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Report: Kavanaugh won’t commit to recusal from Trump/Mueller related matters

birdman said:
Well, that's actually not true in the case. I think that jbug is asserting that we have one accusation from 36 years ago and then 35 straight years without an accusation...so the data set in his mind that looks like 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0. Sure, coming up with 35 straight 0s depends on how hard you look, i.e. What's the probability that some of those 0s are 1 but you just didn't detect them? We don't know, but no other accusations have come up, unlike in the Roy Moore or the Franken cases...the longer we go with out detecting another 1 the less likely that the one 1 we have is a true positive...that is not a flawed argument from a probability theory perspective. I actually just co-authored a paper on false positive detection probability in a bird banding study, in those data if we had an individual that was seen once and never seen again for 35 times, it is highly likely that that individual is dead, or that it was never really there to begin with.
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How would you compare the probability of not seeing a bird that exists with not seeing an account of sexual assault that exists?
 
cville deac said:
Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Both sides are dug in and adamant, and he'll still be confirmed. And I'm not sure if it makes any difference this Fall. Heitkamp and Donnelly probably still have to vote yea and are not thrilled she's testifying.
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Fair point about Heitkamp and Donnelly but this circus will be a net negative for Republicans (barring evidence showing Ford is lying). You’re going to have 10 old white guys (or a female prosecutor of their choosing which might be a tad bit better but still not great) questioning this poor woman about a sexual assault and trying to destroy her credibility.

On top of that - and even more painful for Republicans - there is zero chance Trump continues to show the same type of “restraint” that he’s shown so far. This has the potential to turn ugly really quickly. And if it gets ugly enough, pubs won’t get their 2nd Supreme Court pick and will simultaneously look like dirtbags to independent voters.
 
deactherunner said:
How would you compare the probability of not seeing a bird that exists with not seeing an account of sexual assault that exists?
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Obviously the bird is harder to detect, especially right now; it's a detectability issue. How likely is it that one or more of those zeros is a false negative? The argument hinges on that false negative probability being low, very low. It's not crazy to say that with each day that passes without another accusation, the likelihood that those 0s are true 0s increases. I think that the detection probability of a Kavanaugh sexual assault is at its highest point right about now.

I am not saying that if nothing else emerges that it proves the one event from 36 years ago is false, I'm just saying that a stats person might conclude it is outside the boundaries of expected behavior for the given the rest of the data, that is, it raises the probability it was a false positive.
 
birdman said:
Obviously the bird is harder to detect, especially right now; it's a detectability issue. How likely is it that one or more of those zeros is a false negative? The argument hinges on that false negative probability being low, very low. It's not crazy to say that with each day that passes without another accusation, the likelihood that those 0s are true 0s increases. I think that the detection probability of a Kavanaugh sexual assault is at its highest point right about now.

I am not saying that if nothing else emerges that it proves the one event from 36 years ago is false, I'm just saying that a stats person might conclude it is outside the boundaries of expected behavior for the given the rest of the data, that is, it raises the probability it was a false positive.
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Alternatively, detection probability could be at its lowest point right now after the shit that Dr Ford has been dragged through.

If a bird is killed every time it’s detected, the smart bird would do everything to stay hidden.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Alternatively, detection probability could be at its lowest point right now after the shit that Dr Ford has been dragged through.

If a bird is killed every time it’s detected, the smart bird would do everything to stay hidden.
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Yeah maybe, but I think that someone coming out now, after the first person already mustered the courage and also during a Supreme Court confirmation process, is far more likely that it was two years ago when Kavanaugh wasn't in the news. So, I accept that maybe the highest point of Kavanaugh sexual assault detection was on Monday and Tuesday, before they started threatening to kill her family, but it is still higher now than it was two weeks ago and way higher than it was 2 years ago.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
Fair point about Heitkamp and Donnelly but this circus will be a net negative for Republicans (barring evidence showing Ford is lying). You’re going to have 10 old white guys (or a female prosecutor of their choosing which might be a tad bit better but still not great) questioning this poor woman about a sexual assault and trying to destroy her credibility.

On top of that - and even more painful for Republicans - there is zero chance Trump continues to show the same type of “restraint” that he’s shown so far. This has the potential to turn ugly really quickly. And if it gets ugly enough, pubs won’t get their 2nd Supreme Court pick and will simultaneously look like dirtbags to independent voters.
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I agree with your point that Trump could end up pouring gasoline on the dumpster fire and make it worse. But I think senate Pubs will be more delicate now than they were with Anita Hill. I still remember driving down to the beach with a friend and listening to that hearing. We'd crack up every time we heard Orrin Hatch say Long Dong Silver. My memory says they weren't bleeping anything. That hearing was pretty good for comic relief. But do you really thing there is a good chance that Kavanaugh withdraws or isn't confirmed on a nay vote? Maybe I'm too cynical, but I'm not seeing it. Pubs will paint it as it wasn't him, or it was drunk reveling that went too far, and besides, he was a teenager. All of us did bad things when we were teenagers, and that'll satisfy at least 40-45% of the country. And I still don't see this hearing as a needle pusher in the midterms. To me, it's not a Roy Moore situation. Moore was a pedophile who disgusted all the Trump voting Pubs I know, including my family members. Whereas Kavanaugh may have done something wrong as a drunk teen 35 years ago.

Runner, Heitkamp and Donnelly are Dems in ruby red states (and still stand a good chance of being reelected - Donnelly presently has a small edge and Heitkamp is a coin toss). If either votes nay, there will be plenty of ads on TV reminding ND and IN voters of those votes. I still believe this is an uncomfortable week for them, and they wish this hearing would just go away.
 
CNN (of course!) does a quick "focus group" with what they implied were typical suburban Florida GOP women about Professor Ford's accusations against Kavanaugh. They all basically said "what's the big deal?" and more or less claimed that virtually all teen boys do these types of things. Apparently, it's come out that nearly all of these supposedly "typical" women CNN used in the focus group actually work for the Florida GOP, some are GOP Latina politicians, and CNN never divulged that, but left the implication that they were just typical suburban housewives. The link to the CNN article, and the information about the real backgrounds of the women in the focus group, is below.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/09/21/gop-women-kavanaugh-christine-blasey-ford-florida-kaye-pkg-ac-vpx.cnn

Information about CNN focus group members: https://twitter.com/realshawnbrandt/status/1043142058637254658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
 
Highland Deac said:
CNN (of course!) does a quick "focus group" with what they implied were typical suburban Florida GOP women about Professor Ford's accusations against Kavanaugh. They all basically said "what's the big deal?" and more or less claimed that virtually all teen boys do these types of things. Apparently, it's come out that nearly all of these supposedly "typical" women CNN used in the focus group actually work for the Florida GOP, some are GOP Latina politicians, and CNN never divulged that, but left the implication that they were just typical suburban housewives. The link to the CNN article, and the information about the real backgrounds of the women in the focus group, is below.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/09/21/gop-women-kavanaugh-christine-blasey-ford-florida-kaye-pkg-ac-vpx.cnn

Information about CNN focus group members: https://twitter.com/realshawnbrandt/status/1043142058637254658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Good job mainstream leftist media.
 
I used to like Graham. He’s one of the politicians I follow on Twitter. The last year has been a rapid decline for him into full on trump support. I look forward to one day learning the true reason why he’s done this, although I’m 90% sure he just decided it was the only way to get re-elected.
 
wakelaw13 said:
I used to like Graham. He’s one of the politicians I follow on Twitter. The last year has been a rapid decline for him into full on trump support. I look forward to one day learning the true reason why he’s done this, although I’m 90% sure he just decided it was the only way to get re-elected.
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90% certainly seems low. It’s exactly why he has done that. Republican voters love Trump. He demands that other pols love him too.
 
wakelaw13 said:
I used to like Graham. He’s one of the politicians I follow on Twitter. The last year has been a rapid decline for him into full on trump support. I look forward to one day learning the true reason why he’s done this, although I’m 90% sure he just decided it was the only way to get re-elected.
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Ever since he golfed with Trump, he's gone out of his way to be a Trump apologist at all times. And now that the one semi-check on all GOP Senators is dead, there's nothing stopping him from embracing Trump's despicable nature fully.
 
The other 10% is some type of hope that he’s playing the long game to stay in a position of authority. But I think the above posts are correct. The most painful part was watching him turn his back on McCain. I’m certainly no republican, but like to think I can respect those with whom I disagree. That’s becoming impossible and it’s not my fault.
 
wakelaw13 said:
The other 10% is some type of hope that he’s playing the long game to stay in a position of authority. But I think the above posts are correct. The most painful part was watching him turn his back on McCain. I’m certainly no republican, but like to think I can respect those with whom I disagree. That’s becoming impossible and it’s not my fault.
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This is how I feel and I am a Republican.
 
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