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2018 NFL Season ends: Patriots win Superbowl!

3 of the 4 teams would be fun to watch in the Super Bowl. Please god don't let that other team win.
 
DeacsATS said:
Wagered on all 4 favorites this weekend... And, of course, put the most down on the one that didn't cover.

Still better than last week's 0-3-1 performance when I took 3 home teams and SEA.

Saw the Saints opened -3.5 over the Rams, with the Chiefs -3 over the Patriots. Have to say that I like both of the favorites again next week.
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I wasn't betting but was baffled by this past weekend, whereas I picked better the 1st week. Why did you bet the favorites against the line this weekend? To me, the Colts, Chargers and Eagles were the hottest teams over the last 3 months, and the home teams were faltering a bit down the stretch. The Eagles played hard and covered - may have won outright had Cox not gotten banged up because he was dominating the interior of the Saints OL. But the Chargers and Colts were totally shut down by 1 pretty solid D and 1 pourous D. You often tend to like dogs, and it's pretty rare to have both conference finals with both of the 1 and 2 seeds remaining. What did you see going into the weekend to stick with the favorites this past week and again next week?
 
cville deac said:
I wasn't betting but was baffled by this past weekend, whereas I picked better the 1st week. Why did you bet the favorites against the line this weekend? To me, the Colts, Chargers and Eagles were the hottest teams over the last 3 months, and the home teams were faltering a bit down the stretch. The Eagles played hard and covered - may have won outright had Cox not gotten banged up because he was dominating the interior of the Saints OL. But the Chargers and Colts were totally shut down by 1 pretty solid D and 1 pourous D. You often tend to like dogs, and it's pretty rare to have both conference finals with both of the 1 and 2 seeds remaining. What did you see going into the weekend to stick with the favorites this past week and again next week?
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As the week went on and I heard commentary from friends (and other sources) that all of the lines were "too high" I started to get more interested in the favorites. There had also been some huge run w/ underdogs heading into the weekend... Something like 14 out of the last 15 dogs had covered (going back to last year, obviously). I generally operate on the assumption that most people are wrong... And groups of people in agreement are even more wrong.

But beyond that, I just thought all of the favorites were better teams, playing at home, and coming off a couple of weeks of rest. The Chargers had a great road record, but this was their 2nd east coast game in a row... And it is pretty rare to have such a small number on the Pats at home.

Of course, I liked the Saints more than any other favorite and that was the one that didn't cover, so whatever. Sometimes you get lucky (3-1 this week), sometimes you don't (0-3-1 last week).

I love the Chiefs this week. You have a Patriots team that looked as good as they've looked all season going on the road to play a KC team that has heard a ton about how they are going to choke. Patrick Mahomes seems like a guy who couldn't give a fuck about that stuff... In fact, he seems like a big stage kind of a guy. No doubt, the Patriots D will show him some looks he probably hasn't seen before, but I think he'll be able to handle it just fine. My bigger concern would be the KC defense stopping the Patriots... But that offense has been very average (or worse) on the road. Unless Chris Hogan magically becomes a deep threat again, or Gronk suddenly regains the ability to get separation, I don't think the Patriots will be able to keep pace w/ the KC offense.

Of course, I'll probably be wrong. It happens a lot. Hopefully just ~40% of the time (or less).
 
Wonder if Rivers is still talking trash about the Pats defenders he burned and abused yesterday.
 
DeacsATS said:
As the week went on and I heard commentary from friends (and other sources) that all of the lines were "too high" I started to get more interested in the favorites. There had also been some huge run w/ underdogs heading into the weekend... Something like 14 out of the last 15 dogs had covered (going back to last year, obviously). I generally operate on the assumption that most people are wrong... And groups of people in agreement are even more wrong.

But beyond that, I just thought all of the favorites were better teams, playing at home, and coming off a couple of weeks of rest. The Chargers had a great road record, but this was their 2nd east coast game in a row... And it is pretty rare to have such a small number on the Pats at home.

Of course, I liked the Saints more than any other favorite and that was the one that didn't cover, so whatever. Sometimes you get lucky (3-1 this week), sometimes you don't (0-3-1 last week).

I love the Chiefs this week. You have a Patriots team that looked as good as they've looked all season going on the road to play a KC team that has heard a ton about how they are going to choke. Patrick Mahomes seems like a guy who couldn't give a fuck about that stuff... In fact, he seems like a big stage kind of a guy. No doubt, the Patriots D will show him some looks he probably hasn't seen before, but I think he'll be able to handle it just fine. My bigger concern would be the KC defense stopping the Patriots... But that offense has been very average (or worse) on the road. Unless Chris Hogan magically becomes a deep threat again, or Gronk suddenly regains the ability to get separation, I don't think the Patriots will be able to keep pace w/ the KC offense.

Of course, I'll probably be wrong. It happens a lot. Hopefully just ~40% of the time (or less).
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Yeah, a friend and I are thinking of betting small sums once it becomes legal in VA, and I figure you gotta do 55-60% to offset the vig. So I enjoy reading your posts, and what I'm taking away is you largely follow what the masses are doing and then go in the other direction. Hope you're right about KC and NO. Weather in KC is supposed to be single digits, which I think could help NE because they have a better D and Belichick. And I'm worried about what Donald will do to the Saints' OL after Cox was destroying them till he got hurt.
 
If you bet the exact same amount on every game (which you won't) and the vig is always 10% (it does vary sometimes), a bettor that wins 52.4% of his bets breaks even. So, to "win", the bettor only needs to hit 52.5% or more of his bets assuming that all bets are for the same amount and the vig is always 10%: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/math/

FWIW, it sounds like ATS bet the home favorites in the WC (0-3-1) and Divisional (3-1) round. With that strategy, you are 3-3-1. He is sticking with that mantra for the Championship game as the Chiefs are favored by 3 at home next weekend. FWIW, also like the Chiefs and the Rams/Saints under 57.
 
It’s amazing that Brady still takes the slightest bit of criticism and somehow twists that into the underdog mantra.
 
Pilch's advice is with a -110 vig. Seems like some states are doing -115 or -120 (and worse on things like moneylines), especially ones with little sportsbook competition within the state
 
Pilchard said:
If you bet the exact same amount on every game (which you won't) and the vig is always 10% (it does vary sometimes), a bettor that wins 52.4% of his bets breaks even. So, to "win", the bettor only needs to hit 52.5% or more of his bets assuming that all bets are for the same amount and the vig is always 10%: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/math/

FWIW, it sounds like ATS bet the home favorites in the WC (0-3-1) and Divisional (3-1) round. With that strategy, you are 3-3-1. He is sticking with that mantra for the Championship game as the Chiefs are favored by 3 at home next weekend. FWIW, also like the Chiefs and the Rams/Saints under 57.
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3-4-1, actually... Ugh. I went home teams in round 1, except for SEA over DAL (which was a push). Liked HOU a lot and BAL/CHI a little.

I tend to be selective on games and generally play more dogs, but it has just felt like there is value in the favorites so far in these playoffs (hasn't really played out, though).

Definitely on KC. Not sure about NO/LA, but would lean Saints (only because of home field).
 
DeacsATS said:
As the week went on and I heard commentary from friends (and other sources) that all of the lines were "too high" I started to get more interested in the favorites. There had also been some huge run w/ underdogs heading into the weekend... Something like 14 out of the last 15 dogs had covered (going back to last year, obviously). I generally operate on the assumption that most people are wrong... And groups of people in agreement are even more wrong.

But beyond that, I just thought all of the favorites were better teams, playing at home, and coming off a couple of weeks of rest. The Chargers had a great road record, but this was their 2nd east coast game in a row... And it is pretty rare to have such a small number on the Pats at home.

Of course, I liked the Saints more than any other favorite and that was the one that didn't cover, so whatever. Sometimes you get lucky (3-1 this week), sometimes you don't (0-3-1 last week).

I love the Chiefs this week. You have a Patriots team that looked as good as they've looked all season going on the road to play a KC team that has heard a ton about how they are going to choke. Patrick Mahomes seems like a guy who couldn't give a fuck about that stuff... In fact, he seems like a big stage kind of a guy. No doubt, the Patriots D will show him some looks he probably hasn't seen before, but I think he'll be able to handle it just fine. My bigger concern would be the KC defense stopping the Patriots... But that offense has been very average (or worse) on the road. Unless Chris Hogan magically becomes a deep threat again, or Gronk suddenly regains the ability to get separation, I don't think the Patriots will be able to keep pace w/ the KC offense.

Of course, I'll probably be wrong. It happens a lot. Hopefully just ~40% of the time (or less).
Click to expand...

I’d guess they won’t need to keep pace. Michel is playing well so I’m sure you’ll see long drives keeping the chiefs o off the field and the pats hoping for a turnover from mahomes to steal one in KC
 
wsc8521s said:
Pilch's advice is with a -110 vig. Seems like some states are doing -115 or -120 (and worse on things like moneylines), especially ones with little sportsbook competition within the state
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Yeah... It is really disappointing that states are going with higher vigs.

Zero reason for me to drop my online sportsbook.

Hopefully this dynamic changes over time.
 
Pilchard said:
If you bet the exact same amount on every game (which you won't) and the vig is always 10% (it does vary sometimes), a bettor that wins 52.4% of his bets breaks even. So, to "win", the bettor only needs to hit 52.5% or more of his bets assuming that all bets are for the same amount and the vig is always 10%: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/math/

FWIW, it sounds like ATS bet the home favorites in the WC (0-3-1) and Divisional (3-1) round. With that strategy, you are 3-3-1. He is sticking with that mantra for the Championship game as the Chiefs are favored by 3 at home next weekend. FWIW, also like the Chiefs and the Rams/Saints under 57.
Click to expand...

Both O/Us are around 57, and the weather in KC is supposed to be single digits. Given that weather report and how well Suh and Donald shut down Dallas' prolific running game, both unders might be a good call.
 
BostonDeac said:
I’d guess they won’t need to keep pace. Michel is playing well so I’m sure you’ll see long drives keeping the chiefs o off the field and the pats hoping for a turnover from mahomes to steal one in KC
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Felt to me like most of Michel's running success was a by-product of all of the dump-offs to White early on. I suspect (hope) that KC will go with a different approach on D than the Chargers did.

But I agree... If the Pats D can get pressure on Mahomes like they did on Rivers, I think they have a good shot at stealing the game. I mean, if it's tight in the 4th quarter, you'd have to think the Pats have a better than 50/50 chance to win the game.
 
Pilchard said:
If you bet the exact same amount on every game (which you won't) and the vig is always 10% (it does vary sometimes), a bettor that wins 52.4% of his bets breaks even. So, to "win", the bettor only needs to hit 52.5% or more of his bets assuming that all bets are for the same amount and the vig is always 10%: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/math/

FWIW, it sounds like ATS bet the home favorites in the WC (0-3-1) and Divisional (3-1) round. With that strategy, you are 3-3-1. He is sticking with that mantra for the Championship game as the Chiefs are favored by 3 at home next weekend. FWIW, also like the Chiefs and the Rams/Saints under 57.
Click to expand...

If FOX and CBS were smart, they'd have Vinny from Queens in the booth with the two commentators to talk about the gambling aspect of the game. Much more informative than the token officiating dickhead that every network feels compelled to trot out during every broadcast - "Mike, what did you see?" "Well the ball hit the ground so it is incomplete". Once Rivers customarily shat the bed and that game was over in the first few minutes, at least the gambling expert could have kept talking about the spread, over/under, and other aspects to keep the audience.
 
good grief, browns haven't made the playoffs since 2002
 
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