cville deac
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Sign of things to come. Iowa is getting a much larger dose of these candidates than everyone else.
If you read more about the polling, Biden and Sanders don't do as well with those more likely to caucus. I like Warren and Pete's chances of finishing 1 and 2 in Iowa. I think they're going to blow up after the first debate and the national numbers will look close to this.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/poli...en-sanders-warren-buttigieg-harris/index.html
Sanders should do well in IA because it's a caucus state. He either wiped Clinton out or narrowly lost in the caucus states in 2016. Where he mostly got wiped out was in primary states. And I had said this a few months ago - that with most of those caucus states moving to primaries this time around was not good news for Sanders. The reason he did so well in caucus states in 2016 was his support is extremely deep with his devoted followers but not wide. So if he finishes anywhere outside of 2nd in IA, that's a really bad result for him. I would think the candidate most hurt by caucuses this time would be Biden because of his very wide but pretty shallow support. No one is dying to see Joe as president - his supporters are basically saying that he polls by far the best against Trump and he's the only 1 with the potential coattails to retake the senate. Biden is also not helped by such a heavy concentration in IA and NH because everybody spends so damn much time there. He's better off on a Super Tuesday type day where there are like 10 states to be contested, and the voters don't get to have presidential candidates in their living rooms. And the smart move for Biden to make in IA is to back Obama on free trade. Too many Dem candidates are still anti free trade, and IA is getting hammered more than any other state by Trump's tariffs. If he's smart, he'll be telling Iowans about how he and Obama negotiated the TPP and how great that would have been for US farmers.