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Election Day 2018

Brian Kemp is a horrible person, but he will win. Polls have McBath/Handel here in the 6th separated by a single point. Gonna be a fun night watching the returns.
 
LadyDeac03 said:
I've been going back and forth about whether I want to be around people or not. At this point I don't have any plans to go out. 2016 was rough, 2017 was good, but think I'd rather watch this one from my couch.

Is it too early to start drinking?
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To quote a former SCOTUS justice, it's 5:00 pm somewhere.
 
I had a 0:00:00 wait at 9:00 this morning. I don't know that I have ever waited more than a minute or two at the polling location I have gone to the last 5 years or so.
 
RChildress107 said:
Doubtful, especially on the Senate. And anecdotally at least, it seems like Dems have actually done a good job on the local level making this about healthcare. The national media hasn’t helped (or learned any lessons about how to responsibly cover politics apparently).

I think anything better than 35+ in the house and netting zero in the Senate is a huge win for Democrats and something to build on for 2020.
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They have done a terrible job highlighting healthcare in CA and other places.

The national media should have been irrelevant to the ad buys. Blackburn, McSally and Heller should have been toast over healthcare.

Because of the weakness and incompetence, it will be much closer than it should have been.
 
Is former boards poster Go actually Brian Kemp ? That's what I heard.
 
NC amendments

right to hunt and fish - pass
Expanding Victims' Rights - pass
Voter ID - pass
income tax cap - pass
judicial vacancies - fail
board of elections/ethics - fail
 
RJKarl said:
They have done a terrible job highlighting healthcare in CA and other places.

The national media should have been irrelevant to the ad buys. Blackburn, McSally and Heller should have been toast over healthcare.

Because of the weakness and incompetence, it will be much closer than it should have been.
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Agree on Heller but not Blackburn or McSally. NV is now purple, and with Heller's votes and Trump's low approval ratings, I would have expected Rosen to have had a slightly better working margin at this point. But AZ is still a fairly red state. I think DeConcini (sp?) was the last Dem senator there like 20 years ago. Any win there is a good win. And TN is effin' crimson red. I don't pretend to understand how this race has been pretty close other than Bredesen was a fairly popular gov and Blackburn is way right.
 
north carolina wants to amended its Constitution to include hunting and fishing as a fundamental right? lol
 
House Prediction:

Democrats win 50-55 seats.
 
AsesinoDeTortugas said:
I don't have any great reason to believe it's going to happen, but I have a feeling that, opposite to 2016, there are potentially some significant polling errors in some races. I'm calling Beto now, though I know I'm likely to be wrong. Just have a gut feeling that the youth vote in Texas is going to come up huge and that hasn't been wholly captured by polling to this point.
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Agreed, I voted for Beto. I think most center leaning independents will break for Beto, shit 80mil dollars spent better buy you a seat in the senate this is still America.
 
cville deac said:
Agree on Heller but not Blackburn or McSally. NV is now purple, and with Heller's votes and Trump's low approval ratings, I would have expected Rosen to have had a slightly better working margin at this point. But AZ is still a fairly red state. I think DeConcini (sp?) was the last Dem senator there like 20 years ago. Any win there is a good win. And TN is effin' crimson red. I don't pretend to understand how this race has been pretty close other than Bredesen was a fairly popular gov and Blackburn is way right.
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Calling Bredesen "fairly popular" in TN is a disservice to how much bipartisan support he had. I believe he left office with a 60+ favorable rating as a Democrat. That's nuts for any Confederate state.
 
My picks:

Democrats win back the House 235-200 (gain of 40 seats for the Democrats).

Senate Grouped by 538 Ratings (my picks next to them)

Likely R

(R) Cruz - Win
(R) Blackburn - Win

Lean R

(D) Heitkamp - Loss
(R) Hyde-Smith - Win

Tossup

(D) McCaskill - Win (very close vote - also will take a long time to resolve)
(R) Heller - Loss

Lean D

(D) Sinema - Win
(D) Nelson - Win
(D) Donnelly - Win (very close vote - do not think this will be called early)

Likely D

(D) Tester - Loss
(D) Menendez - Win (I don't think this is as close as some recent polls have it)
(D) Manchin - Win
(D) Smith - Win

Senate starts 42-23 for GOP with 35 seats up for election. Republicans add four safe seats, Democrats add 18 safe seats - total up to 46-41 GOP.

Democrats add: Missouri, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Indiana, West Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota (8 seats)
GOP adds: Tennessee, Texas, North Dakota, Mississippi, Montana (5 seats)

GOP holds the Senate 51-49.

Kemp wins Georgia and Gillum wins Florida (by an impressive margin).
 
ImTheCaptain said:
north carolina wants to amended its Constitution to include hunting and fishing as a fundamental right? lol
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I think they want to do this in response to a bill trying to be passed that creates some sort of quota/ticket system to the amount of fish that can be taken out of our fisheries. The idea being if they go that model commercial fisherman will be given all the tags and fishing licenses, and average sports fisherman will lose fishing rights off the coast.
 
RJKarl said:
They have done a terrible job highlighting healthcare in CA and other places.

The national media should have been irrelevant to the ad buys. Blackburn, McSally and Heller should have been toast over healthcare.

Because of the weakness and incompetence, it will be much closer than it should have been.
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Maybe in the house, though I hope you are wrong. But the math for winning the Senate never made any sense. The media won’t report it as such, but merely holding their ground in the Senate would be a win for Democrats.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
north carolina wants to amended its Constitution to include hunting and fishing as a fundamental right? lol
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That passed here a decade + ago, though I forget if it was an amendment or statute. My Dem state senator was the 1 who introduced it. We're in a fairly rural senate district - half this side of the Blue Ridge and half in the Valley. So he did that to maintain his solid NRA rating, but he's actually a pretty good guy. But my favorite anecdote from that in the general assembly was a female senator mockingly wanted to introduce a bill or amendment bestowing the right to shop.
 
Oh and just for "my back yard":

Warren wins by 26 points; Baker wins reelection for governor by 28 points; Question 1 (nurses) fails, but 2 (formally establishes Massachusetts in favor of 28th Amendment overriding Citizen's United and establishes citizen's committee to explore - there was no formal opposition to this and hardly any money raised against) and 3 (maintain existing protected class status for transgender folks under state law) both pass easily.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
I think they want to do this in response to a bill trying to be passed that creates some sort of quota/ticket system to the amount of fish that can be taken out of our fisheries. The idea being if they go that model commercial fisherman will be given all the tags and fishing licenses, and average sports fisherman will lose fishing rights off the coast.
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FFS, the only reason this amendment even exists is to solve a problem that doesn't exist and scare more conservative voters to the polls.
 
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