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Jaylen Hoard - He Gone

Ah. You were agreeing with us in a disagreeable way. Gotcha.

Nope. I was disagreeing with this statement, which could be very wrong - “Hoard should leave. He has nothing to gain by spening another year here.”
 
Hoard was projected to be drafted this year before he stepped on the court at Wake. Big difference between him and Collins. Heck, he may still be projected to be drafted right now.

Of course, and if so, he should go. Isn’t that exactly the gist of my first post?

He shouldn’t just go no matter what, he should make a smart decision to optimize his long term success.

You didn't say he had anything to gain by staying. In fact, you agree that he was already on draft boards before the season.

The first two 2 round mocks I've seen have him listed, one at #48 and one at #17 from only 5 weeks ago.
https://heavy.com/sports/2019/04/nba-mock-draft-two-rounds-latest-updated-predictions/
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-60-pick-nba-mock-draft-2-26-2019/

If your point is that he should go if he is likely to get drafted and the word out there is he's likely to get drafted, I'm not sure how you're disagreeing with us.
 
In the most recent ESPN mock draft, Hoard is listed at #50. That's before any workouts or anything.
 
Yep. He has measurables and he was productive. The knocks on him can be attributed to coaching.
 
Players come back to school all the time and improve their draft stock, which is incredibly important for any given player. Players can go from “projected to be undrafted” to first round picks after a year in college. That’s what John Collins did. If the evaluators tell Jaylen he’ll be a first round pick, then he should go. If they tell him a year could really improve his stock, he should listen to them.

This is the critical assertion that needs to be questioned.

I am totally confident that if John Collins had left school after this freshman year to play basketball professionally, his current standing as an NBA player would be very similar to what it is now.

Given how good he was as a soph (and how productive he was as a freshman), it's easy to think he'd be spotted as a standout during pre-draft workouts and been drafted and prove himself that way. But even if he hadn't been drafted, he'd go to the G-League and dominate there (instead of doing so in college), and would be quickly scooped up by an NBA team.

Points being:
1) Decisions should be made top optimize for future success, not optimizing for draft pick.
2) John Collins is responsible for his success, not Wake Forest -- and there seems little reason to think Collins would have developed less / slower playing professionally than as a student-athlete with restricted hours on coaching.

There are plenty of reasons to stay in school, but I don't think any revolve around optimizing for success playing professional basketball.
 
Top 30 Recruits in the ACC the last few seasons and what they did... For reference in terms of Hoard.

Class of 2016:
#2 - Harry Giles (Duke) - NBA
#4 - Jayson Tatum (Duke) - NBA
#7 - Dennis Smith Jr (NCSU) - NBA
#8 - Jonathan Isaac (FSU) - NBA
#13 - Frank Jackson (Duke) - NBA
#14 - Marques Bolden (Duke) - STILL AT DUKE - BUST
#24 - VJ King (Louisville) - STILL AT LOUISVILLE - BUST
#25 - Tony Bradley (UNC) - NBA
#27 - Dewan Huell (Miami) - Tested waters for NBA Draft after Sophomore Year, changed name to Dewan Hernandez... Ruled ineligible for accepting benefits from agent - NBA Draft 2019?
#28 - Bruce Brown (Miami) - NBA Draft after Sophomore Year - Picked #42 by DET; Finished #15 in NBA minutes of those drafted

Class of 2017:
#1 - Marvin Bagley (Duke) - NBA
#6 - Trevon Duval (Duke) - NBA
#7 - Wendell Carter (Duke) - NBA
#16 - Lonnie Walker (Miami) - NBA
#17 - Gary Trent Jr (Duke) - NBA
#27 - Malik Williams (Louisville) - PROBABLY RETURNING TO LOUISVILLE FOR JUNIOR SEASON (not quite a bust)
#28 - MJ Walker (FSU) - PROBABLY RETURNING TO FSU FOR JUNIOR SEASON (OK, but not NBA good)
#30 - Jalek Felton (UNC) - TRANSFER/KICKED OFF TEAM; Playing in Finland

Tough to say who is the best comp for Hoard. His numbers were ad good as anyone close to his ranking in those last 2 years. Bruce Brown? Not sure if he helped himself by coming back to Miami for his Sophomore season.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (VT) was #40 in the Class of 2017 and he definitely helped his draft ranking by returning to Virginia Tech. Chaundee Brown was ranked #36 and he continues to help himself... But he hasn't really had NBA buzz either year.

Hoard probably goes... But I have no idea if he'll get drafted (and/or stick in the NBA). Seems like a guy with a lot of very good skills who does nothing elite. I'm probably alone on this, but I think he'd help himself out with another year at Wake... The biggest caveat is that he probably needs a better PG than Childress, and that's not going to happen. So, again, he probably leaves after doing enough in workouts to feel like he has a shot at getting drafted in the 2nd round.
 
Oh I think he would come back to a better team with a better coach and better teammates.
 
Oh I think he would come back to a better team with a better coach and better teammates.

What makes you say that? I obviously can't speak for him, or read his mind, but it seems like the team liked each other (and Manning) this season.

If he leaves, I think it'll just be because that's the advice he's given... And because he's had it in his mind that he's one and done from the start.
 
Hoard reminds me a lot of Mo Harkless, fwiw.

During his one season at St. John's (11-17 overall), Harkless averaged 15.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 36.1 minutes per game (Hoard's per-36 numbers, for reference, are 15.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists). He was RSCI #38 coming out of high school and was drafted 15th by the Magic. He's also 6'9, 220 with length and athleticism, and plays SF and PF.

Harkless is now seven years into his NBA career and has started over half of his games played while averaging 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.0 steals over the course of his career.
 
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Sophomores drafted in 2018:

Round 1:
Miles Bridges - #12
Donte DiVincenzo - #17 (RS Soph)
Kevin Huerter - #19
Josh Okogie - #20
Robert Williams - #27

Round 2:
Bruce Brown - #42
Justin Jackson - #43
Hamidou Diallo - #45
DeAnthony Melton - #46
Tony Carr - #51
Shake Milton - #54

I don't know enough about most of these guys to say whether or not they benefitted from a 2nd season in college... Or if they left a year too late.
 
Sophomores drafted in 2018:

Round 1:
Miles Bridges - #12
Donte DiVincenzo - #17 (RS Soph)
Kevin Huerter - #19
Josh Okogie - #20
Robert Williams - #27

Round 2:
Bruce Brown - #42
Justin Jackson - #43
Hamidou Diallo - #45
DeAnthony Melton - #46
Tony Carr - #51
Shake Milton - #54

I don't know enough about most of these guys to say whether or not they benefitted from a 2nd season in college... Or if they left a year too late.

Two of the first rounders didn't help themselves by returning (Bridges and Williams). Williams dropped like a rock due to his personal immaturity rather his play. The other three had no shot at going after frosh year.
 
Williams, Brown, Jackson, and Diallo definitely didn't benefit from a second year. In fairness, though, Diallo was basically a freshman.

Bridges's stock fell a bit, iirc, but I don't think returning really helped or hurt him.

It's safe to say that DiVincenzo, Huerter, Okogie, and Melton benefited from coming back.

I don't know if Carr and Milton necessarily benefited and probably should have returned for another year if we're being honest.
 
What makes you say that? I obviously can't speak for him, or read his mind, but it seems like the team liked each other (and Manning) this season.

If he leaves, I think it'll just be because that's the advice he's given... And because he's had it in his mind that he's one and done from the start.

I say that because he would have more reasons to come back. It’s easier to leave a loser than a winner.
 
I say that because he would have more reasons to come back. It’s easier to leave a loser than a winner.

Gotcha. I’d probably argue the opposite... If Wake hadn’t sucked this year, he may have been heralded enough to leave this year (without as much debate, at least).

But who knows.
 
Again, Mo Harkless left after a 11-15 season at St. John's and worked his way into the lottery. Similar stats and measureables.

It's the information age, y'all. NBA teams have been following Hoard all year, even if the national punditry and press hasn't expressed much interest.
 
Williams, Brown, Jackson, and Diallo definitely didn't benefit from a second year. In fairness, though, Diallo was basically a freshman.

Bridges's stock fell a bit, iirc, but I don't think returning really helped or hurt him.

It's safe to say that DiVincenzo, Huerter, Okogie, and Melton benefited from coming back.

I don't know if Carr and Milton necessarily benefited and probably should have returned for another year if we're being honest.

Some of their draft positions went up. That doesn’t mean they benefitted.

If John Collins had come back for his junior year, he probably would have been a top 10 pick, maybe top 5. Doesn’t mean he would have benefitted.
 
You don't think million dollar increases in income over the lives of their rookie scale deals (for DiVincenzo, Huerter, and Okogie) and guaranteed contracts (for Melton) mean that they benefited from coming back? DD and Huerter played their way into the first round. I can't imagine Okogie boosting his stock any more than he did already while playing for GT.

Maybe Collins would have benefited from name recognition, but I doubt he could have had a statistically better junior season. The biggest knocks on Collins as a prospect were a function of lack of interest in playing defense and his wingspan. But you're right. He probably could have played his way up in a shallower draft.
 
Gotcha. I’d probably argue the opposite... If Wake hadn’t sucked this year, he may have been heralded enough to leave this year (without as much debate, at least).

But who knows.

Sure, but if he could return to a team that was expected to make the tournament as opposed to struggling, he would have more to comeback to.
 
Some of their draft positions went up. That doesn’t mean they benefitted.

If John Collins had come back for his junior year, he probably would have been a top 10 pick, maybe top 5. Doesn’t mean he would have benefitted.

I don’t understand this argument. As Strickland’s post indicates, draft position strongly influences how much money one makes.
 
You don't think million dollar increases in income over the lives of their rookie scale deals (for DiVincenzo, Huerter, and Okogie) and guaranteed contracts (for Melton) mean that they benefited from coming back? DD and Huerter played their way into the first round. I can't imagine Okogie boosting his stock any more than he did already while playing for GT.

Maybe Collins would have benefited from name recognition, but I doubt he could have had a statistically better junior season. The biggest knocks on Collins as a prospect were a function of lack of interest in playing defense and his wingspan. But you're right. He probably could have played his way up in a shallower draft.

I think being a year closer to free agency outweighs the rookie scale differences.

The key question is whether a player develops more in college or playing professionally in a lower league (G-League or International). To me, it’s a no-brainer if a player is only in school for basketball.
 
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