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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

Sign of things to come. Iowa is getting a much larger dose of these candidates than everyone else.

If you read more about the polling, Biden and Sanders don't do as well with those more likely to caucus. I like Warren and Pete's chances of finishing 1 and 2 in Iowa. I think they're going to blow up after the first debate and the national numbers will look close to this.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/poli...en-sanders-warren-buttigieg-harris/index.html

Sanders should do well in IA because it's a caucus state. He either wiped Clinton out or narrowly lost in the caucus states in 2016. Where he mostly got wiped out was in primary states. And I had said this a few months ago - that with most of those caucus states moving to primaries this time around was not good news for Sanders. The reason he did so well in caucus states in 2016 was his support is extremely deep with his devoted followers but not wide. So if he finishes anywhere outside of 2nd in IA, that's a really bad result for him. I would think the candidate most hurt by caucuses this time would be Biden because of his very wide but pretty shallow support. No one is dying to see Joe as president - his supporters are basically saying that he polls by far the best against Trump and he's the only 1 with the potential coattails to retake the senate. Biden is also not helped by such a heavy concentration in IA and NH because everybody spends so damn much time there. He's better off on a Super Tuesday type day where there are like 10 states to be contested, and the voters don't get to have presidential candidates in their living rooms. And the smart move for Biden to make in IA is to back Obama on free trade. Too many Dem candidates are still anti free trade, and IA is getting hammered more than any other state by Trump's tariffs. If he's smart, he'll be telling Iowans about how he and Obama negotiated the TPP and how great that would have been for US farmers.
 
Biden is getting desperate.

 
Biden is getting desperate.


No, not desperate, though you desperately want to paint him as such. But just stupid and yeah, a little gross. He needs better campaign management with someone smart having veto power over bad ideas. Biden is the Lamar Jackson of the race - he's good for a couple of fumbles every week. I still think he should be promoting free trade in IA.
 
The thing about Biden is that he is toast if he’s not in the lead by a considerable margin.
 
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The thing about Biden is that he is toast if he’s not in the lead by a considerable margin.

Not necessarily true. He needs to stay in the top 2-3 through the first 3 states, which won't be good for him - 2 because they are caucus states. It's late February to early March where he needs to have a good week - that's when you have SC and Super Tuesday. If he has a bad Super Tuesday, that's bad for him. OTOH, if he has a little lead going into SC and then performs well in SC and on Super Tuesday, it could be all over.

With Joe, it all comes down to electability - both his own and the perceived weaknesses of his opponents. Harris, Warren and Sanders are coastal elites who don't all poll well in the south and midwest. Buttigieg, who I readily concede is the most talented of the lot, is a gay mayor and political novice from a city not much larger than Cville. What Joe can't afford is for a major hole to be poked into that perceived electability. That could occur 2 ways. He can have a Hyde Amendment fumble every week and that won't matter. But at his age, he can't afford to be perceived as having lost it, so he must be perceived as energetic and must avoid too many senior moments. The other way this could happen is for Dem voters to become convinced that there is another candidate who is just as electable as Joe. We're certainly not there yet, and I don't know that we ever get there with Harris, Warren or Sanders for the reason stated above. With Klobuchar, Beto and the governors all having failed to launch, Buttigieg may be in the best position to convince the public that he's the best chance of beating Trump. I guess the other thing that could happen is for Trump to become so unpopular that even a Warren or Sanders could coast to an EC win. And we're not there yet either.
 
"What Joe can't afford is for a major hole to be poked into that perceived electability."

Yeah. That was my point. Not having a lead pokes into electability.
 
I don't think Biden will be the nominee. He has too many skeletons in the closet and not enough achievements. Plus, I don't think that he is all that smart. His career has been based on fortuitously showing up in the right places.
 
Not necessarily true. He needs to stay in the top 2-3 through the first 3 states, which won't be good for him - 2 because they are caucus states. It's late February to early March where he needs to have a good week - that's when you have SC and Super Tuesday. If he has a bad Super Tuesday, that's bad for him. OTOH, if he has a little lead going into SC and then performs well in SC and on Super Tuesday, it could be all over.

With Joe, it all comes down to electability - both his own and the perceived weaknesses of his opponents. Harris, Warren and Sanders are coastal elites who don't all poll well in the south and midwest. Buttigieg, who I readily concede is the most talented of the lot, is a gay mayor and political novice from a city not much larger than Cville. What Joe can't afford is for a major hole to be poked into that perceived electability. That could occur 2 ways. He can have a Hyde Amendment fumble every week and that won't matter. But at his age, he can't afford to be perceived as having lost it, so he must be perceived as energetic and must avoid too many senior moments. The other way this could happen is for Dem voters to become convinced that there is another candidate who is just as electable as Joe. We're certainly not there yet, and I don't know that we ever get there with Harris, Warren or Sanders for the reason stated above. With Klobuchar, Beto and the governors all having failed to launch, Buttigieg may be in the best position to convince the public that he's the best chance of beating Trump. I guess the other thing that could happen is for Trump to become so unpopular that even a Warren or Sanders could coast to an EC win. And we're not there yet either.

Delaware is on the East coast, just FYI
 
The Trailer: In Iowa, polls and the ground game start to clarify a competitive race for the 2020 caucuses

It's easy to describe the Democratic primaries in two ways: Joe Biden is running ahead, helped by the pileup of candidates behind him. Last night's benchmark poll clarified both story lines. First: The vast majority of Democratic candidates are nowhere close to becoming viable in Iowa. ("Viability" means getting 15 percent or more in a caucus room.) Second: Biden is running behind previous "front-runners" at this point in previous cycles. At a similar point in 2007, John Edwards led the Iowa field with 29 percent support; Hillary Clinton led with 57 percent. And that's why so many candidates continue to see a path past Biden.

But at this moment, it's really Warren who shows the most room to grow in the state, with Harris not far behind. Warren now has the highest net favorable rating among Democratic voters; she and Harris are the second choice of the most voters, each getting 14 percent of them. Cory Booker is being "actively considered" by the most voters, 36 percent, but Harris and Warren are close behind; 32 percent of voters say they're at least considering support for them. Also in the "actively considering" club: Beto O'Rourke, who despite tumbling as a "first choice" is still being considered by 33 percent of voters.
 
Delaware is on the East coast, just FYI

Yes, I'm actually aware of that. I'm also aware that he's significantly outpolling his competitors in battleground state polls - states like AZ, TX, NC, FL, PA, MI and a few others. I see no other reason to vote for Joe - he's too old, and he's a walking gaffe machine with a seemingly inexplicable teflon coating. But if he can beat Trump easily, whereas it's a coin flip with the others, that's why so many folks are on the Biden train currently.
 
Great news for the Tunnels Left - journalists Rachel Maddow and Chuck Todd will be moderating the 2 NBC democratic debates!

 
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