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Anual Minutes allocation guess-o-matic hoops men

I doubt Wynn will see much time this year. Even if he's a good shooter, recruits in his range don't just magically show up to campus ready to play 20 mpg over players that have either a) proven they can produce in college, or b) are top-100 recruits.

He's certainly not going to play more minutes than Childress, Chaundee, Hoard, or Sarr, and it's an extreme leap of faith to think he'll play more than Mucius or Johnson. At best, that makes him 7th man (which, I believe, is also incredibly optimistic for his prospects).

Minutes per game under Manning for the 7th-10th men (defined by minutes played, not skill/ability/position/etc):
7th man - Thompson (16.3), Childress (21.5), Collins (14.3), Leonard (17.4)
8th man - Sarr (14.6), Moore (7.8), Rondale (11.1), McClinton (14.1)
9th man - Mitchell (10.9), McClinton (5.6), McClinton (9.1), Rountree (11.2)
10th man - Eggleston (3.4), SJM (2.1), Van Horn (7.5), Washington (3.2)

At best, Wynn is probably 8th or 9th man and will likely see between 8-12 mpg.
 
WFUWaldo said:
I doubt Wynn will see much time this year. Even if he's a good shooter, recruits in his range don't just magically show up to campus ready to play 20 mpg over players that have either a) proven they can produce in college, or b) are top-100 recruits.

He's certainly not going to play more minutes than Childress, Chaundee, Hoard, or Sarr, and it's an extreme leap of faith to think he'll play more than Mucius or Johnson. At best, that makes him 7th man (which, I believe, is also incredibly optimistic for his prospects).

Minutes per game under Manning for the 7th-10th men (defined by minutes played, not skill/ability/position/etc):
7th man - Thompson (16.3), Childress (21.5), Collins (14.3), Leonard (17.4)
8th man - Sarr (14.6), Moore (7.8), Rondale (11.1), McClinton (14.1)
9th man - Mitchell (10.9), McClinton (5.6), McClinton (9.1), Rountree (11.2)
10th man - Eggleston (3.4), SJM (2.1), Van Horn (7.5), Washington (3.2)

At best, Wynn is probably 8th or 9th man and will likely see between 8-12 mpg.
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Yeah, I’ve been more bullish on Wynn than most, and I still had him 9th in the rotation in mpg.

I just expect he’ll see more run than Washington, Mitchell, or Eggleston did in their first years. Not a stretch, I guess.
 
knowell said:
Wanna bet? I would wager that Hoard will play some 5 surrounded by 4 guards. I don't know enough about all the new guards to know which ones will get the run, but you know Manning will find a way to get 4 at a time.

No guarantee that Sarr will be the 5th guy based on past performance.
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Not going to defend Manning’s lineup choices, or the few occasions he played 4 guards last year, but I will say that his preferred lineups (from a height/position standpoint) do seem to match his personnel (or at least his assessment of his personnel). Guards played 41% of the team’s minutes his first season compared to 62% last year. Both are extremes that represent less than ideal personnel situations ([Redacted] inheritance and unexpected departure of starting frontcourt respectively).

I think he’d prefer to be closer to years 2 and 3 (50% and 54%) which is typical of a college team with a slight preference for the three guard lineup (i.e. more offense). Whether he thinks he has the personnel to play that way, or whether that assessment is accurate, are entirely different matters.

I’m more concerned this year with his bias towards experience vs. talent than I am with his bias towards guards.
 
RChildress107 said:
I actually think Chill, Brown, Mucius, Hoard, Sarr could be the most “talented” (in terms of raw talent) lineup we’ve put on the floor in a very long time.
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That's the best case scenario, to get us to 13/16 instead of DFL. Mucius steps up and grabs the starting SF spot, and this lineup clicks:

PG: Chill
SG: Chaundee looks like vintage Jason Richardson out there
SF: Mucius
PF: Hoard becomes the next stud Deac 1st round draft pick NBA player who goes off against Duke for 26/12 and we still lose by 17
C: Sarr

Bench: a cluster, imho.
 
RChildress107 said:
I actually think Chill, Brown, Mucius, Hoard, Sarr could be the most “talented” (in terms of raw talent) lineup we’ve put on the floor in a very long time.
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I don't think we have seen enough of Mucius or Sarr to make that assessment. Mucius would have to be better than most players in his ranking and Sarr will have to make a huge leap.
Chill is a good guard but I don't see him on any all star teams next year. I do really like Brown and Hoard but am not sure that makes more than an average ACC team with a far below average coach.

I don't think there will be more talent on this team than last years team. Let's put our hope in chemistry and better coaching. Miracles do happen.
 
knowell said:
I don't think we have seen enough of Mucius or Sarr to make that assessment. Mucius would have to be better than most players in his ranking and Sarr will have to make a huge leap.
Chill is a good guard but I don't see him on any all star teams next year. I do really like Brown and Hoard but am not sure that makes more than an average ACC team with a far below average coach.

I don't think there will be more talent on this team than last years team. Let's put our hope in chemistry and better coaching. Miracles do happen.
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Overall I probably agree. The bench will likely be a disaster. But if those five play close to potential it would be the most talented lineup we’ve had this decade. That’s a big if, but still.
 
There’s no chance of this happening, but I’d like Manning to play the starters as much as possible (like Cuse or Duke) and just use Smart and whomever doesn’t start out of Mucius/Johnson as the primary subs.

And my boi Wynn, of course.

Only way it makes sense to run like 9 or 10 deep with this roster is if we press and/or try to run teams to death.
 
knowell said:
I don't think we have seen enough of Mucius or Sarr to make that assessment. Mucius would have to be better than most players in his ranking and Sarr will have to make a huge leap.
Chill is a good guard but I don't see him on any all star teams next year. I do really like Brown and Hoard but am not sure that makes more than an average ACC team with a far below average coach.

I don't think there will be more talent on this team than last years team. Let's put our hope in chemistry and better coaching. Miracles do happen.
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Sarr has a better than average chance of making that leap. He was rated the #1 player in the U17 Euro championships before he got to Wake. Doral was "next in line" in the big man list. Danny seems to prefer experienced players. Sarr needed rest from basketball for a short while. Sarr needed some Ryan Horn coaching to better hold his own against bigger, older guys.

He got a break from basketball. From limited info, he seems to have been a good student with Ryan Horn. Doral is gone. Sarr now is one of the (few) experienced guys on the Wake roster. Many players show the most improvement between freshman and sophomore seasons. So conditions are favorable him to make a big leap.
 
DeacsATS said:
There’s no chance of this happening, but I’d like Manning to play the starters as much as possible (like Cuse or Duke) and just use Smart and whomever doesn’t start out of Mucius/Johnson as the primary subs.

And my boi Wynn, of course.

Only way it makes sense to run like 9 or 10 deep with this roster is if we press and/or try to run teams to death.
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Also need to include Jamie Lewis (or somebody) as backup PG.I don't think Danny will play BChill 40 min per game.
 
Sarr was remarkably unproductive last year on a per minute basis. The potential is obviously there, but the evidence isn’t really there for a massive leap this year. We need a massive leap, but I would temper expectations a bit.
 
Strickland33 said:
Sarr was remarkably unproductive last year on a per minute basis. The potential is obviously there, but the evidence isn’t really there for a massive leap this year. We need a massive leap, but I would temper expectations a bit.
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I think Sarr was pretty worn down last season. From FIBA, then from battling Doral in practice daily. Doral had 75 lbs. on him last year.
 
Deaconblue said:
I think Sarr was pretty worn down last season. From FIBA, then from battling Doral in practice daily. Doral had 75 lbs. on him last year.
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Sarr really didn't have any down time for well over a year due to playing in school and for the national team.
 
DeacsATS said:
There’s no chance of this happening, but I’d like Manning to play the starters as much as possible (like Cuse or Duke) and just use Smart and whomever doesn’t start out of Mucius/Johnson as the primary subs.

And my boi Wynn, of course.

Only way it makes sense to run like 9 or 10 deep with this roster is if we press and/or try to run teams to death.
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You can say that about all of Manning's rosters. He prefers depth. Talent be damned.
 
Are we talking about 18-22 year-olds being worn out in the macro sense again? Of all the OGBoards excuses from the last 8ish years, this is my favorite one.
 
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RChildress107 said:
I actually think Chill, Brown, Mucius, Hoard, Sarr could be the most “talented” (in terms of raw talent) lineup we’ve put on the floor in a very long time.
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Is that lineup more talented than:
Crawford, Woods, Arians, Dinos, Collins ??
 
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