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How Many Wins Will 2018-19 Wake Forest Basketball Have on Selection Sunday?

How many wins for WF on Selection Sunday (excluding exhibition)?

  • 0-11

    Votes: 23 17.3%
  • 12

    Votes: 20 15.0%
  • 13

    Votes: 28 21.1%
  • 14

    Votes: 15 11.3%
  • 15

    Votes: 14 10.5%
  • 16

    Votes: 9 6.8%
  • 17

    Votes: 12 9.0%
  • 18

    Votes: 7 5.3%
  • 19

    Votes: 2 1.5%
  • 20 or more

    Votes: 3 2.3%

  • Total voters
    133
  • Poll closed .
We have more talent that we did last year, but I struggle to find the wins on this schedule unless the young guys just come ready to play. Getting out of the Myrtle Beach Tournament with two wins would be big, but I worry about it coming together that early in the season if we're depending on a freshmen as our best player(s). Obviously it's pretty dependent on who we get matched with. Even giving ourselves two wins there and the absolute gimmies in our OOC schedule, where are the ACC wins going to come from? The ACC is loaded this year.

I think we get surprised at Richmond since it will be our first real road test for the young guys. I don't trust that we can go down to GT and win either. We never play well there and it will be our first conference game...no reason to expect us to suddenly start winning conference road games. Unless we win at Richmond or GT, I don't think we win a single away (minus the neutral sites) game this year.

Admittedly, I'm mostly going off last year's results for our opponents and my expectations for our new team. I haven't looked into detail at the non-Top 25 conference opponents to see if any of them are expected to be significantly worse this year than last. As a pessimist when it comes to Manning's ability to turn players into a team, I'll go with 12 total, 4 ACC wins:

NC A&T
2 in Myrtle Beach
Houston Baptist
Western Carolina
Charlotte
Gardner-Webb
Cornell
NC State
Boston College
Pitt
Miami
 
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Extremes have won the past two years -- only four outta 154 had us at 0-14 wins last year, and only 16 outta 137 had us at 19+ in '16-17.

Hard to see extremes on the high side winning this year
 
This is me being really optimistic: add at Richmond, at GT, catching a Top 25 ACC team sleeping, and Syracuse to get us to 16. I feel like FSU will come to Winston with something to play for in the final regular season game and I just don't see us winning an ACC tournament game from the bottom of the conference. I'd like to see the breakdown of some of the 15+ predictions above.
 
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When I go through the schedule game by game, I come up w/ 17 wins, but I've been saying all off-season that we'll exceed expectations this year, so I will say 18 wins.

Call it 9/10 OOC wins and 7/8 in the ACC + 1 in the ACC Tourney.

Bear Case:
7-5 (OOC), 3-15 (ACC), 0-1 (ACCT) = 10-21
Assumes we beat all of the doormats, but drop two of three in Myrtle Beach and lose to Davidson, @Richmond, @UT
Assumes we only win 3 ACC home games (BC/PITT/MIAMI?)

Base Case:
9-3 (OOC), 6-12 (ACC), 0-1 (ACCT) = 15-16
Assumes we drop 1 in Myrtle Beach, Lose @ Richmond, Lose @ UT
Assumes we win 5 home ACC games and 1 road ACC game

Bull Case:
11-1 (OOC), 9-9 (ACC), 1-1 (ACCT) = 21-11
Assumes we run the table, aside from @UT
Assumes we mostly hold serve at home (drop games to Duke/UNC/Louisville?), but get 3 road victories (@GT/@Miami/@Clemson?)
Young team gets better throughout the year... Wins an ACC game

I think you could obviously see better or worse than this, but I think those are the reasonable scenarios at each level. If we're worse, I don't think Manning makes it through the entire season.
 
Hard to imagine any more than 17 wins total going into selection Sunday.
 
When I go through the schedule game by game, I come up w/ 17 wins, but I've been saying all off-season that we'll exceed expectations this year, so I will say 18 wins.

Call it 9/10 OOC wins and 7/8 in the ACC + 1 in the ACC Tourney.

Bear Case:
7-5 (OOC), 3-15 (ACC), 0-1 (ACCT) = 10-21, KP: 140
Assumes we beat all of the doormats, but drop two of three in Myrtle Beach and lose to Davidson, @Richmond, @UT
Assumes we only win 3 ACC home games (BC/PITT/MIAMI?)

Base Case:
9-3 (OOC), 6-12 (ACC), 0-1 (ACCT) = 15-16 KP: 95
Assumes we drop 1 in Myrtle Beach, Lose @ Richmond, Lose @ UT
Assumes we win 5 home ACC games and 1 road ACC game

Bull Case:
11-1 (OOC), 9-9 (ACC), 1-1 (ACCT) = 21-11 KP:35
Assumes we run the table, aside from @UT
Assumes we mostly hold serve at home (drop games to Duke/UNC/Louisville?), but get 3 road victories (@GT/@Miami/@Clemson?)
Young team gets better throughout the year... Wins an ACC game

I think you could obviously see better or worse than this, but I think those are the reasonable scenarios at each level. If we're worse, I don't think Manning makes it through the entire season.

That seems about right. Unfortunately I think the bear case is probably a game or two worse than that though. Manning’s teams have shown a tendency to spiral when things aren’t going well and we will almost certainly blow a couple of close games down the stretch. The 10-21 (3-15) might be an accurate picture of how (not) good the team actually is with Manning coming up a couple of wins short of that (without the team being any worse).

I voted for the bull case because I honestly have no idea what to expect from this team and have already committed myself. If I were betting anything of value on it though, I’d probably go with 16 (6-12).

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t throw some Kenpom rankings on there.
 
That seems about right. Unfortunately I think the bear case is probably a game or two worse than that though. Manning’s teams have shown a tendency to spiral when things aren’t going well and we will almost certainly blow a couple of close games down the stretch. The 10-21 (3-15) might be an accurate picture of how (not) good the team actually is with Manning coming up a couple of wins short of that (without the team being any worse).

I voted for the bull case because I honestly have no idea what to expect from this team and have already committed myself. If I were betting anything of value on it though, I’d probably go with 16 (6-12).

So, basically, anywhere from 8 to 21 wins, but probably 16, and you voted for 21. At least you'll be able to say you predicted the season correctly before your self-ban...
 
This is me being really optimistic: add at Richmond, at GT, catching a Top 25 ACC team sleeping, and Syracuse to get us to 16. I feel like FSU will come to Winston with something to play for in the final regular season game and I just don't see us winning an ACC tournament game from the bottom of the conference. I'd like to see the breakdown of some of the 15+ predictions above.

I'll echo those sentiments...I went "optimistic" also with 16 wins. Still think we'll struggle to find a winning formula in ACC play, likely 7-11 is best case IMO. Normally I wouldn't vote with my "best case" but I'm going against the grain since y'all probably think I'm such a pessimist. ;-)
 
How many for Manning to keep his job but few of us will be satisfied with the season, and go into the offseason with a general sense of malaise? That many.
 
Melo leaving the #newbeginnings getting a jump on the mass exodus coming after another sub .500 season. Anyone care to revise their win projections, as I'm sure this signals the team chemistry is through the roof.
 
Melo leaving the #newbeginnings getting a jump on the mass exodus coming after another sub .500 season. Anyone care to revise their win projections, as I'm sure this signals the team chemistry is through the roof.

I’ll bump my projection up by two games as I’m sure this signals that the freshman are much better than expected and are so tight knit that Melo felt excluded and didn’t want to stick around to sit on the bench all year.
 
13 wins.

I don't see many wins after the conference schedule starts. I don't know who this team should beat in conference. This team should have a real shot at last place assuming Manning has not been spending his time learning how to coach defense. Who knows, maybe Manning has spent all off season learning a defensive system. Anything is possible.

Get your tickets for the OOC games before all hope is dashed.

This is my super hyped up optimistic view.
 
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