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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

Based on percentages like 50 to 48% and 49 to 48%? Those numbers indicate to me that both parties have bases that go across the income stratas with the dems leaning lower income to a small extent

What these numbers tell me is that Trump's support is not, on the whole, working class though. That was the original point. And the people who didn't vote fell into those general categories too.

And more than half (56%) of nonvoters reported annual family incomes under $30,000. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents made up a 55% majority of nonvoters; about four-in-ten (41%) nonvoters were Republicans and Republican leaners.

Here's a good roundup: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...yth-most-trump-voters-were-not-working-class/
 
Okay, it's now a trend. There are a couple of national polls and 2 state polls the last 2 days showing Warren ahead of Biden. Biden and Sanders are ahead of her by a little in OH (strengthening some folks' thoughts that OH leans populist and anti-female). Meanwhile, Trump's favorability ratings remain in the 41-42% average. I know a lot of folks here are anti-Biden, but you cannot like the reason that he is now losing in the polls. He's the friggin' victim of the Ukraine situation, and his poll numbers have been heading south last week and this week, while Trump's poll numbers remain exactly the same. If Trump can make this happen in the middle of an impeachment inquiry, why can't the same sort of thing happen to Warren this time next year? Our country has lost its collective mind. Farewell to the republic.
 
It was going to happen eventually. Warren has been trending up for months. What sucks for Biden supporters is Warren is going to get her "I don't give a damn about Hillary's emails" moment and that's going to help her even more.
 
Okay, it's now a trend. There are a couple of national polls and 2 state polls the last 2 days showing Warren ahead of Biden. Biden and Sanders are ahead of her by a little in OH (strengthening some folks' thoughts that OH leans populist and anti-female). Meanwhile, Trump's favorability ratings remain in the 41-42% average. I know a lot of folks here are anti-Biden, but you cannot like the reason that he is now losing in the polls. He's the friggin' victim of the Ukraine situation, and his poll numbers have been heading south last week and this week, while Trump's poll numbers remain exactly the same. If Trump can make this happen in the middle of an impeachment inquiry, why can't the same sort of thing happen to Warren this time next year? Our country has lost its collective mind. Farewell to the republic.

Maybe, just maybe, this is the problem with the narrow focus of the impeachment inquiry. The Ukraine situation does paint Joe Biden in a bad light because of Hunter. Did Joe use his influence to get Hunter a job for $550k/month on an oil company board that he's not qualified for? There's a rich tapestry of govt corruption and we're being asked by Pelosi to look at one string that happens to also implicate Biden. Obviously it should implicate Trump too, but why not make an appeal to the American people on the basis of everything else he's done wrong? Republicans are just going to obfuscate and drag out this Ukraine thing and make it about Biden. Trump's numbers are staying the same because most people look at the situation where he's breaking shit every day with a horrible trade war and unfair tax cuts and inciting racial violence and say "wait this is what we're supposed to be mad about?"
 
It was going to happen eventually. Warren has been trending up for months. What sucks for Biden supporters is Warren is going to get her "I don't give a damn about Hillary's emails" moment and that's going to help her even more.

Many of us have been predicting this over the last 2-3 months. That's so not the point. The point is the reason his numbers have dipped. It's not because of a poor debate performance or yet another gaffe. It's because of Monica Zelensky. And if it can happen to Biden now, the same thing can happen to Warren next year over a trumped up Trump scandal that he is able to drag her into. Xi, you need to look into how Pocahontas got her job at Harvard, and maybe we can relook at this tariff war. He's abusing his office, yet it's her poll numbers that drop because he can say or do anything and his 40+% will follow him to the apocalypse.
 
I see what you're saying, but we've been saying for months Biden has thin support and he's only running on electability. Not sure of the latest polls, but polls earlier this week said Warren was gaining big among black voters. That was due as well.

I don't think we can say Trump acts on Warren would have the same impact. But your fears are definitely worth discussing.
 
Trump is going to come up with wild conspiracy theories and try to drag down the nominee no matter who they are. It's his only play, make his opponent appear as bad as he is in the hopes that enough people stay home or vote 3rd party.
 
Maybe, just maybe, this is the problem with the narrow focus of the impeachment inquiry. The Ukraine situation does paint Joe Biden in a bad light because of Hunter. Did Joe use his influence to get Hunter a job for $550k/month on an oil company board that he's not qualified for? There's a rich tapestry of govt corruption and we're being asked by Pelosi to look at one string that happens to also implicate Biden. Obviously it should implicate Trump too, but why not make an appeal to the American people on the basis of everything else he's done wrong? Republicans are just going to obfuscate and drag out this Ukraine thing and make it about Biden. Trump's numbers are staying the same because most people look at the situation where he's breaking shit every day with a horrible trade war and unfair tax cuts and inciting racial violence and say "wait this is what we're supposed to be mad about?"

Yeah they need to be pulling in that repository of discussions with other leaders to see what other treason he’s been up to.
 
Trump is going to come up with wild conspiracy theories and try to drag down the nominee no matter who they are. It's his only play, make his opponent appear as bad as he is in the hopes that enough people stay home or vote 3rd party.

Right. And frankly Democrats need to go on offense with this. Start pushing news on the wild truths about Trump to Trump voters. Get them to question their support and get them to stay home.
 
Trump is going to come up with wild conspiracy theories and try to drag down the nominee no matter who they are. It's his only play, make his opponent appear as bad as he is in the hopes that enough people stay home or vote 3rd party.

Probably good for Warren that Trump only sees Biden as a possible opponent right now
 
Right. And frankly Democrats need to go on offense with this. Start pushing news on the wild truths about Trump to Trump voters. Get them to question their support and get them to stay home.

"here's a theory: trump is an idiot"
 
What interests me most about the most recent polls is that it seems like more support is being siphoned from Biden than Sanders.

1) it means that Biden’s support is probably as weak as has been postulated and many voters were either a) not paying attention yet and once they did they found a new candidate, or b) they were paying attention and Warren has convinced them that she’s a better candidate than Biden.

2) it means that Warren still has a lot of growth potential. Sanders has been averaging 15-17% for over a month now and doesn’t seem to be close to making similar gains that Warren is. And with health issues possibly expediting his leaving the race + not great Iowa numbers, Sanders supporters will have to go somewhere. I could see 2-4% trickling off to lower-tier candidates, but the vast majority latching onto Warren makes sense. If Bernie can’t go, then Warren stands to gain double digits in a quick manner somewhere in the reasonably near future.

If Warren can pull off the double in Iowa and New Hampshire, the momentum might just be too much for Biden. His campaign has been largely in maintenance mode the whole year and having to flip the switch to a much more aggressive campaign would be tough to do.
 
Good post. I also think once more candidates drop out, most of their support will slide to Warren. If they were on board with Biden and Sanders, I think they'd already support them. Most people who are lined up for candidates like Klob, Beto, and Castro are probably rejecting Sanders and Biden.
 
2) it means that Warren still has a lot of growth potential. Sanders has been averaging 15-17% for over a month now and doesn’t seem to be close to making similar gains that Warren is. And with health issues possibly expediting his leaving the race + not great Iowa numbers, Sanders supporters will have to go somewhere. I could see 2-4% trickling off to lower-tier candidates, but the vast majority latching onto Warren makes sense. If Bernie can’t go, then Warren stands to gain double digits in a quick manner somewhere in the reasonably near future.

Or they could just goat **** the entire country again.
 
Probably good for Warren that Trump only sees Biden as a possible opponent right now

More like he saw Biden as his toughest general election opponent and is now getting 1 of the 3 he most wanted by way of his own scandal. Look, I've been on the Pete train and have been thinking that Joe has been showing his age more than the other 70+ candidates, so I've been doubting that Joe was going to make it over the next 13 months. About a year ago, there was a piece, I think in Politico, talking to Pub strategists as to who they most wanted to run against and who they were most afraid of. The 3 they most wanted to run against were Gillibrand, Sanders and Warren. And the 2 they feared the most at the time were Biden and Booker. I don't mind so much Biden losing support, but I'm extremely concerned about the reason he is losing support.

BTW, this is how Watergate started - Nixon engaging in criminal conduct and dirty tricks in order to get his preferred opponent - McGovern.
 
More like he saw Biden as his toughest general election opponent and is now getting 1 of the 3 he most wanted by way of his own scandal. Look, I've been on the Pete train and have been thinking that Joe has been showing his age more than the other 70+ candidates, so I've been doubting that Joe was going to make it over the next 13 months. About a year ago, there was a piece, I think in Politico, talking to Pub strategists as to who they most wanted to run against and who they were most afraid of. The 3 they most wanted to run against were Gillibrand, Sanders and Warren. And the 2 they feared the most at the time were Biden and Booker. I don't mind so much Biden losing support, but I'm extremely concerned about the reason he is losing support.

BTW, this is how Watergate started - Nixon engaging in criminal conduct and dirty tricks in order to get his preferred opponent - McGovern.

And what great candidates Biden and Booker turned out to be! I'm definitely going to trust the judgment of Republican strategists in 2019. Definitely.
 
And what great candidates Biden and Booker turned out to be! I'm definitely going to trust the judgment of Republican strategists in 2019. Definitely.

Don't be naive. As to Booker, I was kinda surprised that he didn't generate much interest, though I can't say I was a big fan in the 1st place. I was also a bit surprised that Inslee and Klobuchar never generated interest. From a Pub perspective, the problem with a Booker, or even more so with Biden, is you're having to play defense over a larger electoral map. You're going to have to defend NC, FL, AZ and maybe GA and TX. I think a Warren and a Sanders, with their populist policies, will be extremely competitive with Trump in the midwest states that Clinton lost or almost lost - PA, MI, WI and MN. But neither has much of a chance to compete strongly in the more conservative yet purple southern and mountain west states. So with Sanders now looking likely out of it and Warren extremely likely to get the nomination, winning the EC comes down to a smaller handful of states. Win back PA, MI & WI and hold MN, VA, NH and NV. Do that, and you eke out a 278-260 electoral win. And you can lose a NH or NV, but you can't lose VA. Trump isn't popular in VA, but Warren won't be overly popular either. Hillary won VA by 4%. I think Warren can hold it due to Trump's unpopularity, but it won't be by a whole lot.
 
Don't be naive. As to Booker, I was kinda surprised that he didn't generate much interest, though I can't say I was a big fan in the 1st place. I was also a bit surprised that Inslee and Klobuchar never generated interest. From a Pub perspective, the problem with a Booker, or even more so with Biden, is you're having to play defense over a larger electoral map. You're going to have to defend NC, FL, AZ and maybe GA and TX. I think a Warren and a Sanders, with their populist policies, will be extremely competitive with Trump in the midwest states that Clinton lost or almost lost - PA, MI, WI and MN. But neither has much of a chance to compete strongly in the more conservative yet purple southern and mountain west states. So with Sanders now looking likely out of it and Warren extremely likely to get the nomination, winning the EC comes down to a smaller handful of states. Win back PA, MI & WI and hold MN, VA, NH and NV. Do that, and you eke out a 278-260 electoral win. And you can lose a NH or NV, but you can't lose VA. Trump isn't popular in VA, but Warren won't be overly popular either. Hillary won VA by 4%. I think Warren can hold it due to Trump's unpopularity, but it won't be by a whole lot.

I’m shocked that it all comes down to VA. Shocked!
 
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