is good for the individual (I won't even try), but from the standpoint of the NBA and college basketball, it is extremely beneficial to have these players play at least one (and I would make the argument that the number is 2) year(s) of college basketball before being eligible for the draft.
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1. Of course not. But knowing 80% of the college basketball fans that you don’t already have watching the NBA are probably ungettable doesn’t mean you don’t go after the 20%.

2. That’s a valid point but it’s overstated. The 20-year old girl painting her face at a UT game didn’t become a 30 year old Warriors fan
 
RChildress107 said:
Forcing guys to go overseas for a year to get paid for their work or to college for a year to work for free cuts against that.

The NBA seems to view the G-League as an alternative to and competitor with NCAA basketball.
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JuiceCrewAllStar said:
One possibility is the NBA is

getting out ahead of the sticky NCAA labor/payment issues by addressing its own labor gray areas and

ramping up the infrastructure for a better minor league system than one tied to academics.
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PhDeac said:
RC, you said PR and market share.

He said labor and infrastructure.

That's different.

Wrangor is right. It's hard to see how this doesn't make college basketball and the NBA worse unless they take steps to mitigate against that. The NBA could select a small number of eligible HS kids. The NCAA could allow HS kids to commit to a program if they're not on selected as eligible. And the NCAA could allow students to return to school if they don't get drafted.
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Whatever man. I get you are pissy about the Manning conversation but you don’t have to be a dick on every thread.

“Getting our ahead of labor gray areas” sounds a lot like PR (NBA has no legal exposure)

“Ramping up infrastructure for a better minor league system than one tied to academics” sounds a lot like a play to capture market share.

I get your and Wrangor’s concern about GMs repeating past mistakes with high school kids and explained why I think those concerns are unwarranted. Respond or don’t.

I don’t get why the NBA should be concerned about the NCAAs inability to make simple changes to help their student athletes and their product.
 
RJKarl said:
The old CBA lasted for all those years (until Zeke bankrupted it by his horrific management), because it was in small towns. The G-League will be a money guzzler in NBA cities as there are better basketball and other entertainment options. The G-League's best option is to stop being in NBA suburbs.
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Completely agree with that. A brief glance at the map looks like they are about halfway there
 
PhDeac said:
Wrangor is right. It's hard to see how this doesn't make college basketball and the NBA worse unless they take steps to mitigate against that. The NBA could select a small number of eligible HS kids. The NCAA could allow HS kids to commit to a program if they're not on selected as eligible. And the NCAA could allow students to return to school if they don't get drafted.
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I agree with that though I think they’ve taken a lot of steps already. As I mentioned earlier they will need to make changes to the rookie pay structure, salary cap impact of G-league players, and potentially the draft in order to incentivize or at least make it easy for a GM to send a young guy to the G-league for development.

I used to be on board with limiting the pool of high schoolers but any ideas to do that always seem arbitrary and unworkable. It’s easier to set up the market in such a way that it works itself out. The league shouldn’t be going too far out of its way to bail out bad GMs
 
It doesn’t have anything to do with bailing out bad GMs. It has everything to do with not wanting to draft an NBA player until he is somewhat competitive with the rest of the league.

You don’t hire a ceo, pay him 1,000,000 and then stick him in the mail room for 2 years. NBA contracts are guaranteed contracts. When you are using 1 of the 2 picks you receive each year, you want that person to be productive and if he isn’t productive you want some degree of certainty that he will be in the future.

Using a top 15 pick on a guy that might end up in the G league is suicide. 2 years of college weeds most of those problems out. Yeah the NBA might miss a year or two of productive play 15% of the time , but a large majority of the time they are able to evaluate and actually take the best player and not just the high school guy with the best vertical leap and size.
 
Wrangor said:
It doesn’t have anything to do with bailing out bad GMs. It has everything to do with not wanting to draft an NBA player until he is somewhat competitive with the rest of the league.

You don’t hire a ceo, pay him 1,000,000 and then stick him in the mail room for 2 years. NBA contracts are guaranteed contracts. When you are using 1 of the 2 picks you receive each year, you want that person to be productive and if he isn’t productive you want some degree of certainty that he will be in the future.

Using a top 15 pick on a guy that might end up in the G league is suicide. 2 years of college weeds most of those problems out. Yeah the NBA might miss a year or two of productive play 15% of the time , but a large majority of the time they are able to evaluate and actually take the best player and not just the high school guy with the best vertical leap and size.
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Teams don’t have to draft someone who’s not ready to contribute in a way the team wants them to contribute. Your entire post reads like someone worried about a bad GM making a bad decision.
 
not any time soon, but it isn't impossible to imagine a future where college basketball:G-Leage::college baseball:minor leagues

unfortunately, also not impossible to image a future where e-sports approach serious cultural relevance
 
NBA One & Done Rule

There aren’t enough Wellmans to screw up college basketball that bad.
 
Pretty much every article I can find shows that NCAA basketball viewing is down, especially in the regular season. Anecdotally, I never watch non-Wake college basketball and I used to watch a lot. Quality of play is down and there are so many more entertainment options. It really isn't that hard to imagine it becoming a niche thing.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
Pretty much every article I can find shows that NCAA basketball viewing is down, especially in the regular season. Anecdotally, I never watch non-Wake college basketball and I used to watch a lot. Quality of play is down and there are so many more entertainment options. It really isn't that hard to imagine it becoming a niche thing.
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Oh sure. But I can't see college basketball viewership dropping enough to make that comparison. Of those four entities, college basketball will easily be the most popular and the G-League will probably be the least popular.
 
PhDeac said:
Oh sure. But I can't see college basketball viewership dropping enough to make that comparison. Of those four entities, college basketball will easily be the most popular and the G-League will probably be the least popular.
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This is probably true for the foreseeable future. I do think the G-league will get more tv or online viewership than minor league baseball, but doubt they will match attendance levels (I’m basing that solely on Durham Bulls games).
 
Yeah. That's fair. But minor league baseball has never had much of a TV presence. I guess much of that is because it's baseball.
 
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