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2018-2019 MLB Hot Stove Thread

rjequalsmj said:
Sooooo nothing yesterday. I can't wait til philly gets no one and all the fans convince themselves they didn't want either guy anyway.
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If they don’t get either one, the reaction will be the exact opposite of that. You’ll probably love that as well.
 
The late Roy "Doc" Halladay going into Baseball HOF with no logo on his hat. Choices were Toronto, where he spent most of his career and Philly, where he had some of his highlights (perfect game). Family didn't want to choose. So neither one.
 
Deaconblue said:
The late Roy "Doc" Halladay going into Baseball HOF with no logo on his hat. Choices were Toronto, where he spent most of his career and Philly, where he had some of his highlights (perfect game). Family didn't want to choose. So neither one.
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Wow, I thought he said in the past if he got in it would be a Blue Jays cap. Moose is going with no team logo either.
 
rjequalsmj said:
Sooooo nothing yesterday. I can't wait til philly gets no one and all the fans convince themselves they didn't want either guy anyway.
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Care to place a wager? Phillies get at least 1 or Harper or Machado. I’ll go up to $1,000.
 
Not sure that's a fair straight up bet. Phil's gotta be like -300 to get at least 1.
 
Padres now in on Harper in addition to Machado. Meeting with Harper in Vegas...
 
Pitchers and catchers report in 10 or less days and still have a bunch of free agents, even outside of Harper/Machado/Keuchel. Gio Gonzalez, Moosetacos, Clay Bucholz, CarGo, Jose Iglesias, Marwin Gonzalez, Denard Span are all coming off above average years.

Mystery teams are everywhere on the top 2.
 
DaDeacs said:
Pitchers and catchers report in 10 or less days and still have a bunch of free agents, even outside of Harper/Machado/Keuchel. Gio Gonzalez, Moosetacos, Clay Bucholz, CarGo, Jose Iglesias, Marwin Gonzalez, Denard Span are all coming off above average years.

Mystery teams are everywhere on the top 2.
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The second tier position player free agents are in something of a holding pattern pending signings by the top 2. Their signings seem to be at least somewhat dependent on where the top 2 go (or don't go).

Pitchers to a lesser extent, primarily luxury tax issues.
 
Will we have another free agent spring training complex again?
 
Deaconblue said:
The second tier position player free agents are in something of a holding pattern pending signings by the top 2. Their signings seem to be at least somewhat dependent on where the top 2 go (or don't go).

Pitchers to a lesser extent, primarily luxury tax issues.
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Im not so sure about that - the true second tier players are already off the board (Pollock, Cutch, Brantley, Grandal) - it seems like its the tier of dudes that used to sign 3 year $30 million contracts that seem to have no home. Moose signed for $6 million super late last year, but I would have imagined 5 years ago, all of the guys I mentioned in my email are already signed with at least 3 year deals and $10M AAV. Maybe not Span because of his age.
 
Agents are behind how teams are evaluating players, half the teams aren't trying to win, and several big players are rebuilding or maxed out.
 
CheesePritchard said:
Agents are behind how teams are evaluating players, half the teams aren't trying to win, and several big players are rebuilding or maxed out.
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Right - which was part of the ARod piece where he said manny or bryce should sign a massive one year deal and come back next year once some players are off some books. Seems stupid though, the Cubs have plenty of money, are creating their own TV network - yes, they have the highest payroll they have ever had to open a season, but its not like there aren't ways to be flexible to sign a big deal, especially with big money coming off every year after this. Also, there have been major rumors the Cubs aren't spending this year because they want Arenado next year - cant imagine that is full reason, though.
 
Of the top 50 eligible free agents according to MLB Trade Rumors, 39 have signed.

Harper turned down $300 million for 10 years. Machado has an offer of $25 million a year for 7 years (which Machado's agent claims is under-stated). Kimbrell was asking for a 6-7 year contract which he was never going to get, and the next best FA Dallas Kuechel is over 30 and palpably regressed since his 2015 Cy Young season. The remaining free agents outside of maybe Marwin Gonzalez (Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Martin Maldonado, Bud Norris) all are question marks that aren't worthy of long term deals. I know the players are bitching that Harper and/or Maldonado aren't signing $400 million deals, but they simply don't make economic sense for a team that wants to build long term success. IMO, the complaints about the treatment of this year's free agency are largely meritless.
 
Pilchard said:
Of the top 50 eligible free agents according to MLB Trade Rumors, 39 have signed.

Harper turned down $300 million for 10 years. Machado has an offer of $25 million a year for 7 years (which Machado's agent claims is under-stated). Kimbrell was asking for a 6-7 year contract which he was never going to get, and the next best FA Dallas Kuechel is over 30 and palpably regressed since his 2015 Cy Young season. The remaining free agents outside of maybe Marwin Gonzalez (Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Martin Maldonado, Bud Norris) all are question marks that aren't worthy of long term deals. I know the players are bitching that Harper and/or Maldonado aren't signing $400 million deals, but they simply don't make economic sense for a team that wants to build long term success. IMO, the complaints about the treatment of this year's free agency are largely meritless.
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How many people signed a deal longer than 3 years? 1? 2? I get it, from the players point of view if this is their first and potentially only FA chance at our slightly past their prime, it sucks. Teams are getting "smarter" in regards to these deals - and players are settling for less. I would guess this is going to be the trend moving forward though - focus on shorter term deals to protect against bad contracts.
 
It would be stupid to sign Harper (or anyone really) for that money that long. He's an up and down, injury prone, average fielder, crybaby who was on some loaded Nats teams that never got it done post-season.
 
Pilchard said:
Of the top 50 eligible free agents according to MLB Trade Rumors, 39 have signed.

Harper turned down $300 million for 10 years. Machado has an offer of $25 million a year for 7 years (which Machado's agent claims is under-stated). Kimbrell was asking for a 6-7 year contract which he was never going to get, and the next best FA Dallas Kuechel is over 30 and palpably regressed since his 2015 Cy Young season. The remaining free agents outside of maybe Marwin Gonzalez (Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Martin Maldonado, Bud Norris) all are question marks that aren't worthy of long term deals. I know the players are bitching that Harper and/or Maldonado aren't signing $400 million deals, but they simply don't make economic sense for a team that wants to build long term success. IMO, the complaints about the treatment of this year's free agency are largely meritless.
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If 7/$175 is the new going rate for a 5-6 win player going into his age 26 seasons then I think major labor strife is coming when CBA expires.
 
Baseball's current economic system is built on waiting to put players in position to max out their economic leverage until after their 6th year on an MLB roster. Teams have figured out that long term investments on players from year #7 on are bad deals. The system needs to be tweaked so that either players become free agents earlier or that minimum salaries are significantly higher than $500K. The problem isn't that Bryce Harper will "only" make $30 million next year, but that Ronald Acuna and Walker Buehler will only make $500K.
 
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Pilchard said:
Baseball's current economic system is built on waiting to put players to max out their economic leverage until after their 6th year on an MLB roster. Teams have figured out that long term investments on players from year #7 on are bad deals. The system needs to be tweaked so that either players become free agents earlier or that minimum salaries are significantly higher than $500K. The problem isn't that Bryce Harper will "only" make $30 million next year, but that Ronald Acuna and Walker Buehler will only make $500K.
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I mean, thats not a baseball problem, if it even is a problem. Next year Alvin Kamara will make $850k and Jerrick McKinnon will make $10 million. Alex Smith will make $20 million and Patrick Mahomes will make $3 million. There are always going to be rookie deals - the service time issue will likely be fought over, and maybe moving up arb years, but making a roster would be impossible if there was no way to have some great talent at decent salaries - it goes against the whole idea of having a development system.
 
DaDeacs said:
I mean, thats not a baseball problem, if it even is a problem. Next year Alvin Kamara will make $850k and Jerrick McKinnon will make $10 million. Alex Smith will make $20 million and Patrick Mahomes will make $3 million. There are always going to be rookie deals - the service time issue will likely be fought over, and maybe moving up arb years, but making a roster would be impossible if there was no way to have some great talent at decent salaries - it goes against the whole idea of having a development system.
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Not saying that everyone should be a free-agent immediately, but maybe in year 5 instead of year 6. Also, the MLB minimum salary should be higher than $500K. There would still be a premium on developing your own talent, but the current MLB system keeps players from taking advantage of when their value is much higher. Baseball is never going back to the time when Albert Pujols signs a 10 year contract at age 32. It's a franchise killer.

BTW, at least in football Mahomes makes $4 million a year for his first 4 years in the NFL, and is a unrestricted free agent in year 5.

Finally, a system that keeps a stud like Vlad Guerrero out of the MLB when he is more than ready to play (and he will again start 2019 in AAA) is flawed.
 
CheesePritchard said:
If 7/$175 is the new going rate for a 5-6 win player going into his age 26 seasons then I think major labor strife is coming when CBA expires.
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Strike is happening get ready. They are going to have to drastically change the young player compensation/control system. If the players union is smart they'll also fight the bonus pools too, but I'm guessing they will give that up for benefits for current players.
 
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